Mainline airline pilot hiring to increase
08-31-2012, 12:17 PM
#21
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2012
Posts: 125
Originally Posted by HotMamaPilot
So you have bought into the aforementioned and so called forthcoming "pilot shortage" ?
Lack of young talent is only one aspect of the problems I think majors will be facing. Since the people retiring are all hirees of the dawn of the jet age, I figure that while they are retiring we will see hiring in demand as much as that of the beginning of the jet age. In the previous jet age though, Asia was not a developed and hiring market either. airlinepilotcentral.com is a great resource to get an idea of how many pilots are retiring in the coming years. Just select legacy airlines and click on any one of them. Going from a dozen retirees in 2012 to 400 or more in 10 years will surely have an effect on hiring.
Personally, I believe the hiring is already starting. Going through the forum of hiring news one can see that airlines such as Spirit, US Airways, Delta, and others are starting to hire and maybe I haven't been massively attuned to hiring before, but it seems like airlines are hiring in ways we never would have seen in 2009. I hate to ramble, but this is some of the differences I see in the next 10 years over the previous 10 years.
But maybe I'm just a regional pilot full of wishful thinking.
08-31-2012, 12:28 PM
#22
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2008
Position: 320 F.O.
Posts: 1,386
Originally Posted by BenS
Well, I do know that many pilots in the industry have been hearing about a looming pilot shortage that hasn't transpired since the 80's. But here is why I feel the coming years will prove different than all the previous rumors. Primarily, with any business, young talent must always come in to replace old. This forum (posts such as "leaving the industry" or "kid who wants to be a pilot") is filled with pilots that tell young talent not to be pilots. I've always wondered how many people who wanted to be career pilots won't persue it because of the advice of others. But being talked out of it aside, the credit crises of the last few years also prevented those who wanted to become pilots from actually persuing their dream. Bottom line is, when my instructor was a flight instructor in 2008, he and 5 other instructors flew full workdays 6 days a week. By 2010, maybe one flight a day, or in some cases, one a week. There has been a darastic reduction of available talent. My instructor did instruction for 5 years, I was an instructor for 1 year. I believe that is a sign to me that movement is happening now that wasn't happening in 2009.
Lack of young talent is only one aspect of the problems I think majors will be facing. Since the people retiring are all hirees of the dawn of the jet age, I figure that while they are retiring we will see hiring in demand as much as that of the beginning of the jet age. In the previous jet age though, Asia was not a developed and hiring market either. airlinepilotcentral.com is a great resource to get an idea of how many pilots are retiring in the coming years. Just select legacy airlines and click on any one of them. Going from a dozen retirees in 2012 to 400 or more in 10 years will surely have an effect on hiring.
Personally, I believe the hiring is already starting. Going through the forum of hiring news one can see that airlines such as Spirit, US Airways, Delta, and others are starting to hire and maybe I haven't been massively attuned to hiring before, but it seems like airlines are hiring in ways we never would have seen in 2009. I hate to ramble, but this is some of the differences I see in the next 10 years over the previous 10 years.
But maybe I'm just a regional pilot full of wishful thinking.
Lack of young talent is only one aspect of the problems I think majors will be facing. Since the people retiring are all hirees of the dawn of the jet age, I figure that while they are retiring we will see hiring in demand as much as that of the beginning of the jet age. In the previous jet age though, Asia was not a developed and hiring market either. airlinepilotcentral.com is a great resource to get an idea of how many pilots are retiring in the coming years. Just select legacy airlines and click on any one of them. Going from a dozen retirees in 2012 to 400 or more in 10 years will surely have an effect on hiring.
Personally, I believe the hiring is already starting. Going through the forum of hiring news one can see that airlines such as Spirit, US Airways, Delta, and others are starting to hire and maybe I haven't been massively attuned to hiring before, but it seems like airlines are hiring in ways we never would have seen in 2009. I hate to ramble, but this is some of the differences I see in the next 10 years over the previous 10 years.
But maybe I'm just a regional pilot full of wishful thinking.
08-31-2012, 01:40 PM
#23
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2012
Posts: 125
Originally Posted by Climbto450
Keep that wishfull thinking going, I think you made some good points. The Asian demand will fade, they are training pilots as fast as they can in many of those countries. As for in the U.S. we will see how the next couple of years go.
08-31-2012, 02:19 PM
#24
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Joined APC: Mar 2007
Position: Captain
Posts: 464
ok let's use the info that's on APC. Take Delta, American, United and USAir and add all mandatoy retirements starting in 2013 to 2023 ten years and tell me how many you come up with. It's around 17,000-18,000 mandatoy retirements in the next ten years at the four biggest majors. Is it now no, but its beginning. Then take into account a lot less primary training, 1500 hrs and an ATP, rest rules, international jobs available etc.
Why do you think Delta wants to get rid of 50 seaters? Not enough pilots to fly them in a pilot shortage! Do you think they will wait till last minute to plan for this ? No. probably 5-8 years ahead or less. Why would Delta be so easy in their new contract and take 2-3 mo to get a TA? unheard of in the negotiations realm. why? They have alterior motives that's why! what? don't know but I promise it will not benefit the delta pilot group. what the old saying if its too good to be true, its too good to be true...Is there a shortage right now? no. will there be yes! no coolaid here...
