Republic may drop Midwest name
#15
Here's my non-flame-bait educated guess on how this will all play out.
5 years from now:
Midwest brand, service, name and original hub (MKE) gone. Midwest Legacy crews all gone, in part due to the awful deal they will get on the integration, and the fact that Republic as a whole will shrink.
Fleet reduction, most 50 seats gone, some 70 seaters gone. UA and DL don't renew due to the obvious competition that the new and improved Frontier will bring into their markets. Most buses will go away and replaced in some ratio with either 190's or BB's new toy the C-series.
Frontier is the new name for all integrated branded operations. However, due to continued pressure from other LCC's (SWA, Airtran, possibly even JetBlue), the business model shifts from a service driven product (Legacy Midwest, current Frontier), to a wholesale lesser quality product.
End result:
RAH will be about half the size it currently is, but still around. Most Frontier and Midwest Legacy crews gone due to decaying QOL, pay, and issues with SLI. Most of the buses gone with a 1-2 or even 1-3 ratio of replacement. Most market share shifting over to Airtran and Southwest. All and all, a bad thing for everyone involved and everyone in the industry.
Uptimistc (yet unrealistic) result:
SLI goes through without a scratch, everyone is happy, the company thrives without much resistance from competition, and the new and improved Frontier integrated pilot group negotiates an industry leading contract.
Time will tell, again, this is just a humble opinion, and educated guess.
goaround
5 years from now:
Midwest brand, service, name and original hub (MKE) gone. Midwest Legacy crews all gone, in part due to the awful deal they will get on the integration, and the fact that Republic as a whole will shrink.
Fleet reduction, most 50 seats gone, some 70 seaters gone. UA and DL don't renew due to the obvious competition that the new and improved Frontier will bring into their markets. Most buses will go away and replaced in some ratio with either 190's or BB's new toy the C-series.
Frontier is the new name for all integrated branded operations. However, due to continued pressure from other LCC's (SWA, Airtran, possibly even JetBlue), the business model shifts from a service driven product (Legacy Midwest, current Frontier), to a wholesale lesser quality product.
End result:
RAH will be about half the size it currently is, but still around. Most Frontier and Midwest Legacy crews gone due to decaying QOL, pay, and issues with SLI. Most of the buses gone with a 1-2 or even 1-3 ratio of replacement. Most market share shifting over to Airtran and Southwest. All and all, a bad thing for everyone involved and everyone in the industry.
Uptimistc (yet unrealistic) result:
SLI goes through without a scratch, everyone is happy, the company thrives without much resistance from competition, and the new and improved Frontier integrated pilot group negotiates an industry leading contract.
Time will tell, again, this is just a humble opinion, and educated guess.
goaround
#17
I think BB found the new name for his airline. After the serveys were turned in from the disgruntled Frontier passengers, he is going to call his new airline "Mid-Tier Airlines". You heard it here first boys............. (sorry fellas' I couldn't help but start the day off with a joke or two).
-Aloha
-Aloha
#18
Can't abide NAI
Joined APC: Jun 2007
Position: Douglas Aerospace post production Flight Test & Work Around Engineering bulletin dissembler
Posts: 11,989
Here's my non-flame-bait educated guess on how this will all play out.
5 years from now:
Midwest brand, service, name and original hub (MKE) gone. Midwest Legacy crews all gone, in part due to the awful deal they will get on the integration, and the fact that Republic as a whole will shrink. Could very well happen
Fleet reduction, most 50 seats gone, some 70 seaters gone. UA and DL don't renew due to the obvious competition that the new and improved Frontier will bring into their markets. Most buses will go away and replaced in some ratio with either 190's or BB's new toy the C-series. Or, Delta management lets DCI morph into codeshare, aka Alaska Airlines. As a member of the Board and holder of Midwest assets, it would have been impossible for Republic's buy to have taken place absent Delta's knowledge and acquiescence. So far there has been no indication they were bothered by this competition and they're happy to have MidWest pax code sharing on DL.
Frankly, it seems DAL seems to have decided it does not want to participate in segments of the market and is pleased to have someone (nearly anyone) else feed their network on an "at risk" basis. Their management of their own DCI system hasn't been efficient and currently it is designed to be an open system.
Frontier is the new name for all integrated branded operations. However, due to continued pressure from other LCC's (SWA, Airtran, possibly even JetBlue), the business model shifts from a service driven product (Legacy Midwest, current Frontier), to a wholesale lesser quality product. They'll need to keep "Frontier" (and I'm surprised they'd let "MidWest" go) since they need these operations to side step the scope constraints at some of the aforementioned carrier that outsource their flying. While it is a distinction with little difference, these C Series jets can not be operated at a DCI carrier without being so painfully obvious a scope violation that ALPA would be forced to object.
