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Delta and TPG look To put bid on AMR Corp

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Delta and TPG look To put bid on AMR Corp

Old 01-12-2012, 12:58 PM
  #41  
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Originally Posted by FIIGMO View Post
Eagle you sound scared, backed into a corner so to speak. Need a hug?


J/K
No, I need a kleenex because my eyes are watering so much from all the laughing. But don't worry. If you're not successful in stealing my job, I'm sure someone else's will come along soon enough.
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Old 01-12-2012, 01:00 PM
  #42  
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Originally Posted by eaglefly View Post
This is absolutely hilarious !

Some of you yahoo's already got AA sliced and diced and are already calculating your next bids and advancement schedules.

God, I love airline pilots. Complete idiots, but a blast to watch and listen too.
As I said on your thread a few months back. Talking about corporate maneuvering is not the same as wishing ill will on pilots. Separate them, I do.
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Old 01-12-2012, 01:02 PM
  #43  
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Originally Posted by Jughead View Post
This breaking news is a great diversion from the underboob scandal that has plagued this thread for the last 3 days, but you say this with such confidence, as if this is a done deal. We read the article for the first time within the last 4 hours - how do you know it must produce growth for our pilots on the list. Period. ?

I've heard about good deals for us time and time again, but at the end of the day, I'm not any better off (financially) than I was 10 years ago. I'm not any better off (seniority wise) than I was 5 years ago. In fact, I'm worse off.

Many reps feel this way? I hope you're correct. I really hope that all of them feel this way.
The growth period part was mine. If the company wants support it needs to be bought and dollars on the front end is not enough. That goes for any support for any transaction not just AMR.
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Old 01-12-2012, 01:04 PM
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Originally Posted by RockyBoy View Post
And I've already figured out that I would be senior to you! Ratio via category and class would put a 2007 Delta hire right up there with the early 90 hires at AA!!

FWIW, I really think this would be a horrible deal for every pilot involved. I'm almost sure I would be on the street and the massive retirements we are looking at at both airlines would just offset the reduction in flying resulting in more stagnation for everyone. I'm hoping AA pulls out of this as a stand alone carrier and we all move on, not looking that way at this point however.
Agreed. We would all be better off if we fought SWA in the late 90's instead of having CEO's leverage their corporations. It did not happen, and after a long stretch of worse and worse, we are here with more of the same nasty sandwich. Employees will lose on all sides. Some more than others, but this is never good for the working sloth.
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Old 01-12-2012, 01:10 PM
  #45  
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Originally Posted by acl65pilot View Post
Agreed. We would all be better off if we fought SWA in the late 90's instead of having CEO's leverage their corporations. It did not happen, and after a long stretch of worse and worse, we are here with more of the same nasty sandwich. Employees will lose on all sides. Some more than others, but this is never good for the working sloth.
I worry about a modified repeat of the LCC revolution of 2001-2010, especially with all this "capacity dicipline" and an AA tie up. If we really start to cull capacity, while the MBA spreadsheet guys are autoerotically actuarializing their paper gains on yields, the LCC's of the world will cut in line again and add between 8 and 15 seats for every 10 we cut...especially if it appears to be "working" with sky high yields. We will see another wave of AT/SW/JB/F9/NK and now VX expansion that will shred anything we hope to make by employing such a myopic quarter to quarter long term stratedgy. I hope our guys are smarter than that but we have serious reason to doubt most of them are.
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Old 01-12-2012, 01:12 PM
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Originally Posted by gloopy View Post
Not sure where you got that. You'd have to be living under a rock not to see that AMR is in play, from multipile angles and numerous scenarios. Most of the DL speculation centers around how many of our own will have to eat a furlough over this, regardless of what happens to AA or AE. Also, if you've read any of the posts, you'd see plenty of talk about the potential slicing and dicing of the DL network is a top concern.
I'd not get too worked up just yet. AMR didn't go into this without knowing other buzzards would circle and in fact, the new CEO admitted it from the very beginning. That's why they did it with 5 billion in the bank.

Originally Posted by gloopy View Post
One thing is for certain: if there is an AA fragmentation it won't be because of Delta. It will be happening anyway and DL may or may not play a part in it. Odds are that other airlines will as well, regardless of how much AA survives in tact and/or fully merges.
AA is in no more danger of fragmentation then the other carriers were previously in the decade during their filings (I'll bet at least half those on this board.....you know, the merger/fragmentation experts posting now weren't even in the industry then). In fact, with AMR's cash, they're LESS likely to succomb to fragmentation unless they WANT to. A possibility, but not a probability. Doesn't do much for all those running around ridiculously now like decapitated fowl, squawking, "done deal, done deal" out of their headless stumps.

Originally Posted by gloopy View Post
Also, AE will be shrunk dramatically unless AA survives as a stand alone with very little asset sales...AND...if the AA pilots gut their own scope. But if they are willing to do that to the extent necessary to preserve AE (replacing 50 seaters with 100/100+seaters) they would be just as willing to bargain away other portions of their scope to facilitate a more favorable fragmentation even if that ends up happening.
There wont be much bargaining in Chapter 11. AMR will get what it wants on scope, but I agree mergers and fragmentations usually always involve workforce reductions.

Originally Posted by gloopy View Post
Other than maybe a very few, very senior, pilots living in ORD, MIA and DFW, no one at Delta is salivating over this because for every scenario that would cause positive movement for the DL list, there is one that causes significant stagnation and several that will cause massive career changing furloughs.