Why do you think Delta wants to get rid of 50 seaters? Not enough pilots to fly them in a pilot shortage! Do you think they will wait till last minute to plan for this ? No. probably 5-8 years ahead or less. Why would Delta be so easy in their new contract and take 2-3 mo to get a TA? unheard of in the negotiations realm. why? They have alterior motives that's why! what? don't know but I promise it will not benefit the delta pilot group. what the old saying if its too good to be true, its too good to be true...Is there a shortage right now? no. will there be yes! no coolaid here...
08-31-2012, 06:39 PM
#25
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2010
Position: window seat
Posts: 12,522
Originally Posted by legend
ok let's use the info that's on APC. Take Delta, American, United and USAir and add all mandatoy retirements starting in 2013 to 2023 ten years and tell me how many you come up with. It's around 17,000-18,000 mandatoy retirements in the next ten years at the four biggest majors. Is it now no, but its beginning. Then take into account a lot less primary training, 1500 hrs and an ATP, rest rules, international jobs available etc.
Why do you think Delta wants to get rid of 50 seaters? Not enough pilots to fly them in a pilot shortage! Do you think they will wait till last minute to plan for this ? No. probably 5-8 years ahead or less. Why would Delta be so easy in their new contract and take 2-3 mo to get a TA? unheard of in the negotiations realm. why? They have alterior motives that's why! what? don't know but I promise it will not benefit the delta pilot group. what the old saying if its too good to be true, its too good to be true...Is there a shortage right now? no. will there be yes! no coolaid here...
Why do you think Delta wants to get rid of 50 seaters? Not enough pilots to fly them in a pilot shortage! Do you think they will wait till last minute to plan for this ? No. probably 5-8 years ahead or less. Why would Delta be so easy in their new contract and take 2-3 mo to get a TA? unheard of in the negotiations realm. why? They have alterior motives that's why! what? don't know but I promise it will not benefit the delta pilot group. what the old saying if its too good to be true, its too good to be true...Is there a shortage right now? no. will there be yes! no coolaid here...
to say the least.
50 seaters suck because they suck. Right now. They are gas, gate, slot and CASM pigs, they were way over bought and insanely over paid for and bonus, many of them are old and need expensive MX. That is why DL is in a hurry to cull them.
That said, whatever "shortage" may materialize can be easilly handled with reasonable, proper additional investments in pilots to attract new talent. If we were knee deep in a massive shortage (which is really pushing it) airlines can just eliminate "first year pay" and instantly get as many pilots as they want. Any US airline hiring into a growth airline anywhere close to 6 figures the first year will have no problem attracting pilots, and even a few doing that will fuel the training pipeline like there's no tomorrow. The dream of Paris, first class, international coupled with good pay and reasonable job security projections will justify investments needed to get into the profession again regardless.
No, irregardless.
Yeah.
08-31-2012, 08:40 PM
#26
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2005
Position: M88B
Posts: 1,179
Originally Posted by gloopy
Saying the DL TA and one of managent's highest priorities, right now, is the looming massive pilot shortage is, well, a bit of a
to say the least.
50 seaters suck because they suck. Right now. They are gas, gate, slot and CASM pigs, they were way over bought and insanely over paid for and bonus, many of them are old and need expensive MX. That is why DL is in a hurry to cull them.
That said, whatever "shortage" may materialize can be easilly handled with reasonable, proper additional investments in pilots to attract new talent. If we were knee deep in a massive shortage (which is really pushing it) airlines can just eliminate "first year pay" and instantly get as many pilots as they want. Any US airline hiring into a growth airline anywhere close to 6 figures the first year will have no problem attracting pilots, and even a few doing that will fuel the training pipeline like there's no tomorrow. The dream of Paris, first class, international coupled with good pay and reasonable job security projections will justify investments needed to get into the profession again regardless.
No, irregardless.
Yeah.
to say the least.
50 seaters suck because they suck. Right now. They are gas, gate, slot and CASM pigs, they were way over bought and insanely over paid for and bonus, many of them are old and need expensive MX. That is why DL is in a hurry to cull them.
That said, whatever "shortage" may materialize can be easilly handled with reasonable, proper additional investments in pilots to attract new talent. If we were knee deep in a massive shortage (which is really pushing it) airlines can just eliminate "first year pay" and instantly get as many pilots as they want. Any US airline hiring into a growth airline anywhere close to 6 figures the first year will have no problem attracting pilots, and even a few doing that will fuel the training pipeline like there's no tomorrow. The dream of Paris, first class, international coupled with good pay and reasonable job security projections will justify investments needed to get into the profession again regardless.
No, irregardless.
Yeah.
No shortage of pilots. Just shortage of those willing right now as has been said so many times before.
09-01-2012, 04:29 AM
#27
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2007
Position: Captain
Posts: 464
I agree there is no pilot shortage now. But how can anyone argue the 17,000+ mandatory retirements in the next 10 years. Will your buddies be enough to cover that? Let's take half of that number over the next five years and you have around 8000 pilots retiring and thats about 1600 per year needed at the big four. Regionals as we know it gone in 5 years. we can debate why. The age 65 ers start small end of this year increases next year and big the years following.
09-01-2012, 07:20 AM
#28
Line Holder
Joined APC: Apr 2007
Posts: 55
Originally Posted by legend
I agree there is no pilot shortage now. But how can anyone argue the 17,000+ mandatory retirements in the next 10 years. Will your buddies be enough to cover that? Let's take half of that number over the next five years and you have around 8000 pilots retiring and thats about 1600 per year needed at the big four. Regionals as we know it gone in 5 years. we can debate why. The age 65 ers start small end of this year increases next year and big the years following.
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