Pilot shortage date?
#11
His data also showed that nearly 20,000 are retiring in the next ten years. Would you call that a shortage?
#12
We are talking "pilot shortage at the majors", as I understand the thread....
#13
The numbers looking out beyond 10 years are even greater. I think it's safe to assume the system will be squeezed but there's no way to know what the results will be.
#14
Lol...I've been qouted. 'Twould be nice to get the age 65 data on more companies, even if a regional. I am interested in total part 121 retirement volume. Not that one retirement equals one new hire, but the numbers add up. Pilot Analyst has done a nice job, and hopefully everyone funnels their data to Pilot Analyst.
I just realized my initial post said 33,500 retirements by 2030. That number should have been 50,000 retirements by 2030. The retirements increase after 2022 not decrease.
#16
Sadly, what I predict, in the event of any shortage, is sadly, increased regional hiring and reduced "major" (or whatever they will be called then...) hiring. In other words, lets say yes a "shortage."
However the lack of talent will be in the RJ cockpits as majors downsize due to RJ feed. The RJ lines will need to hire, yes. The RJ cockpits today are not full of young spring chickens either. They will be retiring also.
The exception to this will be SWA however one has to wonder how much more they can actually expand. SWA is a great company and all that, but how many more flights does Lubbock need ? Lets me serious. I wonder how much expansion they can pull off in the next 10-20 yrs. Plus they have purposely hired all age brackets, contrary to AA's "average age 28" style of hiring (which is now biting them in the rear.). So it is anyones guess if a "shortage" will occur at SWA.
FedEx, UPS ? Who knows.
In other industries, a talent shortage is addressed by companies offering hiring incentives, recruiters going to campus and recruiting Juniors versus graduates (getting them early), and other things.
I am not going to hold my breath for that to happen at the airlines. When FedEx offers 10K "sign on bonus" to become an FO, or SWA HR person flies my wife and I to HQ and takes us to dinner and a NFL ball game, then yes, we have a pilot shortage.
Good discussion.
Whats the start date again ?
However the lack of talent will be in the RJ cockpits as majors downsize due to RJ feed. The RJ lines will need to hire, yes. The RJ cockpits today are not full of young spring chickens either. They will be retiring also.
The exception to this will be SWA however one has to wonder how much more they can actually expand. SWA is a great company and all that, but how many more flights does Lubbock need ? Lets me serious. I wonder how much expansion they can pull off in the next 10-20 yrs. Plus they have purposely hired all age brackets, contrary to AA's "average age 28" style of hiring (which is now biting them in the rear.). So it is anyones guess if a "shortage" will occur at SWA.
FedEx, UPS ? Who knows.
In other industries, a talent shortage is addressed by companies offering hiring incentives, recruiters going to campus and recruiting Juniors versus graduates (getting them early), and other things.
I am not going to hold my breath for that to happen at the airlines. When FedEx offers 10K "sign on bonus" to become an FO, or SWA HR person flies my wife and I to HQ and takes us to dinner and a NFL ball game, then yes, we have a pilot shortage.
Good discussion.
Whats the start date again ?
#17
In 2030, if the average APC user is 35, then we will all be 53.
Can you adjust the years for us ?
#18
Bracing for Fallacies
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Position: In favor of good things, not in favor of bad things
Posts: 3,543
I get the feeling all this shortage talk is what is keeping the pipelines flowing with students. We're just fanning the flames.
Also, I wish the flight schools bandying this pilot shortage would disclose why they think there is a shortage. So old guys are retiring. So what. Retirements happen in every industry, no? But why might there be reduced interest in getting into professional piloting? Low pay, extreme training cost, instability, shady operators, whip saw, inevitable furloughs, prolonged time away from home...??
Also, I wish the flight schools bandying this pilot shortage would disclose why they think there is a shortage. So old guys are retiring. So what. Retirements happen in every industry, no? But why might there be reduced interest in getting into professional piloting? Low pay, extreme training cost, instability, shady operators, whip saw, inevitable furloughs, prolonged time away from home...??
#19
Line Holder
Joined APC: May 2012
Posts: 70
The interesting thing to consider is that people are projecting a “shortage” based almost solely on Retirements. What that means is that 30-35 years ago when the regional airlines were many, many times smaller than what they are now, the Industry/Military was able to provide enough pilots for the major and other large domestic carriers during a time of intense domestic growth. The “shortage” talked about today is based off of the backside of a hiring curve that started 35 years ago, the backside is almost always less drastic than the front-side(due to early retirements, illness, furloughs..etc).
The best thing to do is probably ask somebody who got hired 30 years ago, what was it like? Was their a huge shortage? Was every regional airline pilot at that time able to get on the airline of their choice, or were some unable to get hired, and remained at the Regional's?
30-35 years ago the conditions were
Favorable Conditions for Shortage:
-Very small regional pool to hire pilots from(were talking the days of Navajo's and Metro 2's, airlines like Skywest had only like 20 airplanes)
-A regional airline system that was in the process of growing(thus demanding more pilots of their own)
Non favorable Conditions:
-flight training was relatively inexpensive
-Many Military Pilots
Today our conditions are different.
Favorable Conditions for Shortage:
-Very expensive flight training
-ATP requirement
-less Military Pilots
Non Favorable:
-A very large regional pool to hire from
-A regional airline system that is shrinking and is projected to shrink for the next 10 years.
The Question we have to ask ourselves is why did we not see a Shortage 35 years ago? Or did we? If we didn't see a shortage 35 years ago, what makes us think with our current conditions today, and not as drastic hiring curve as seen 35 years, we would see one today?
The best thing to do is probably ask somebody who got hired 30 years ago, what was it like? Was their a huge shortage? Was every regional airline pilot at that time able to get on the airline of their choice, or were some unable to get hired, and remained at the Regional's?
30-35 years ago the conditions were
Favorable Conditions for Shortage:
-Very small regional pool to hire pilots from(were talking the days of Navajo's and Metro 2's, airlines like Skywest had only like 20 airplanes)
-A regional airline system that was in the process of growing(thus demanding more pilots of their own)
Non favorable Conditions:
-flight training was relatively inexpensive
-Many Military Pilots
Today our conditions are different.
Favorable Conditions for Shortage:
-Very expensive flight training
-ATP requirement
-less Military Pilots
Non Favorable:
-A very large regional pool to hire from
-A regional airline system that is shrinking and is projected to shrink for the next 10 years.
The Question we have to ask ourselves is why did we not see a Shortage 35 years ago? Or did we? If we didn't see a shortage 35 years ago, what makes us think with our current conditions today, and not as drastic hiring curve as seen 35 years, we would see one today?
#20
Line Holder
Joined APC: Feb 2006
Position: FAA
Posts: 59
Excellent points. Excellent posts too.
It will be interesting to see what the future brings. The demand for skilled labor will increase. I am not sure about the supply though.
What is funny is to listen to the debate regarding a "shortage." As if there is an objective measure.
Thanks again for your informative posts!
It will be interesting to see what the future brings. The demand for skilled labor will increase. I am not sure about the supply though.
What is funny is to listen to the debate regarding a "shortage." As if there is an objective measure.
Thanks again for your informative posts!
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