Other than running up the price for a competitor in a bidding war or getting a very few assets here or there in a full (unlikely) or partial (more likely) or very partial (most likely) fragmentation, a full on merger with AA will be absolutely horriffic for DL pilots.
The above is all the more reason not to get too worked up over it. When a company like AA goes into restructuring it's normal for others to persue all or parts of it. Doesn't mean they'll be successful. If AA was on the ropes with feeble cash and assets when they filed, they'd have DIP financing and would be FAR more vulnerable to merge/frag as others loaning the money to complete chapter 11 call the shots, but AMR is firmly in the driver's seat. Still, it's too attractive to sit on the sidelines and not participate, if even only to drive up the bidding to maximize competitive stregth by making a potential winning bidder weaker upon acquisition.

I'd advice you to join me watching the colliding, truncated fowl and blossoming feather plume of those who haven't a clue beyond their own dreams, desires and fantasies.

It's actually a classic comedy and worthy of observence......well, I'm out of beer nuts and my beverage is low, so back to the kitchen to refill for the next entertaining act of "The flying Saps".
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Old 01-12-2012, 01:12 PM
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Originally Posted by eaglefly View Post
This is absolutely hilarious !

Some of you yahoo's already got AA sliced and diced and are already calculating your next bids and advancement schedules.

God, I love airline pilots. Complete idiots, but a blast to watch and listen too.
One thing you must understand as our Strategic Planners do, we saw this coming over a year ago. Does AMR fragment? Depends, but with DAL, TPG, Black Canyon, LCC, and eventually UCAL and LUV(wanting in Oneworld in AMR's spot) all planning for AMR's assets etc, it makes it very difficult for them to restructure in CH11. The creditors see better risk with one less carrier and a better value on the existing debt though fragmentation.

APA has been looking at this, as well as many ALPA carriers. What is important is to understand the implications of any action, and as a result of about a handful of possibilities the results of ever one of those. It is not gloating or wishing ill will on the APA pilots, it is planning for the facts and scenarios that every pilot group including APA faces.

DAL was put in this position in late 2006. Parker and Anderson know that Parker waited to long. With AMR going to court to list what leases they want to ax, now is the time to pounce. It is also the time for the pilot groups to fine tune their plans and responses. Again, it is the business side of the deal. Reality is that a guy like me may see the street from this sort of deal. It will not be end to end, the bases are too close to each other. That is the reality of where the M and A scenarios are at this time. Ugly? yes, Fun? No.
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Old 01-12-2012, 01:15 PM
  #48  
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Originally Posted by eaglefly View Post

There wont be much bargaining in Chapter 11. AMR will get what it wants on scope, but I agree mergers and fragmentations usually always involve workforce reductions.
Actually scope is the only area of Ch11 where scope is off the table...unless the APA falls for the myth of "bargaining credits" and wants to trade their jobs for a cookie they will never get.

1113c can't touch scope. It can only shred the other areas of a CBA. The pilots have to willingly give up scope in a flailing attempt to salvage value in toe other sections of their CBA that the courts can cut. There will be no forced growth to the regionals, only that which is freely given up.
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Old 01-12-2012, 01:18 PM
  #49  
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Originally Posted by gloopy View Post
I worry about a modified repeat of the LCC revolution of 2001-2010, especially with all this "capacity dicipline" and an AA tie up. If we really start to cull capacity, while the MBA spreadsheet guys are autoerotically actuarializing their paper gains on yields, the LCC's of the world will cut in line again and add between 8 and 15 seats for every 10 we cut...especially if it appears to be "working" with sky high yields. We will see another wave of AT/SW/JB/F9/NK and now VX expansion that will shred anything we hope to make by employing such a myopic quarter to quarter long term strategy. I hope our guys are smarter than that but we have serious reason to doubt most of them are.
The difference now from them is the route networks are totally different. DAL is at a point where further domestic cuts hurt the domestic route system, and as a result up-gauging and frequency pulldown will rule the day. It is also why in a few instances, better geographic hubs are need. UCAL has an issue with CLE. We have issue with four Midwestern Hubs, Two Western Hubs that are too close to each other; SLC and SEA(though not a base) and not having a hub in the South Central part of the US. MIA is also a key growth spot for DAL. This is the next phase of energizing the domestic route network to kill the ULCC's. (Ultra Low Cost Carriers)

If we fail to do it, yes, you could be correct and NKS could in fact take delivery of all 75 320's they ordered. Bad for us, and that is why on many levels AMR and these possibilities are important in the domestic realm. Do not even get me started on the wider game of imploding or greatly hurting one world.
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Old 01-12-2012, 01:18 PM
  #50  
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Originally Posted by gloopy View Post
I worry about a modified repeat of the LCC revolution of 2001-2010, especially with all this "capacity dicipline" and an AA tie up. If we really start to cull capacity, while the MBA spreadsheet guys are autoerotically actuarializing their paper gains on yields, the LCC's of the world will cut in line again and add between 8 and 15 seats for every 10 we cut...especially if it appears to be "working" with sky high yields. We will see another wave of AT/SW/JB/F9/NK and now VX expansion that will shred anything we hope to make by employing such a myopic quarter to quarter long term stratedgy. I hope our guys are smarter than that but we have serious reason to doubt most of them are.
Reading this makes my head hurt. Obviously writing books for law school students didn't work out for you.

Simple minds are satisfied by simplistic explanations.
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