Go Back  Airline Pilot Central Forums > Airline Pilot Forums > Major
Shortage or Just Hiring Wave- Analysis >

Shortage or Just Hiring Wave- Analysis

Notices
Major Legacy, National, and LCC

Shortage or Just Hiring Wave- Analysis

Old 06-01-2012, 07:51 AM
  #41  
Line Holder
 
Kubota's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Jan 2009
Posts: 45
Default

"Regionals for the next decade" OUCH! I hope when my commitment is up I never have to go back there.
Kubota is offline  
Old 06-01-2012, 08:29 AM
  #42  
Banned
 
Joined APC: Feb 2011
Position: 756 Left Side
Posts: 1,629
Default

While interesting data, I would say that the fleet numbers are probably incorrect for many of the airlines you have listed.

As a UCAL Holdings Pilot, I have no doubt (and we have been told through numerous ACP's) that the UAL 757's will be parked first, as we receive replacement 73's. On top of that, I wonder if you figured in the loss of the 767-2 on the Continental Side. That fleet will be gone by early part of next year (just got an email from a CP about that) (plus the last few 737-5's). The replacements are suppose to be the 787.. but they will not be here before the last 76-2 leaves.

I do believe that UCAL, along with many of the other carriers you have listed.. will be hiring in the future. Just not in the numbers you have mentioned.

Will be interesting to go back to this thread in the next few years and compare.

Motch
horrido27 is offline  
Old 06-01-2012, 09:54 AM
  #43  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Jul 2010
Position: window seat
Posts: 12,522
Default

Originally Posted by Senior Skipper View Post
First off, very nice work.

I looked at the total pilot demand page, and saw how it would affect the regional industry. From those numbers, assuming all RJ pilots go to majors, and majors hire only RJ pilots, 50% of today's present RJ pilots will be gone by 2019.

The way I interpret that is that somebody who's starting at a regional now will be looking at an upgrade in the next 6-7 years. Add another 1.5 years to get the PIC time, and you've got 9 years from regional newhire to major newhire.

Armed with that, I'd advise people looking at regionals now to carefully consider which airline you go to. No sense looking for the quick upgrade, because it isn't likely to happen. Go somewhere you can see yourself being happy for the next decade.
While that's sound advice in and of itself, people will agressively pursue the airlines with the quickest upgrades as well as deal their managements an ace to be the lowest bidder to get the next AC bid. Many pilots will see upgrades less than 9 years once their is movement, even if the average remains about that. PFT has been replaced with pay for upgrade with a crappy contract and predatory bargaining.
gloopy is offline  
Old 06-01-2012, 12:16 PM
  #44  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Senior Skipper's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Jan 2008
Position: the correct seat
Posts: 1,422
Default

Well I hope that most regional FO's don't have to stay in the right seat for 6-7 years as the data suggests, but it is a very real possibility. The data is a forecast based on a snapshot of the industry today. An economic change could move the numbers in either direction.

When I made my move to the regionals, I looked for the place I could be comfy with. I had friends who jumped at another airline because it offered a quick upgrade, and now their names are on the furlough list.
Senior Skipper is offline  
Old 06-01-2012, 06:04 PM
  #45  
Line Holder
Thread Starter
 
Joined APC: May 2012
Posts: 70
Default

I've been feverishly aligning things Alphabetically

Trent 890 I'm going through each of the airlines putting the number of pilots in the airline the data uses. As far as breaking it down by fleet, I think that would be very cool, but I just don't have access to that kind of data. If I did the model would be more precise. For example if American buys a 777 we could apply the pilot/aircraft fleet ratio for that particular aircraft coming on the property. As we know the staffing requirements of wide body aircraft are different than domestic narrow body.

I would like to do the high Expat hiring international companies soon(Emirates, Etihad, Qatar), when I have time, I think that would be very interesting. I'm not expecting to see much in retirement data but I think the growth projections would be fascinating.

Just remember what the data “means” is dynamic and depends on who you are. As I am adding more airlines to my totals, my Total Hiring Profile is changing, More than I expected. I should have the Totals/Comparison data up tomorrow.

I was able to work through Southwest and UPS today. I had harder time than usual getting reliable fleet information for these carriers so I applied a GDP model to Southwest, and nothing to UPS. If anybody has additional intel on these carriers please let me know.

