Lol. I see what you did there..
:D

The problem, from a job seeker's perspective is competition. For the better part of a decade RJ Captains have say waiting for the stagnant environment to lift so they can move on. They have 10,000+ hours in an RJ and will have identical resumes, blue suits, and red ties. (ie all are well qualified)

Meanwhile traditional mainline jobs have been outsourced to larger and larger Rjs over the same time period. For example, the 80-120 seat "mainline" metal that used to be entry level mainline equipment has been outsourced: Bac 1-11, DC9, F28, F100, BAE146... Etc

Finally, consolidation has resulted in WAY fewer mainline companies to apply with.

More competition for fewer jobs = continues stagnation even during a period of growth.

Yet so many of those RJ CAs with 10,000+ hours of PIC turbine feel they have too much invested and refuse to leave their regionals. Plus, some majors aren't comfortable hiring such high time pilots as they feel they are set in their ways or feel entitled. Several years after I was hired at NWA I had a long chat with one of the pilots on my interview board. I asked why they hired so many pilots with so little PIC turbine. I was told it was because they were having difficulties with the high time RJ CAs. Now I'm not saying this will prevent a high time guy from getting hired, rather the high time doesn't guarantee a job.

Also, I don't know of anything over 86 seats being outsourced.

None of you guys are talking about the continuing wave of overseas hiring, which will affect all pilots, including US pilots. Many US pilots do not understand how difficult the hiring situation is overseas, and how it will reach epic levels moving forward.

cliff
HHN

In my opinion the overseas companies will bleed like the regionals later this decade. Most of those expats will eventually come back as hiring begins to fire on all cylinders several years from now.

I really hope it puts some upward pressure on the salaries and QOL in the next 10 years.

How exactly is a bigger supply of pilots fighting for fewer jobs gonna help raise salaries?

Not trying to start any fight here but maybe the attitude about the locals might have something to do with it. Just sayin'!

It is not going to be a larger supply of pilots. Regardless of what those expats decide to do, hiring will increase through out the decade. I don't have any numbers but I'm sure their are WAY less expats than the retirements that are upcoming.

The number of current medicals however are posted and have been falling the last decade. Doesn't mean those with certificates won't decide to come back to the business if things get better but it does hint at the fact that we have less CURRENTLY qualified pilots.

Not to mention the hiring situation overseas, which is based off the pure fantasy flash in the pan hypernomics growth projections, coupled with Howard Hughes at Farnborough fantasy orders, won't even come remotely close to materializing.

There will be net growth, but it won't be anything like the spastic Keynesian extrapolations. They are all massive bubbles too. If/when they pop they pop, and if/when we pop they pop.

The whole world isn't going to see hourly A380 service to every major city, which is pretty much what would have to happen to accomidate even a small fraction of the asinine order books in the aggregate.