captfurlough

Excellent work. As we all know our crystal balls are good only out to about 12 months, then they cloud up becuase we can't predict external factors like fuel costs, the general economy, and world affairs. But this is the first time on this forum that we've seen an attempt to use reasonable data to project the demand for pilots in the domestic US.

However, there are some other factors that can be applied to the model, and these would include the number of furloughed guys for example. In some cases, ie. American, there are still about 1800 guys on furlough. No telling how many of these pilots would actually come back...many have moved to other carriers or occupations. The domestic US market is mature, and we can't anticiapte too much additional growth. Even Virgin and Jet Blue seem to have slowed down in spite of larger plans. And further consolidation remains on the horizon.

In the end though, there will be SOME jobs. Given the fact that about half of all domestic flying is done by regionals though, it would take about 17 years to hire all of those pilots currently at regionals waiting for their chance to move up to mainlines. I'm not sure I'd call that a pilot shortage...but the question remains; how many students are begining entry level pilot training programs? Will there be 2000 a year or so who make it far enough to begin careers at the regionals?

PilotAnalyst

Thanks for the input everyone, the model is only as good as the information behind it. Thanks for finding the glitch in my Alaska data, the totals were still good but one of the row's was outputting the wrong data, that’s fixed.

Everyone should know the data is a conservative projection, meaning it is possible for an airline like Delta to announce a huge order of 88 717's to start coming next year and suddenly the whole model changes for that airline (big time). It tries to apply only known quantities, IE aircraft on the order books, current pilot utilization, pilots having to retire by 65. I try very hard not to take into consideration aircraft Options which for some airlines are substantial. I also agree that the new pilot rest rules/fatigue rules will alter the model, but because we just don't know how or how much I disregard those for now. In the future I hope to reflect the new pilot utilization, and any options that become hard orders. Also, the comparison and industry total information is slightly changing as I put on more airlines into the equation, but I hope to have those numbers updated for you to see soon.

Ultimately the data is not meant to be reflected in a positive or negative light, but in an impartial way so that people can judge for themselves. When ever we have our lively hoods at stake we tend to become irrational(just like some finiancial investors), but I'm hoping to put some rationality back into the equation.

Thanks for suggesting Spirit which I just finished and I am currently working on Southwest and UPS. Please continue to pass on any additional bugs in my numbers.

Virgin America Projection
Virgin America Pilot Demand | Audries Aircraft Analysis

FedEx Projection
FedEx Pilot Demand | Audries Aircraft Analysis

Spirit Airlines Projection
Spirit Airlines Hiring Demand | Audries Aircraft Analysis

Delta Airlines if TA Passes
Delta Hiring Projection- TA | Audries Aircraft Analysis

Sliceback

Thanks! Great work.

Here's a recommendation - is it possible to align the airlines alphabetically instead of randomly?

Cleared4Option

Couple of things... first of all, great job and thanks. I had a couple of informal spreadsheets that I kept on my own computer with 'snapshots' of published retirement numbers and projected seniority at different air carriers if I were to get hired at X, Y, or Z. It's nice to see a lot of this data in one place.

The biggest thing that I would say is that you have a good snapshot of today - assuming nothing was to change in the intervening years. As we all know, the business is fluid. You have to make the best decision on your individual career with the data that you have at any given time... so thank you for putting out some good data for 'today.' I have bookmarked it, and look forward to the updates.

Also, the only thing that I would say that you need to change in your basic assumption is how the new rest rules are going to affect hiring and staffing for the year(s) 2013-2014 for each carrier (# of warm bodies per aircraft for planning purposes) and the small bump in the overall chart that will be affected across the board. Other than that... it's good stuff. Thanks again.

trent890

Could you include in the line break at the top of the page, above the figures in the "pilot hiring table" the total pilot employment numbers for each carrier that you do the analysis of?

So in that first section, you could view the number of total pilots employed, then scan across to see the calculated average representing the number of pilots per aircraft.

Then, as you move down into the table where the fleet numbers may be changing from year to year, there is always the two other numbers near the top of the page for reference; representing total number of pilots employed by the airline, and the average number of pilots per aircraft at that airline.

billythekid

I think it'd be a good number to see when a newhire would be expected to hit the 40-50% mark of the seniority list (ballpark of Captain upgrade).

EZBW

As mentioned repeatedly above....great post and thank you for sharing.

For those of us contemplating going overseas...any chance of including foreign carriers? (eg: EY, EK, QR)

Thanks.

block30

Howdy Pilot Analyst--If this has already been answered, I am a tool; your Total Combined Pilot Demand (including retirements and growth) graph.....that is just for six airlines?

Thanks for your efforts! You came out of the gate with an impossibly high expectation level from all of us.....Couldn't your first post have been about Go Jets or "my regional is better than yours"? You can only improve from there

billythekid

Actually the percentages are there as well. Super neat tool.

Senior Skipper

First off, very nice work.

I looked at the total pilot demand page, and saw how it would affect the regional industry. From those numbers, assuming all RJ pilots go to majors, and majors hire only RJ pilots, 50% of today's present RJ pilots will be gone by 2019.

The way I interpret that is that somebody who's starting at a regional now will be looking at an upgrade in the next 6-7 years. Add another 1.5 years to get the PIC time, and you've got 9 years from regional newhire to major newhire.

Armed with that, I'd advise people looking at regionals now to carefully consider which airline you go to. No sense looking for the quick upgrade, because it isn't likely to happen. Go somewhere you can see yourself being happy for the next decade.