Scoop

Wow,

Almost 2928 Pilots by 2016!! The Koolaid must be extra strong. I am leaning toward a yes vote, but still find this awfully hard to believe.

I think there is a better chance that monkeys might start flying out of my butt before we hire 2928 pilots in the next 4 1/2 years.

Oh well - Plan for the worst and hope for the best.

Scoop

forgot to bid

I didnt know we had 3,298 pilots retiring by 2016!!!!!

Columbia

Bill Lumberg

That is great news. I will be a senior 717A before I know it.

Bill Lumberg

12-06
June 23, 2012






Delta Pilot Staffing -- 2012-2016



We had not planned to address staffing issues other than those already provided in previous communiqués, since a detailed discussion calls for forward looking projections and assumptions. There have been some questions and, unfortunately, a lot of rumors perpetuated, which have no basis in fact concerning the impact on pilot staffing resulting from the shift in flying from DCI to mainline due to the Tentative Agreement (TA). If pilots are considering these impacts in relation to our TA, then that consideration should be based on facts and not internet rumors and disinformation. Our only aim is to ensure that your decisions are made on solid information and not on contrived arguments.



In addition to staffing changes associated with the TA, other effects on pilot staffing and hiring include cumulative retirements over the next few years and planned fleet changes that were announced prior to the TA. Projecting future pilot staffing for Delta is difficult without making some basic reasonable assumptions. The assumptions used here are generated from historical data that has proven to be quite accurate, year over year.



Assumptions and methodology:

Fleet:

· DC-9s will be phased out by the end of 2013

· MD-90 fleet grows by 30 aircraft to 65 by the end of 2013, 5.5 crews per aircraft

· B-717s arrive by listed schedule below, 7 crews per aircraft (typical for new type)

· 737-900s and 757s are staffing neutral



Aircraft Adds
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

MD-90
10
20
0
0
0

B-717
0
16
36
36
0




Retirements:

Regardless of any early retirement program offered, we know some pilots will retire before age 65, whether through personal choice or medical disability. Since not all pilots will reach age 65 before they retire, we need to find a reasonable model that helps predict future retirements. Using a historical analysis as a predictive model, we find that pilots will retire as they age based on the following schedule.



Age
60
61
62
63
64
65
(Average)
62.7

Attrition
10%
15%
20%
20%
20%
15%
100%




For example, if 100 pilots reach age 60 in 2013, we can predict that 10 would likely retire in 2013, 15 would likely retire in 2014, 20 would likely retire in 2015, and so on. Using this schedule, we can predict that the average retirement age is 62.7, which closely correlates to the actuarial analysis performed during the SLI hearings that predicted an average retirement age of 62.4. As a cross-check to the accuracy of this model, a comparison was made between the numbers of pilots scheduled to reach age 65 in any given year based on the original merged seniority list from 2008 and the June 1, 2012 seniority list. This comparison shows a close correlation with the predictions above. The following table shows the number of pilots who would reach age 65 in a given year based on the original merged seniority list compared to how many are left today.



Number of Pilots Who Would Turn 65 in a Given Year at the Time of the Merger
Year
Number of Pilots Left Who Will Turn 65 in a Given Year based in the June 1, 2012 Seniority List

25
2012
13

148
2013
85

239
2014
132

280
2015
195

332
2016
258

390
2017
353

477
2018
456

563
2019
542

653
2020
642

834
2021
820

884
2022
873

840
2023
827

824
2024
814




Let’s look at an example. Pilots who were born in 1950 will reach mandatory retirement in 2015. At the time of the merger there were 280 pilots in this group. The table below shows the expected attrition over time based on the predicted schedule:



Pilots on list born in 1950 – total of 280
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

Predicted % of 280 to retire
10%
15%
20%
20%
20%
15%

Predicted # of retirements by year
28
42
56
56
56
42




Now let’s look at what has happened to date since the merger. Using the first chart above and interpolating five months into 2012, we would expect 93 pilots from this group to have already retired, leaving 187 pilots from the group still active. The actual number remaining at the beginning of June was 195, which aligns closely with the predicted schedule.



For the RMA retirement program (dependent on the ratification of the TA), the most conservative assumption is that the oldest 300 pilots will retire. Using this assumption, we can then decrement future retirements accordingly, based on the predicted schedule described above. The chart below shows predicted retirements (including the RMA) through the end of 2016. The following table shows predicted retirements including those associated with the RMA for the next five years. Note that 50 pilots have already retired this year.




