Bucking Bar

Can you just remind us of this, every month for the next year?

captjns

majority from other lands. Upon obtaining their CPLs, they will proceed to a TRTO approved by their country's DGCA obtain a Boeing or Airbus rating. Then they will proceed for employment selection at the airline in their country.

With the exception of FED EX and Southwest, all US carriers appear to be slipping to the bottom feeding category. Why work for wages less than what a burger flipper makes at Burger King?

johnso29

You strengthen my point. There are little to no US citizens entering the field of airline careers. The majority of applicants for commercial certificates in this country are not even US citizens and will not work in the USA.

Sliceback

The majority? Where'd you get that stat from?

Westen

It seems like this thread is a couple of years early. We still have 1 more year till the first retirements at age 65 kick in. On top of that the 2013 - 2017 annual retirements per company are in the 100 - 300 range. The big numbers do not kick in until around 2018 and beyond. So how early are these airline supposed to start hiring for that?

MoonShot

I agree. Couple it with airlines cutting capacity (and generally pilot block hours) and I would say, not very early. My guess is real hiring at the majors (continuous class dates, not just some here and there) won't happen until around 2015-2016.

Its the airline industry though, so who the heck knows what will happen next year, let alone 4-5 down the road?

forgot to bid

I'm curious. How many approaching 60 in 2007 had already retired. Such that come 2012 there aren't that many retiring to make a difference?

To me three things will probably happen in this next decade:

1) Majors will continue to shrink and merge and shrink, so as pilots retire not as many need to be replaced,

2) 50 seaters will be cut because their revenue from frequency and access does not trump their cost- meaning a gluttony in regional pilots and no need to hire in mass during the transition to larger RJs,

3) 51+ seat flying will continue to be outsourced meaning fewer major jobs and fewer regional jobs but once you get one you're not on a small jet but a large one.

Hence, no shortage.

Zymurgist

The driver behind regionals hiring is the reassignment of contracts. As one loses and furloughs another is awarded a contract and hires. It's the recycling of RJ pilots.

2ndGenPSA

Great post FloridaGator. The majors have no shortage of pilots. Neither do the regionals. The majors still have consolidation, shrinkage, and outsourcing at their disposal. The regionals have larger aircraft and reassignment of contracts at their disposal.

I keep getting told by the majors that this is the best opportunity in recent history for piots. I've heard that before. The builder of my condo told me in 2005 that I had made a fortune by simply buying the place. I'm still stuck with it, and it's worth a lot less than a fortune.

These guys (major CEO's) aren't dumb or reactive. They are planning for the retirements. It will be their way of shrinking without ****ing anyone off. They won't have to furlough. They just let the pilot ranks shrink on their own and continue to outsource larger flying to the regionals.

An I a pessimist or a realist? I hope neither. But I will print this and save it for a laugh in 10 years. Or a cry?

block30

How much furloughing is going on now? I thought hiring was far out pacing furloughs. Some from Trans States, I'm not sure how you would account for the Mesas and Comairs of the world. Again, not meant to be a wise --- post.