ALPA is happy to look the other way on the phrase "does not reduce Delta flying."
End result:
RAH will be about half the size it currently is, but still around. Most Frontier and Midwest Legacy crews gone due to decaying QOL, pay, and issues with SLI. Most of the buses gone with a 1-2 or even 1-3 ratio of replacement. Most market share shifting over to Airtran and Southwest. All and all, a bad thing for everyone involved and everyone in the industry. Good chance of being right about that. However, some of United, US Air and to a lesser extent Delta's capacity will probably be up for grabs.
Uptimistc (yet unrealistic) result:
SLI goes through without a scratch, everyone is happy, the company thrives without much resistance from competition, and the new and improved Frontier integrated pilot group negotiates an industry leading contract.
Time will tell, again, this is just a humble opinion, and educated guess.
goaround
5 years from now:
Midwest brand, service, name and original hub (MKE) gone. Midwest Legacy crews all gone, in part due to the awful deal they will get on the integration, and the fact that Republic as a whole will shrink. Could very well happen
Fleet reduction, most 50 seats gone, some 70 seaters gone. UA and DL don't renew due to the obvious competition that the new and improved Frontier will bring into their markets. Most buses will go away and replaced in some ratio with either 190's or BB's new toy the C-series. Or, Delta management lets DCI morph into codeshare, aka Alaska Airlines. As a member of the Board and holder of Midwest assets, it would have been impossible for Republic's buy to have taken place absent Delta's knowledge and acquiescence. So far there has been no indication they were bothered by this competition and they're happy to have MidWest pax code sharing on DL.
Frankly, it seems DAL seems to have decided it does not want to participate in segments of the market and is pleased to have someone (nearly anyone) else feed their network on an "at risk" basis. Their management of their own DCI system hasn't been efficient and currently it is designed to be an open system.
Frontier is the new name for all integrated branded operations. However, due to continued pressure from other LCC's (SWA, Airtran, possibly even JetBlue), the business model shifts from a service driven product (Legacy Midwest, current Frontier), to a wholesale lesser quality product. They'll need to keep "Frontier" (and I'm surprised they'd let "MidWest" go) since they need these operations to side step the scope constraints at some of the aforementioned carrier that outsource their flying. While it is a distinction with little difference, these C Series jets can not be operated at a DCI carrier without being so painfully obvious a scope violation that ALPA would be forced to object.
ALPA is happy to look the other way on the phrase "does not reduce Delta flying."
End result:
RAH will be about half the size it currently is, but still around. Most Frontier and Midwest Legacy crews gone due to decaying QOL, pay, and issues with SLI. Most of the buses gone with a 1-2 or even 1-3 ratio of replacement. Most market share shifting over to Airtran and Southwest. All and all, a bad thing for everyone involved and everyone in the industry. Good chance of being right about that. However, some of United, US Air and to a lesser extent Delta's capacity will probably be up for grabs.
Uptimistc (yet unrealistic) result:
SLI goes through without a scratch, everyone is happy, the company thrives without much resistance from competition, and the new and improved Frontier integrated pilot group negotiates an industry leading contract.
Time will tell, again, this is just a humble opinion, and educated guess.
goaround
As a RAH shareholder, I'd be pretty fearful of a double dip recession taking this operation out lock, stock and barrel. Of course if that happens to the degree predicted a lot of us are going to be in the same boat.
#19
The question is will DAL be stupid enough to let the "one-way" code share live on and adjust the agreement to the "new" MEH name? If so we have to approve it at D-ALPA.
Lets hope we are not that gullible.
Lets hope we are not that gullible.
#20
Can't abide NAI
Joined APC: Jun 2007
Position: Douglas Aerospace post production Flight Test & Work Around Engineering bulletin dissembler
Posts: 11,989
Why is it "stupid" ?
If Delta thinks it can't operate it's own feed effectively, then why not facilitate an offline passenger's flow into a 767?
We need to develop a business model that allows us to perform our own flying profitably. Until then, this makes sense. That must be why we (both ALPA and Management) keep facilitating outsourcing.
Hence the reason anyone who desires improvement in job security provisions must resist the "outsourcing is good" logic as the never ending tactical retreat that it is.
If Delta thinks it can't operate it's own feed effectively, then why not facilitate an offline passenger's flow into a 767?
We need to develop a business model that allows us to perform our own flying profitably. Until then, this makes sense. That must be why we (both ALPA and Management) keep facilitating outsourcing.
Hence the reason anyone who desires improvement in job security provisions must resist the "outsourcing is good" logic as the never ending tactical retreat that it is.
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