PilotAnalyst

I have started hearing some rumblings from Delta Pilots and have rerun the numbers for Delta with a more reasonable Pilot/Aircraft ratio instead of the current ratio. The more reasonable ratio was taken from comparisons with United and American respecting their different fleet types and reasonable staffing levels for the different fleet types. I've been somewhat concerned about the unusually large pilot/aircraft ratio at Delta since I built the model but rationalized it away when they were hiring fairly recently(couple years ago) with the same staffing levels we see now. I hope I am wrong, but it is very possible that we may not see hiring from Delta till 2014-2015. I explain all this in more detail on the report. We won't really know the what is going on entirely until Delta starts calling for interviews. If they call pilots this next spring for interviews, that is a very good sign, if not, then they are likely overstaffed.

Delta Airlines Overstaffed Analysis | Audries Aircraft Analysis

TeddyKGB

Yes we are overstaffed. We are right sized for the busy 2013 summer and will remain at a surplus until then and until the big retirement #'s start kicking in in 2015. I don't see hiring until 2015.

Will

2015 may be off considering what Jim G. wrote on Sept. 21, 2012

One of the top ten questions I get asked is when will Delta start hiring pilots again. As of right now, we are adequately staffed for the summer of 2013. This means that unless Network decides to significantly increase our summer flying, we’re not planning on hiring until late 2013 to ramp up for flying in 2014. However, if past experience holds true, it’s unlikely that all pilots slated to retire over the next 10 years will choose to fly until age 65. Therefore, Crew Resources and Scheduling will closely monitor our staffing levels on a monthly basis to ensure we stay ahead of the retirement wave and don’t find ourselves short-staffed.

Elvis90

A lot of it depends upon the state of both the US economy and the economy in Europe. If the economy turns around here, I think Delta would take advantage of it. Likewise we have 88 Boeing 717's being added to the fleet beginning in September 2013 at 3 per month. We're gaining 100 Boeing 737-900ER's beginning in September 2013 at 2 per month that are supposed to replace older 757's and A320's; however the VP of Flight Ops said that they could be additional if economic conditions dictate.

When I was hired in 2010, the VP of flight Ops stayed that we would hire 300-600 pilots in 2011 based upon 5-7% growth in 2011...that changed to 1-3% growth based on poorer economic conditions. So the company maintains flexibility to go either way, and they tend to play it conservatively.

gloopy

I appreciate that conservative approach. I really do. But there's not going to be an "economic turnaround" here or in Europe anytime soon. Yes there could be some sugar rush highs along the way from sudden influxes of monopoly money but the debt crash after will be worse than the high feels by far, especially once a nation (US and EU in this case, as well as China and others) reaches the backside of the curve WRT the sustainability of paying it back, particularly when interest rates start rising by force (i.e. treasuries failing at auction at prevailing rates and having to be raised substantially and/or the inability to defer/"monetize" such massive debt levels while the spending...which will NOT stop no matter what, for many political reasons...hitting the real 'on the street' money supply as soon as its printed).

IOW, the present level and trajectory of this generational debt crisis puts it well outside any typical "market cycle" nonsense. There will be pain, it will last a long time and it will be severe. The good news in it all is there will be winners and losers. China is still net growth IMO but their bubble popping will have devistating consequences for them and any of their "business partners" like the US. The EU is in even bigger touble than we are and the ponzi scheme gulf airlines are already scrambling to form alliances which was considered beneath them just a handful of pages of the calendar ago. Their comical collective order book depends on massive cabotage and failure of US and EU airlines to manifest itself and IMO won't even come close to being fufilled.

There will be opportunities in the downturn for strong carriers with a comprehensive network and a solid balance sheet. How we handle that is still very much up in the air. Will we continue to shrink to profitability, thus gifting capacity relief to others? Or will we be able to compete and win as other airlines reduce and some fade away?

So far, with billion+ dollar profits since 2010 like you've mentioned, we've shrunk over 500 pilots and are still "overstaffed" because we've chosen to fund the capacity of domestic LCC's and gift capacity to AF/KLM as we reduce far faster than they have with the 3 year blank check we gave them and the west coast and everything to and from it continue to get greener and greener and greener.

I like the potential out there for DAL. There will be opportunities in the coming years and some of them will be big. But I don't like some aspects of the trend vectors we're seeing. In the end a year's difference in hiring won't make a dent in the careers of the DL pilot group as long as the total hired ends up about the same. That's the multi million dollar (career) question though.

Elvis90

OK, gloopy just made me depressed.

dragon

Gloopy,

As usual a very well thought out post. I can't disagree with any of it.

I would add, the current DAL management team has a lot of former NWA folks on it who ran a much leaner operation. They will figure out ways to maximize our productivity and like Pavlov's dogs, we'll figure out a way to work harder not smarter.

I wish I could see hiring coming, but I think the words from JG and others promising hiring later is just smoke being blown up our collective butts to help keep morale high.

I'm happy, very happy to have a job here at DAL. Until we hire, our QOL won't improve. Still trying to figure out how this last AE with openings at the top of the list didn't translate to more movement down the list.

80ktsClamp

Because this next bid is going to be a surplus.

Check Essential

I think that's correct.
The chickens are coming home to roost on that contract we just signed.
You don't give up that much in productivity and staffing without consequences.
(although I'm sure sailingfun will have an alternative explanation)

80ktsClamp

Yup. Displacements off the 767 domestic and A320. 8 757s are being parked by year end.