Shortage or Just Hiring Wave- Analysis
05-31-2012, 05:42 AM
#23
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: Window seat
Posts: 5,191
Very nicely done.
How about SW?
Retirement data -
http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/ma...ated-list.html
Slightly out of date but better than nothing(thread started in 2009)
How about SW?
Retirement data -
http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/ma...ated-list.html
Slightly out of date but better than nothing(thread started in 2009)
05-31-2012, 05:44 AM
#24
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: Window seat
Posts: 5,191
His website has FedEx and Virgin America data (hyperlinks on the site)-
Airline Pilot Demand | Audries Aircraft Analysis
Airline Pilot Demand
Current Airline Profiles
Pilot Return on Training Investment
Comparison
Alaska Airlines Pilot Demand
JetBlue Airways Pilot Demand
US Airways Pilot Demand
United Airlines Pilot Demand
Delta Airlines Pilot Demand
American Airlines Pilot Demand
Virgin American Pilot Demand
FedEx Pilot Demand
Delta Airlines Pilot Demand- New TA
Calculator - Pilot Career Compensation Comparison (Staying at A Regional vs. going to a selected carrier)
Airline Pilot Demand | Audries Aircraft Analysis
Airline Pilot Demand
Current Airline Profiles
Pilot Return on Training Investment
Comparison
Alaska Airlines Pilot Demand
JetBlue Airways Pilot Demand
US Airways Pilot Demand
United Airlines Pilot Demand
Delta Airlines Pilot Demand
American Airlines Pilot Demand
Virgin American Pilot Demand
FedEx Pilot Demand
Delta Airlines Pilot Demand- New TA
Calculator - Pilot Career Compensation Comparison (Staying at A Regional vs. going to a selected carrier)
05-31-2012, 06:22 AM
#25
Line Holder
Joined APC: Jan 2008
Position: B757/B767 Typed
Posts: 75
PilotAnalyst, great job on putting together a system that allows us to see the future projections. By posting on this forum, I hope you are able to obtain further data from informed members that will allow you to further refine your numbers. This is a great starting point and I hope you continue to update this information for the future.
05-31-2012, 06:29 AM
#26
Self Employed.
Joined APC: May 2005
Position: Corporate Pilot
Posts: 7,119
optumism?
Great post. Am I missing something though? "we will see only 10% a year from the Regional's go to the majors". This should be horrible news. One in ten will make it through the regionals.
Lets do the math:
Five years instructing to get to a regional (1500 hour rule) then 6 to 8 years minimum to get out to be rewarded by another 9 years in the right seat at a legacy to finally earn as much as a grocery store manager?
A lot of things have to go right over decades of time and effort to make this dream work out. There is no pilot shortage. The legacy airlines need to hire thousands upon thousands per year to make a dent in the stockpile. A few hundred here and there does little to help the bulk of us.
Aviation has become a war of attrition. In the end it will be the guy who sells off everything in his personal life who will get the job. Have a girlfriend or a dog you are fond of and you are out.
I assume that this is supposed to be good news? The data at the optimistic side of things?
Skyhigh
Lets do the math:
Five years instructing to get to a regional (1500 hour rule) then 6 to 8 years minimum to get out to be rewarded by another 9 years in the right seat at a legacy to finally earn as much as a grocery store manager?
A lot of things have to go right over decades of time and effort to make this dream work out. There is no pilot shortage. The legacy airlines need to hire thousands upon thousands per year to make a dent in the stockpile. A few hundred here and there does little to help the bulk of us.
Aviation has become a war of attrition. In the end it will be the guy who sells off everything in his personal life who will get the job. Have a girlfriend or a dog you are fond of and you are out.
I assume that this is supposed to be good news? The data at the optimistic side of things?
Skyhigh
05-31-2012, 07:23 AM
#27
Banned
Joined APC: Mar 2009
Posts: 562
Originally Posted by Palmtree Pilot
Where did you get your information, what are your sources and how do we know your numbers are real? Anybody can put anything on the internet these days
PtP
PtP
05-31-2012, 07:33 AM
#28
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2011
Posts: 139
Originally Posted by Palmtree Pilot
Where did you get your information, what are your sources and how do we know your numbers are real? Anybody can put anything on the internet these days
PtP
PtP
I like how you said "these days" too. As if there was a time when only factual, edited material was on the internet.
05-31-2012, 08:19 AM
#29
New boss = Old boss
Joined APC: Mar 2005
Position: Ca B737
Posts: 2,762
PilotAnalyst, I understand that you predict the total pilots required for an airline by adding the pilots required for new aircraft and the manditory retirements together. That makes sense.
Why is it that, in the case of Alaska Airlines, the two don't add up? For example, in 2013 you predict: 132 pilots needed for new aircraft, 19 manditory retirements, but only predict 92 total new pilots? Shouldn't the number 151?
What am I missing here?
OK, looking again, I see that you made an error on the table but the end result is correct. The "New pilots required for Fleet" numbers are wrong in every column. That's the problem. I expect that is easy to correct.
Thanks for the efforts though. Interesting stuff.
Why is it that, in the case of Alaska Airlines, the two don't add up? For example, in 2013 you predict: 132 pilots needed for new aircraft, 19 manditory retirements, but only predict 92 total new pilots? Shouldn't the number 151?
What am I missing here?
OK, looking again, I see that you made an error on the table but the end result is correct. The "New pilots required for Fleet" numbers are wrong in every column. That's the problem. I expect that is easy to correct.
Thanks for the efforts though. Interesting stuff.
05-31-2012, 09:35 AM
#30
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: Window seat
Posts: 5,191
Originally Posted by SkyHigh
Great post. Am I missing something though? "we will see only 10% a year from the Regional's go to the majors". This should be horrible news. One in ten will make it through the regionals.
Lets do the math:
Five years instructing to get to a regional (1500 hour rule) then 6 to 8 years minimum to get out to be rewarded by another 9 years in the right seat at a legacy to finally earn as much as a grocery store manager?
A lot of things have to go right over decades of time and effort to make this dream work out. There is no pilot shortage. The legacy airlines need to hire thousands upon thousands per year to make a dent in the stockpile. A few hundred here and there does little to help the bulk of us.
Aviation has become a war of attrition. In the end it will be the guy who sells off everything in his personal life who will get the job. Have a girlfriend or a dog you are fond of and you are out.
I assume that this is supposed to be good news? The data at the optimistic side of things?
Skyhigh
Lets do the math:
Five years instructing to get to a regional (1500 hour rule) then 6 to 8 years minimum to get out to be rewarded by another 9 years in the right seat at a legacy to finally earn as much as a grocery store manager?
A lot of things have to go right over decades of time and effort to make this dream work out. There is no pilot shortage. The legacy airlines need to hire thousands upon thousands per year to make a dent in the stockpile. A few hundred here and there does little to help the bulk of us.
Aviation has become a war of attrition. In the end it will be the guy who sells off everything in his personal life who will get the job. Have a girlfriend or a dog you are fond of and you are out.
I assume that this is supposed to be good news? The data at the optimistic side of things?
Skyhigh
10% PER YEAR.
Five yrs to get to 1500hrs? Three yrs if you're hustling.
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