2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

Retirements
300
223
347
401
495




Productivity:

The changes to the scheduling sections of the Tentative Agreement may result in a net loss in pilot staffing of approximately 125 positions. This number is net of all changes to the contract including bid period adjustments, change to ALV/TLV, changes to reserve, increased pay for vacation, increased pay for CQ Training, and all other changes associated with this TA.



Summary:

The following tables show staffing changes resulting from the factors described above (fleet changes, productivity increases, and predicted retirements) both with and without a ratified TA:






2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

Retirements
350
253
267
401
495

DC-9
-100
-175
0
0
0

Productivity
-125
0
0
0
0

MD-90
110
220
0
0
0

B-717
0
224
504
504
0








Net Per Year
235
522
771
905
495

Cumulative
235
757
1528
2433
2928


2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

Retirements
224
298
347
401
496

DC-9
-100
-175
0
0
0

Productivity
0
0
0
0
0

MD-90
110
220
0
0
0

B-717
0
0
0
0
0








Net Per Year
234
343
347
401
496

Cumulative
234
577
924
1325
1821


Staffing Change With Ratified TA
Staffing Change Without Ratified TA






The tabulated data shown above is presented in graphical form on the following two pages.





Effects of Individual Staffing Changes













Predicted Staffing Changes



Conclusion:

The analysis described in this Touch & Gos is based on flat system-wide capacity, which is less than what Delta is predicting. If capacity grows, the staffing differences predicted above would be even greater. Under the TA, there are hard caps placed on the number of DCI aircraft and therefore all growth flying must go to mainline. Flight Operations recently announced that they are prepared to begin the pilot hiring process as early as the fourth quarter of this year. This is consistent with the analysis contained in this Touch & Gos. Once the hiring starts, it will likely continue at a steady pace for several years

Bill Lumberg

Hey look Columbia, the memo talks about you:


There have been some questions and, unfortunately, a lot of rumors perpetuated, which have no basis in fact concerning the impact on pilot staffing resulting from the shift in flying from DCI to mainline due to the Tentative Agreement (TA)

NuGuy

That's the first time I've ever seen an ALPA publication resort to the "people don't make it to 65" argument to justify its staffing position. It's simply a subject that is normally taboo.

They're digging deep.

Nu

FL370

Interesting to note that there is no mention of the 320s running out of cycles and the staffing implications that will have.

georgetg

Not only that, there's a glaring flaw in the assumptions:

The staffing changes are permanent and will apply every year we have the TA proposed changes in the PWA. That means the currently quoted negative impact on staffing of 125 will be in effect for every year the TA language persists in the PWA.



The information presented in the Touch-and-go is a bit hard to believe, because the numbers keep changing:

Roadshow Handout:


Roadshow Slide 62, Mid June (still up, on the Sec 6 website):


Now the Touch-and-Go quotes the proposed TA will generate 175 additional pilot positions leaving a surplus of 125.

At very best it seems odd that with all the expert costing and review that occurs during the negotiations and while the TA was being deliberated on by the MEC would result in accurate estimates on how many pilot jobs will be added/removed as a result of the changes.

Net difference in supposed staffing impact of 103 pilots...

I sent numerous emails to my reps and received feedback from them and our E&FA guy that quoted 11 pilots per jet for the 717, not 14 as is claimed in the 12-06 T&G.

Net difference of supposed 717 staffing of 264 pilots...

Then there are the early out numbers, truth be told, nobody really knows.
At the roadshow the slide showed 250 early outs. The brief from the NC was that the company expected more but that they believed it would be in the mid 200s (that's also on the slide) Now the T-&-G says 350 early-outs is a "conservative" number.

Net difference of supposed early out of 100 pilots...

Add it all up and magically an additional 467 pilot positions have been generated vs DALPA's own original estimate. Even if everything is legitimate, how do we know non of the negative impact has similarly been directed and examined under a microscope. It's not completely unreasonable to expect the negative impact on staffing to double, if the positive impact can increase by 467 pilot positions...

From a real AE type perspective it's also important to consider there are 275 seniority list pilots assigned to the DC-9, they will displace and that will have a net negative impact of 275 pilots in 2013...

Cheers
George

DeadHead

But only if the TA passes, ain't that right Lawnchair?