Rock752000

Along with ironclad scope industry-wide, I'd like to motion for reinstatement of the "glory days" I heard about in my teen years. While we're at it, let's reinstate the stringent screening protocols with monthly FA weigh-ins and such.

I'm wishing in one hand, doubt it'll fill up...

eaglefly

Yes, let's not forget about the inverse relationship of looser mainline scope and advancement to major carriers by hopeful regional pilots. As mainline scope continues its evaporation, it means a higher percentage of regional pilots will fly their last flight at 65 (or earlier) in the left seat of an RJ having never reached the major they had so hoped to see.

Traditionally, only about half of all regional pilots have made it to a major carrier, not due to lack of interest or effort, but simply a finite number of new-hire berths. Mainline retirements will increase, but likely won't result in an equal number of backfill new-hire slots like the past exactly due to weaker scope and thus perhaps 3 of 10 major airline hopefuls currently flying for regional carriers especially, if over 40 now and/or non-military will ever make the leap.

Many at the regional level will wish in one hand for that to be different also, doubt it'll fill up though.

I'd advise fully half the current regional pilot corps to plan their current regional to be their career, unless that regional is one that dissolves itself to lower-bidding (and paying) competition. Considering the cutthroat future of the regional industry to come, that's going to be a disappointing environment for many.

gettinbumped

Careful now. I did NOT say we would get industry LEADING pay. You said that Scope improvements would require pay CUTS in your initial post. I said that we would not sign an agreement without Scope improvements AND pay RAISES, not necessarily industry leading (assuming you are including SWA, FEDEX and UPS).

Pay is about #3 or #4 in importance to me with the next contract. I'd say that ranking is consistent with the majority of UniCal pilots based on what I see and hear from my fellow aviators.

One more small point.... I also didn't say that we would get all FLYING above 50 seats back. I said we would get all RJ's over 50 seats back. I would not be surprised to see the Q400 survive the Scope debate at the regionals. Not happy about it, but not surprised.

m78fl370

Are you saying someone in their 20s flying for a regional now, will more than likely spend 40 years flying at a regional airline, during a time period in which tens of thousands of pilots will be retiring from the legacies? It only took you 20 years and you weren't even trying.

eaglefly

The past is littered with major airline hiring cycles whereby the major carriers (which were MORE numerous then) were hiring at or close to 100 pilots a MONTH. Yet even then, many, many pilots weren't hired and thus either remained at regionals or left the airline industry to either fly outside that or left flying all together. It's nieve to think that with the advent of the larger 70-100 seat RJ's as the next wave and it seems most, if not all being flown by regionals, that the remaining 4 (perhaps soon 3) major carriers and SWA will have as many slots then the past as they contract with attrition. Sure, some pilots will make the jump, but I'll bet it'll be less then the past percentage-wise and thus stand by my assertion that the majority of RJ pilots regardless of age will stay at their regional.

Remember that this business is cyclical in hiring and many who've been waiting a decade or more for their "shot" may be pushed to the back of the line as too old (over 40) and the newer, younger and medically cheaper pilots leapfrog past them for the limited slots available. The 2 decent freight operators traditionally don't expand (or contract) like the PAX carriers and hire modestly when they do hire (usually requiring MULTIPLE recommendations just to get consideration). Timing is everything and that is EXACTLY why I spent 23 years at a regional and made my transition only through a mutully agreed contractual provision involving risk and reward. The 37 year old RJ captain of 2011 who has been at a regional for 10+ years may indeed be in the back of the pack as the 43 year old hopeful of 2017 when major airline retirments really start to kick in, especially if those jobs are being replaced by 100 seat RJ's at the regionals who pay those senior captains $75K/year (in 2017 dollars).

The dream of picking your major and multiple offers will remain that for virtually everyone and those that make it will take the first offer they do get. Many of the slots will go toward corproate/fractional pilots and the military slated to have an increasing group of applicants due to cutbacks and lost flying assignements. I still say roughly 7 out of 10 current RJ pilots will never see a major carrier, unless ALL the majors really re-take scope, return those jobs to major carriers and recapture a large portion of the flying lost to regionals RJ's. That's the unpleasant flipside of weak mainline scope and it's ironic that so many young and hungry regional pilots trumpeted transfer of flying to their regionals so THEY could get that upgrade and the theoretically coveted 1000 hours 121 jet PIC, only to have nowhere to go with it.

The ultimate catch-22 for the hungry young pilots, but since pilots are their own worst enemies, competely predictable.

m78fl370

I'm all for scope being recaptured by the legacy pilots for this very reason. However, you seem to be predicting that scope will be pretty much dead, and the 20 thousand plus pilots that will be retiring in the next few decades will not be replaced. The entire US domestic airline system will basically be replaced by contract carriers? You're predicting that we'll see AA become simply an international/transcon airline with perhaps 2-3 thousand pilots, and AE, or the AX carriers I should say, will be a 12000 pilot operation. Maybe, but I just don't see that happening. I have confidence in you guys.

hoover

[QUOTE=chuck416;1050969]Thats funny I used to do CYVR to KOAK thats international right?

hoover

I understand the importance of scope, but would you really want to go back to flying an RJ or even a turboprop and their schedules. I don't think my body could handle that much flying any more.

eaglefly

As far as the AA/AE scenario, it's possible ONLY if AMR goes to BK and if they do, it's probable. Their interests in widespread domestic and international code-sharing and increasing their large RJ count are a known fact. If you really look around most hubs nowadays like ATL, DFW or LGA, you'll note perhaps HALF the ops their are ALREADY RJ's. Should AMR get their way, it will be difficult for UAL and DAL to compete unless they too follow suit. 5-7 years off before the start of the significant retirement waves is a long time (longer then most recent hiring cycles).

It's not a certainty, but a distinct possibility.

Aside from that, as I said, most of the majors had a past history of hiring almost a hundred pilots/month........until the next down cycle, frequently followed by furloughs. If perhaps half of regional pilots made that cut THEN, less then that would likely make the cut the next cycle. BTW, if you've noticed the hiring cycles have gotten smaller and farther apart in the last 10 years, EXCEPT at the regional level and if the market really just replaces the current smaller RJ's with more 90-100 seaters, THAT is the growth.

Again, with the exception of AA's recent spurt of retirements, most carriers are still 5-7 years off before any significant BEGINNING of a retirement wave and 5-7 more years will put many of the more senior at the regional level too old to be among the first to be hired and would either be passed up entirely or end up the oldest and most junior, first giving way to the 32 year old junior captains, now 25 year old new-hire regional F/O's. Health care is a big issue there (before about the mid 1980's, most major carriers didn't hire above about the age of 35).

It's all about timing.............something I understand quite well. Don't know how old you are, but if you're over 35, chances are you're already at high risk for being pushed back in the stack due to age when the real push for slots opens up (SHOULD they open up) at the majors.

Zapata

I fly pretty much all international, crossings etc., and although I know that it isn't rocket science, it takes more than an "hour". Of course "flying is still flying". But flying is one of the easiest parts of being a professional pilot. One of the tougher parts is the decision making and one's decision making prowess is certainly much more challenged and tested in, as exampled by buzzpat, Kinshasa, than it is in say, Topeka.

This is well said....except for your misspelling of candidate!