How large is the Pilot Pool?
 

By that I mean how many of the applicants at major airlines are qualified? I have heard stories like XYZ airline has 5,000 applicant on file and ABC has 4,000 on file. If these airlines are looking for the 1,000 hours of TJ PIC do all those applicants meet those times or can a 250 hour Comm Inst pilot send an app in just hoping to get lucky.

The other question is how many of these applicants overlap? One would assume he or she is applying to ALL of the majors at the same time.

I think management likes to report that they have say 5,000 applicants just as an intimidation factor.

So how many people are out there that have competitive qualifications to get hired by a major US airline at this time? And of those applicants are they all serious or is there a portion just testing the waters? As an example a corporate jet captain making $90K a year is not really going to start at the bottom again but may have an application on file just to see if he gets an interview.

According to the APC numbers, the number of active pilots in the various industry segments is, roughly, as follows:

Legacy(+FedEx/UPS/Southwest): 52000
Other passenger carriers (larger a/c than regionals): 7000
Regional: 22000
121 Charter/Cargo (except FedEx/UPS): 5000
Fractional: 4000

Thats 90,000 total pilots. Doesn't include pilots employed flying non-fractional, non-121 type stuff.

---- Disclaimer: Everything after this line is wild assumptions on my part, just playing with the numbers ----

Now, time to make some big assumptions. Lets say that the percentage of pilots in each market segment with applications to a legacy are as follows:

Other legacies: 10%
Other large pax carriers: 50%
Regionals: 75%
121 Cargo/Charter: 75%
Fractionals: 25%

Thats over 27000 pilots actively pursuing a job at a legacy carrier. Lets say that each airline only gets an application from 1 out of every 4 of the pilots pursuing a legacy. Thats about 7000 applications.

Now lets say that only 50% of the regional pilots applying are qualified. That takes 8000 pilots actively pursuing a legacy out of the loop. Lets assume 90% of the other pilots are qualified... not too many low timers or those without ATPs/Types in the other market segments. That takes another 1000 out of the loop. That leaves us with 18000 qualified pilots pursuing a legacy.

The 1 out of every 4 part puts it at about 4500 qualified applicants at each airline.

Bravo!

Good number crunching

My question is why did you not assume all of those qualified applied to all the legacy carriers?

The numbers do point out that the pool is big enough, but if not "refilled" over the next decade, the huge retirement bulge could create a crunch late in the decade.

GF

I believe the vast majority of applicants do meet the minimums when they apply. FedEx and SWA does not allow you to proceed with the process unless you meet their mins. And your are correct that most applicants apply to multiple carriers as they do not have the luxury of choosing a particular carrier they would like to work for.

Management does not need to inflate the numbers of applicants as they know they have the upper hand now and for foreseeable future. Like most things in life it's all about timing. Supply and demand is just not in our favor today.

I know, for myself and many others, that not everyone wants to go to every legacy. Many choose to not apply to FedEx/UPS, US Airways, Southwest, or anyone else because of what they're personally looking for. In addition to that, many may have applied at some point but aren't really actively staying updated with them.

So, I counted 7 airlines in the "legacy" group. UA, DL, AA, US, WN, FX, and UP. Some people are die-hard towards only one carrier. Some apply everywhere. So I went with each pilot desiring to work for a legacy is interested in actively pursuing 2 of those airlines, I went with the 1 out of 4 ratio. I could be way off though.


I agree that the pool is pretty big. A lot bigger than I had thought before I started adding up the numbers. One has to wonder though if a lot of the "pain" will be solved by parking RJs as it becomes more difficult for them to find pilots. Say the legacies hire 10,000 pilots and the regionals are only able to find 5,000 replacements. That works out to be about 23% of the regional workforce. So, in the time it takes the legacies to hire 10,000 pilots, if they manage to park a quarter of the RJs out there, everything will work out fine (for them).

I'd say most meet the minimums, but probably only half of those coming from regionals are competitive and stand any chance. ie: The have 1000+ TPIC and a college degree crowd.

Another interesting number that should be added to the list are expatriot pilots, airline AND corporate. I know of many scattered around the world that would like to come back. Many won't because the money abroad is too good, but many miss America and would like to come home.

In my opinion, with this competitive job market, why apply somewhere if you do not meet the mins? I did not apply to FedEx until I had my FE Written done, that is back when they required it to apply. If SWA required at 737 type to apply, I would not apply until I had the type. If I did not have a 4 yr degree I would not apply to DAL. Why waste your time and effort? It is not like every airline is hiring right now nor are we, as pilots, in the drivers seat and have a chance of getting hired at a major without the basic mins.

Military peeps
 

I didn't see a factor of military guys in that calculation. I'm sure there are a number of those that are just hanging out at a reserve/guard gig waiting for hiring to start again.

Conservatively, probably another 3-5K pilots that will have their applications given an open hiring window.