Bill Lumberg

Maybe fewer Brady Bunch episodes should be in your future and instead you should be writing down questions you should ask at a road show? Your anger over this TA is clouding your judgement. Get as much information you can about this TA before you dismiss it.

Elvis90

FIIGMO, could you please share with the group the misconceptions you had that were cleared up? Being completely honest here.

Also, what were your threshold points in the survey? Did you change, and if so, why?

Elvis90

Bill, I have not attended a road show yet...I'll try, but I am a commuter.

I had asked you in a previous thread regarding your survey input. What did you put in the survey, and have you changed your mind? If so, why?

acl65pilot

Maybe, maybe not. The reps were briefed extensively by the negotiators and if this was the case, and they made a completely compelling argument, then the vote should have been unanimous in favor of the TA. As it stands five reps question the data, and some have written as to why. That point leaves a lot to question.

Yes, there is risk with saying no. There is also risk with saying yes. There are work rule concessions in this agreement, the effect of those is not fully known. There are scope changes, with language that has not been tested in the real world.

One needs to look at what just happened. It is unheard of. Two months of talks and a comprehensive TA. The decision makers for the company were present almost nonstop. That means other things were put on hold to get to this deal. That right there should tell you how bad DAL wants this deal done.

The RJ DCI changes allow DAL to do many things, namely get out of money losing contracts and reduce their overall debt level. My research seems to point to a level that would allow significantly increased borrowing numbers after this deal is done. With the time to a TA, the effort involved to get here and an apparent timeline that is in line with AMR's loss of exclusivity(Sept 29th), many things pointed to a TA being voted on and ratified by Late Aug. We are looking at this deal possibly being done by June 30th, two months ahead of the assumed deadline.

Now none of this is fore certain, but recall what you heard and what you have seen from everyone involved prior to the TA. I would be surprised to the the "go" time altering slightly. If this TA passes it just gives DAL more time before they start acting.

DAL brought in Mr Chase to gain significant access to the Capital markets six months ago. DAL has bought a refinery, we invested in AeroMexico, GOL, and many one off purchases are probably in the works. That all adds up to a half a billion dollars. DAL just committed 2 bln to modernization of international airport checkin counters, Sky Clubs, and gate houses. 2bln! They just committed to ordering 188 replacement/growth airplanes as well. DAL has the cash flow. Keep that in mind. What they need access to is 2-5 bln to make a major asset purchase. This TA sets them up for a very interesting Fall and Winter. The business plan needs a debt level to go the preferred route.

It is a big question on if they would rework the deal that would add 140-200 million by Jan 1 or not. I look at what I see possibly coming down the road, and the revenue growth potential from it, and I ask myself; If I were CEO, would I risk the preferred route for the cost of one 777? Its a question I ask daily, and will until the vote closes. I know what I would do, but I am not the CEO.

I too grew up in a family that had a father that was a big time exec over 40K employees. Labor contracts et al were just part of dinner table discussion. Strategy and the cost benefit of fighting the deals were also discussed. There is a line that makes the risk worth more than the reward with any one of these situations. We all agree with that. There are also intangibles in this industry that cannot be measured. a few hundred million is minimal in the overall scheme of things with you have a 36 bln dollar company that could possibly be a 40+ billion dollar company with the correct acquisitions.

All I ask, from a "yes," "no" or a maybe voter is to think strategically and for yourself. Read and listen to what is put out there from the union and others. Dismiss what you see as non-meaningful, then take a step back, look at what RA has said and all of the LCA meetings, investor calls et al, look at what the analysis are saying, and what is going on in the industry before making a decision.


*Of note the Bankruptcy judge will hear AMR's case on throwing out the APA's contract before the close of voting. If it is in fact thrown out, the timeline changes significantly and DAL will move immediately as it will become a free for all. If the judge refuses to throw out the contract prior to the close of TA voting, the timeline remains unchanged for DAL, UCAL et al. Watch these events and change your vote if needed.

nwa757

"How can you measure immediate financial improvements to a struggling family?"

Are the hundreds of RJ families (or pilots that can't afford to start a family yet) built into these measurements? Both furloughs at 50 seat carriers, and more low paying jobs flying 76 seaters.

Elvis90

Good comments ACL, all from a strategic perspective.

sevenfiveseven

Is it only a sales job from DALPA if it disagrees with your agenda/thoughts? Look at recent history, the industry as a whole, and any possible future plans you can conjure. Then think what you would do if you were CEO - how would you negotiate, what would you give up/take back. We never operate in a bubble.

acl65pilot

Hey, good or bad, its the way I think. Always looking for the anomaly in the data. I see a few that may be used as leverage points. Time will tell. The chess board is constantly changing and so are the targets.

acl65pilot

Very true and it comes down to risk/reward for the company too. They may need the delta pilots help once again in the near future. The players are shrinking and the need for labor support will be paramount.

Bill Lumberg

I put in 15% min first year, and then 4/4/4. That would be for a 4 year contract obviously. I was close the first year, since the Md88 guys get an extra pay bump to MD90 wages for all flights, plus the 4 and 8.5 by Jan 1st. The next two aren't great, but again it is a 3 year contract, which isn't bad at all. I then looked at the whole TA, and saw improvements in most areas. The larger RJ additions aren't great, but maybe those 50 seaters are draining the bank, and those 102 70 seaters maybe could replace a lot of them, and make those routes more profitable. Adding 717s and making them connected to any additional 76 seaters helped too. And seeing what is happening in the rest of our industry with our friends at AA/UA/US and how that doesn't help our situation pretty much points toward accepting the deal and moving on with more pay, improved work rules and scope with ratios. It's not the best TA, but it is a good deal for us right now. We might do better on the next one if we finally get help from the rest of the pack.