Best guess on hiring, looking for advice
 

Please don't pummel me!! I am looking for some advice. I am a military instructor pilot getting out of active duty. I have a possibity of taking 100K bonus and being locked in for 4 more years. My dilemma is that I don't want to miss a hiring wave that may or may not happen in the next couple of years, if I am locked into a committment. Obviously, on the other side, I will have a steady paycheck for the next 4 years. My question is, do you guys, in the majors see me missing a big hiring wave if I took the bonus for 4 years? I won't be able to shorten the 4 years. Thanks in advance for all your inputs.

I would stay in the military ,,,,pretty bad out here

It is my opinion that there will be very little if any hiring at the majors for the next two years. After that, I think that many will start to slowly hire again.

I don't think that you are going to miss a "big wave" in the next four years. As long as you are able to get hired pretty quickly once your four years is up, I think that you will stay ahead of the majority of the hiring (leading to better career progression once you're at the airline).

But, its the airline industry so take my opinion FWIW.

I would stick with a sure thing if you can get it right now. With the condition of the industry and what looks like a slow economic recovery I don't think you will miss a "wave" Another way to look at this also is due to the 65 age change the next steady hiring may not take place for 4 years and your timing could end up being pretty good. Best of luck and thank you for your service.

We are already 1 year and four months past the age 65 rule passage. In other terms the first 65 year old will hit the street in three years and eight months.
And DAL has one guy that hits it three days after the magic date. He got a early Christmas present in 2007.

Not trying to be too nit-picky, but it will be another 3 years and 8 months.

December 2012 is the magic month, unless they change the retirement age to 70 or get rid of a mandatory retirement age altogether.

Bull, let me take this a different direction. Let me ask you three questions, First: Is your intent to leave at the first good opportunity (i.e. you don't want to do 20 on AD)? Second: Are you confident you can get a job in the reserves? Third: What are your expenses (Family, working spouse, etc.)? My point is that if you're getting out and can get a reserve job, sooner is usually better than later. There was an excellent post taken from Morningstar a few months ago that showed a very strong correlation between unemployment and capacity and yields in the airline industry (which lags unemployment, both up and down by roughly eight months). If you believe unemployment will peak late this year or early next year, it would lead you to believe there will be recalls within the next two years at most carriers and hiring at some. As a military guy, you will stand out more than you would have 20 years ago, making you an attractive candidate. However, there are a lot of furloughs out there. That still means a couple of years as a reserve bum, but you can make decent money in the reserves. However, this industry is a crap shoot and you may not stay employed, even if you get hired.

Long story short: Evaluate your need for steady income given your personal situation. Don't even think about getting out now to go fly for the airlines unless you're getting a flying gig in the reserves. Understand the tenuous nature of the industry. I made an unsuccessful, half hearted attempt to get out of orders in the early 90's when all of my contemporaries were getting hired at the majors. I wound up staying employed with a good paycheck until the mid-late 90s and most of them wound up furloughed. Very similar to your situation. Good luck.

correct. I was thinking four not five years, need more coffee.

:confused:SSSSSTAAAAAYYYYY WHEEEERRRREEEE YYYOOOUUUUU AAAARRRREEEEE!!!!:eek:

It's safer there.

As the other guys stated, the age 65 thing puts you about spot on in 4years to get on where ever. By that time, economy, retiring, and the possible downfall of the weak (should) have taken place.

But, then again I've been wrong....only once but it happened.

Just talk to any airline guy who is also in the reserves or guard...they are probably trying to go AD and bail on the airlines. I would stay where you are...things are not good right now. Keep in mind that you you dont have to wait the entire 4 years to start applying at airlines, you could probably start with as much as 2 years left to go and when hired be put in a pool for when you get out.
good luck