I have a thousand under me. If there is a merger with an ALPA airline like United; their most junior pilot (who is on furlough) is senior to me when it comes to date of hire. I'm assuming less planes & pilots after the merger. Dump the overlapping routes, park the old planes, etc. Who knows? I like my job and would like to keep it.

Otto, I'm a United pilot and I don't think that DOH is a legitimate way to integrate seniority lists. Any seniority lists. I think that it should be done by relative seniority and career expectations. IF UAL and CAL were to merge, such a policy would put me below you on the combined seniority list. And since I am near the bottom of UAL's seniority list, such a merger would likely cause me to be furloughed again. But it would, IMO, be fair.
Fortunately for me, I'll never be on any seniority integration panel representing United ALPA interests. :D

FWIW, I haven't talked to a single Delta guy who's in favor of a US Airways merger. I can't see the synergy of the deal, and I think the other creditors will see it the same way. If we merge with anyone, it's likely to be an airline with a Trans-Pacific route network. That being said, our aim is to emerge, then merge.

Predictions
 

I agree. DAL/CAL has been an on-and-off plan for years, and almost happened once or twice. Creditors would love it, and the corporate "fit" is probably as good as DAL/WAL. I'll also predict AMR/NWA and UAL/US Air. Lots of assets would have to be sold/traded to satisfy the feds, and some of them would be picked up by SWA etc. We might end up with a semi-rational air transportation system, at least for a while.

I think you'll find those very hard to define, particularly the 'career expectations' part. The acquiring pilots are quite likely to have a considerable difference of opinions over these two terms as compared to those being acquired.

I've lived through a 'career expectations' deal and the result was highly subjective, emotional, and ugly. In the end, the only thing for certain was that 'might made right'.

The laughable part about the 'career expectation' concept is that one only has to remember who the two other airlines in deep trouble in 2001 were.

America West and USAir.

So who has the expectations now?

Relative seniority is fairly easy to apply. Same/similar equipment, same/similar seniority on that equipment.

Yes, career expectations is harder to define. I'd say based on a particular snapshot in time, factoring in aircraft orders, retirements, etc. Highly subjective. Perhaps requires significantly less weighting than relative seniority.
If a merge between CAL & UAL occurred, I think that CAL pilots would be penalized if you only went on relative seniority. At this particular snapshot in time, a CAL pilot's career expectations should be significantly higher than a UAL pilot. And I'm a UAL pilot.

As for AmWest & USAirways, USAirways was on death's doorstep. I don't want to open that can of worms, but I don't think that career expectations at USAirways looked any better than at Pan Am in the late 80s.

With most airline mergers, both sides will have the opportunity to plead their case in front of an arbitrator. In the end, most everyone will be unhappy with the decision.

Unfortunately, too true.

It will be hard to find a junior CAL pilot who is willing to take a seniority hit in order to accomodate a UAL pilot's career expectations.

Lets see...TPG is behind Parker. TPG just made an offer to buy Quantas. Looks like you've hit the nail on the head!

Gotta agree with you there. Add in the "We bought you, you would have been unemployed" Tokko and it becomes manifestly evident that DOH is the only fair way to merge two seniority lists. Put up fences, if you must, but the bottom line should always be DOH.

Absolutely!

This entire subject puts the whammy to the idealistic notion of brotherhood/sisterhood union kumbaya-ness. All said and done...it's dog eat dog.