Majors not hiring prior to a known shortage..
 

Mark My Words:
I've got a theory about all this non-hiring just before the shortage. There WILL be a massive shortage due to all the factors we are familiar with. The major airlines will have purposely held off hiring in anticipation of this. Then there WILL be a major disruption to the "flow of commerce" and then they will go to congress "Needing relief" from regulatory hurdles. Then hold on to your hat that they want us to wear to look professional. Everything will be on the table. They will be asking for congressional relief from scope clauses, the FO ATP rule, any new rest requirements that might or might not be in place at that point, and (here is the big one) CABOTAGE! That's right. They will be going after the entire U.S. Airline industry in favor of using other country's airlines to do the flying. They will claim that there was no way they could have predicted these pilot shortages and could not possibly absorb the costs of all this training with out going bankrupt. All along, they will have purposly painted themselves into a corner while maintaining that they were all just too short sighted, stupid and dumb to realise this was coming.
Dumb? ...Dumb like a Fox!

Thoughts?

Only one problem with that...

Other countries airlines are already desperate for qualified pilots, to the point that they have to offer somewhat better than US domestic airlines to attract western talent. No sign of that changing anytime soon.

I just don't think the airlines are thinking that far ahead...they never have before (in recent memory) so why start now?

+1. "One World"

British Airways has started their add campaign to hire pilots via ab-initio or new-hire. I saw one of their adds in back of an Airliner magazine. It basically says that they will need 800 pilots very soon and that there will be big retirements at BA (age 55, full retirement and medical). Ryan Air, Emirates etc, are starting this pipeline to get warm blood in their seats before the crunch.

If we are not proactive/defensive, the US Airlines will have much similar fate as compared to the US cruise/shipping industry.

TEN

Just flew with a guy who gets emails from an airline in China every week. 15K a month and a two year contract to fly a E145/E190. Not for me, as I don't want to uproot my family but for a single guy with student loan debt its kind of attractive.

I heard you have to PAY British Airways for the training. And if you wash out, NO MONEY BACK!!!!

I don't see any problems for the Majors filling up their classes. There are plenty of very qualified pilots at the regionals / military who can fill up the classes. The shortage will be at the regional level and they are the ones who will be begging congress to relax the 1500 hour rule so they can get 200 hour wonders back in the right seat.

*IF* any shortage does materialize, it won't be the major airlines that will have problems recruiting pilots. So I don't think it will be them trying to get relief on anything. It will probably be Cohen and his merry men.

The problem, if it is a problem, is easily fixable anyway. All they have to do is raise pay and benefits to the point where the profession becomes financially attractive again. They should do that a couple of years before their anticipated shortage to give time for their future pilot candidates to train and gain minimum experience requirements, which we all know will be likely well under 1500 hours after they are done with all the loopholes. They wouldn't even have to raise pay that much, either. I bet all they would have to do is get rid of the food stamp wages they pay their first officers. Raise first officer pay to 40K - $50k per year and that would solve their shortage after a couple of years.

Unfortunately, regional airline management can't see 6 inches past their nose, so they will try everything EXCEPT raising salaries, and of course that will likely not work. They will also wait until the very last minute and of course there won't be anyone in the pipeline to take the jobs they are forced to raise salaries for.

But, of course, throw in a terrorist attack, high oil prices, another recession, etc., and the whole pilot shortage thing becomes moot anyway- at least for a few years.

Kinda like this article states:

Airlines cut small jets as fuel prices soar: Associated Press Business News - MSN Money

Read this

Crew shortfall threatens growth of Gulf airlines - Transport - ArabianBusiness.com