Southwest Airlines Hiring Demand
Southwest Airlines Pilot Demand | Audries Aircraft Analysis

UPS
UPS Pilot Demand | Audries Aircraft Analysis
PilotAnalyst is offline  
Old 06-02-2012, 09:41 AM
  #46  
Line Holder
Thread Starter
 
Joined APC: May 2012
Posts: 70
Default

Ok the combined totals and comparison is done, I tried to make the data as easy on the eyes as possible.

Comparison and Combined Totals
Airline Pilot Demand Comparison | Audries Aircraft Analysis

Learned some interesting things, the 10-12% a year draw from the Regionals should last up through 2020, at which point a couple of things could happen. If Boeings Projections are correct we will see the draw from the regionals, (If they remain the same size over the next 8 years) go to 20%, which would be a 2.5 year upgrade for someone who gets hired at a regional in 2020. However if Boeing's predictions are still correct but the 2.3% domestic growth comes from larger aircraft, ie CRJ 700 vs 50, 737-800 vs MD80's we might see stagnant fleet growth. Both lines are represented on the page

If this is the case we can expect 10-12% to be draw from the regionals for the next 18 years.

A couple of factors change this, Military Pilots, which are not included into the calculation, will represent a percentage of Pilots that will go to the Majors displacing some Regional Pilots who will then stay longer at the Regionals. What that percentage is I do not know.

In addition- If we see substantial regional shrinkage, in the next 8 years with the loss of the 50 seat market (due to High MX cost, Fuel Cost, no replacement) even with a 2-1 swap for a 70 seater, the Regionals may contract in size as pilots leave for the majors, increasing the amount of time an FO will stay an FO at the Regionals, beyond the projected 4-5 years. At the same time as the Regionals contract in size this percentage draw from them will proportionally go up. So it could be kind of a wash.

The good news is if the Regionals shrink to half of their current size in the next 8 years the draw will represent 20-24% of the new size per year at that time. This would equate to 2.5 year upgrades as the average. This coupled with the possible growth projected past 2020 at 2.3% per year, and new draw rates of 40% due to the shrunk regionals, we could at that time I think have a potential shortage. I do not believe 40% attrition rates at the regionals is sustainable. That shouldn't be the case though till the middle of the 2020's.
PilotAnalyst is offline  
Old 06-03-2012, 04:09 AM
  #47  
Feeling blessed.
 
HalinTexas's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Feb 2005
Position: Was I finally in the right place at the right time?
Posts: 536
Default

Not to belittle your work, or really disagree with it specifically, as it's all about data collection and whatever theory you're trying to prove.

In my 20-odd years in this industry, I don't think one prediction I've ever heard has come true. I know none of MY predictions (expectations?) have.

The one thing I've learned is don't give up hope, but get real. Believe it when you see it.

Old adage: You can prove anything with statistics.

Nice work though. I hope you're making money off of this sideline.
HalinTexas is offline  
Old 06-03-2012, 07:16 AM
  #48  
Line Holder
 
Joined APC: Jun 2010
Posts: 65
Default

You SWA numbers are incorrect. They don't take into account that the 717s are going away and aircraft are being deferred.
Cruizecontrol is offline  
Old 06-03-2012, 08:41 AM
  #49  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Feb 2011
Position: Back in right seat
Posts: 206
Default

For my part, thanks for publishing your estimate. I did a similar calculation last year to decide whether to stay at a regional at that point or move on, though not as complete as yours.

Any calculation I see adds more information to take into consideration, it's clear that unless you are in the top 30% of a "good regional" seniority AND at least 45 years of age you're better off moving on. I think the risk/reward of staying at a regional becomes the better option at that point unless you get on to UPS/FedEx.

We all know that the actual movement will radically change with just small changes in the industry but we still need some sort of calculation in order to try and make the best decision for our careers.
IrishNJ is offline  
Old 06-03-2012, 09:33 AM
  #50  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Crawl's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Position: Errplanes
Posts: 367
Default

So what happens after the US Airways/American merger? =P
Crawl is offline  
Related Topics
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
bull
Major
43
04-18-2009 08:46 PM
FL450
Hiring News
5
07-23-2008 01:25 PM
warhawk08
Hiring News
14
07-11-2008 04:31 PM
utedrummer
Flight Schools and Training
27
03-04-2008 06:41 PM
Oldfreightdawg
Major
1
03-03-2008 06:43 PM

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


Thread Tools
Search this Thread
Your Privacy Choices