Pilot shortage date?
 

That last thread was pretty beat up. Below is a compilation from other threads. Draw conclusions from here.


"Combined (age 65 retirements) for Fed Ex, UPS, Delta, AA, US Air East and West, Alaska, Continental, United, Southwest, Air Tran, PinnaColAba, Skywest."
Total / Year

187..... 2012
1116..... 2013
1254..... 2014
1370..... 2015
1547..... 2016
1870..... 2017
1987..... 2018
2251..... 2019
2522..... 2020
2815..... 2021
2896..... 2022
-------------------
19,815 total

Estimated retirements through 2030: 33,500

Total number of Regional pilots: 22,000
Total number of Major pilots: 60,000

Thanks for the info.

When you consider India was taking high school graduates, giving them training, and putting them in the right seat of airliners, I don't think we will ever see a true pilot shortage here in the USA. There is always someone who is willing to fly the plane for less or to pay out of pocket just to get the hours.

2030 is almost 20 years away. You say there are about 60,000 pilots at the majors. A careers is about 40 years long. By my math 30,000 retirements in the next twenty years is not a shortage.

What is the start-date ?

According to my numbers which are closely related to yours (audriesaircraftanalysis comparison), becuase of such a large pool of candidates here in the United States (22,000 Regional Pilots). At the peak years in the decade of the 2020's we will see anywhere from 10-15% draw from the Regionals. Regional FO's during that period can still expect time in the right seat of up to 5 years.

Some refer to some unkown factors like, ATP requirements, and the new Fatigue rules. But the fact remains there impact is unknown.

We might see a shortage in the late 2020's IF GDP grows at a good rate, however with our current economic outlook in the States, I wouldn't bet alot of money on a high GDP growth rate.

I kind of cringe when I hear business people use the word "Shortage" of employees, because its not a lack of people who can become qualified its a lack of people who are willing to work for the amount of pay and working conditions offered. Currently their is no lack of people willing to do this Job for very little.

You knock it off with the good posts. I think there is an APC limit on how many good ones in a row before you *must* throw in an obligatory flame, troll, GoJetss, or a 'my company is better than yours' post. ;)

Lol...I've been qouted. :) 'Twould be nice to get the age 65 data on more companies, even if a regional. I am interested in total part 121 retirement volume. Not that one retirement equals one new hire, but the numbers add up. Pilot Analyst has done a nice job, and hopefully everyone funnels their data to Pilot Analyst.

I think you have to factor in that the top third of many regional's lists -- and also anyone else over 50ish may not ever leave that regional, they are just happy where they are. So I would work that number backward to about 15,000 ish-- but that is today, and those hiring projections are drawn out over a period of time sufficient to replenish the pilot numbers (so I am not trying to suggest there will be a shortage).

When you look at the numbers, also account for the fact that not everyone gets hired -- and there are limitations on how fast you can reapply and interview. Given that xyz airline may have a history of hiring as little as 25% of interviewees... and abc airline may hire as much as 50% ... a lot of folks will have the opportunity, just maybe not the success. Given the numbers in the first post, and if you assumed a 1 for 1 replacement in 2013, that would need somewhere in the ballpark of 2 to 4000 interviews, maybe more! While there may be a 10 - 15% draw at peak, it could take as much as interviewing 20 - 25% of the available pool to create that draw.

So regional FO's need not give up hope, there will be opportunity and it may come quicker than 5 years.

I'm glad the analysis is helpful.


You are correct we can safely assume eventually Regional FO’s will make it to upgrade after a significant number of years. You make a very interesting point concerning percentages of pilots interviewed vs hired at specific Regionals as they seek to find new pilots. One of the reason’s my analysis is not very concerned about this is the number of people still receiving Commercial and CFI licenses in the US each year.
AOPA’s report indicated over 8000 commercial licenses were issued in 2010, and over 4000 CFI licenses issued in the same year. Assuming just half of those CFI’s would like to go on to the Majors and a quarter of the commercial license recipients have other ways(banner towing, cargo, etc.) to get sufficient flight time to move on to the airlines. That is over 4000 qualified searching applicants for the Regionals to hire.
Most regional pilots can expect the Delta TA to be a shadow of things to come, and can safely assume most regionals will see 25%-40% reductions in fleet size over the next 8-10 years. Let’s say we ignore this assumption and assume the Regionals will have to replace each pilot that goes to the majors, 1 for 1. At the hiring peak with the current numbers of pilots in the pipeline and continue to come down the pipeline, there will still be 125-150% of the necessary pilots to replace those that move to the Majors.
However if we see a significant reduction of pilots getting license’s from the current numbers over an extended period of time, we may begin to see hiring problems if it’s still 1 for 1.
I don’t share this to take away hope; my hope is that pilots being armed with better information can make better decisions. It’s true someone who spends 210000$ on flight training would probably see this information as bad. To spend almost a Quarter of a Million dollars on an investment that has the kind of return the numbers are showing, would be questionable at best investment practice. However someone who gets a 4 year degree from the local community college (in Business or Basket weaving) and then spends 20000$-40000$ on flight training might view this information completely differently. It depends completely on the individual, but what will be good for everybody is if Rationalization comes back into the equation.