Airline Pilot Central Forums - Delta's Anderson gives "bleak assessment"

My personal opinion is that we will see significant furloughs during the next few years. It matters not what the company says at the moment, as it has always been behind the power curve economically. We were still hiring when the recessionary writing was on the wall in early 2001. In March of that year, Fred Reid gave a lounge (ATL) briefing with a notable look of fear on his face, discussing the airline forecast. I will remember the look on his face that day for the rest of my career. We were still hiring +/- 60 pilots a month and continued to do so until July, when the 16-July class was told they would be the last. A few months later, the 9-11 TERRORIST attacks compounded the problem and, as everyone knows, the furlough floodgates opened.

I flew with a lot of guys who did not think they would be furloughed…that it wouldn’t get to them. Sadly, it did. Quarter after quarter, both company and ALPA economists predicted an end was in sight. I saw a lot of graphs, produced by both sides, projecting revenues rebounding within 2-4 quarters….then another 2-4 quarters…then another 2-4 quarters…the ‘turnaround’ became a moving target. Meanwhile we continued to borrow money while losing millions/day (thanks Michelle B.). The problem: there was nothing on the horizon to stop the blood-letting; nothing significant to begin generating profits. Low cost competition was fierce, the business travelers were no longer paying the high ticket prices and the airline lost the ability to control prices. The seats were filling up but the prices weren’t supporting the operation. Both the company and union were asking themselves if this was merely cyclical or something more permanent. I remember the MEC Chair not wanting to admit the latter knowing it would mean the company would come asking for permanent concessions. The Walmart mentality was here to stay, however, and so was the debt; bankruptcy was inevitable.

Many would say that this time is different…I agree. It’s worse. This country continues to shed jobs at historic rates; this will continue and it will have a domino effect. To think it won’t eventually have a significant and long term effect on an industry reliant upon business and pleasure travel – discretionary spending – is simply unrealistic.

What concerns me the most is this country’s belief that borrowing nearly 1 trillion dollars (not including interest and what’s already owed) to ‘stimulate’ the economy with pork will turn things around. Once again, there is nothing on the horizon to turn things around. And this time there aren’t many credit lines left to be tapped to falsely prop up the economy as in recent years. It’s the debt – the national debt, the company debt and personal debt-and debt maturation/obligation. This country doesn’t produce anything anymore and we are not energy independant!!! I still don’t understand why an airline pilot would support the anti-drilling party. The lifeblood of our industry is gas…talk about voting your job (away)!

I wonder how long it will be before our new environmental czarstress – socialist and supporter of global governance (or American submission) – Carol Browner, proposes something like this: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/travelnews/4536352/Flights-could-be-rationed-says-environment-tsar-Lord-Turner.html
Think it can’t happen? Conditions of our expected bailout (you know, the bailout everyone is basing this get-too-big-to-fail-merger on) may just entail some of this global warming/climate change science…why should our gas-guzzling industry be excluded from the all the hope and change? It may not come to this because the economy will do the rationing naturally.

More on Ms. Browner: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/jan/12/obama-climate-czar-has-socialist-ties/

Delta has tapped a $1 Billion credit line to administer this merger, it seems. That is: 1,000,000,000 (doesn’t sound like much when our government throws around billions and trillions of our money with such reckless abandonment). http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123059871448041253.html
But we Americans no longer care about a few hundred “illions” with an “M” anymore, do we? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEfICUoWKBw

Like this country and our company’s pre-bankruptcy days, we are printing/‘raising’ cash – NOT generating it (revenue). This won’t end well for us…especially when most of the world hates us.

I wonder what the pre-merger DAL pilots will think when we all end up with pay rates equivalent to pre-merger NWA? I wonder if they will get to keep their pensions? If not, the NWA guys probably won’t be in a hurry to retire as projected…but at least all the DC-9’s will be repainted! With jobless claims increasing, methinks you'd have to be nuts to voluntarily leave a job.