Would AA's lower 1st year pay keep you away?
 

In response to another thread, I'd like to poll everyone here: AA's 1st year pay is $40/hr, less than DL and UA who are in the $60s. Would that keep you away from AA if you had offers from all 3?

Also, keep in mind that AA will most likely come up to DL/UA pay with the new JCBA, just like DL and UA did after exiting BK and merging.

Poll takes into consideration the fact that all 3 airlines are very similar with regards to retirements, career choices, flying, etc.

With the most retirements coming up at AA/US, you will make more in your career with a faster upgrade.

Don't miss the forest for the trees...

http://i.imgur.com/IDH6rsX.jpg

I usually tell people there is no way to give advice on what carrier to choose, because there are too many variables to take into account, over the length of a career, so even attrition is no predictor of the quality of a craeer.

That being said, if your personal calculations tell you it's smartest to go to UsAmerican, but you're spending more than about a minute dwelling on first year pay, then there is something seriously flawed with your logic.

Or you're over 60.

I would take an offer of employment from any of those three airlines, but would definitely choose DL/UA for that very reason. I have a wife and multiple young kids. Putting food on the table for that first year would be tough with AA. You can criticize all you want for failing to plan financially, etc, but I choose to have my wife stay at home, and that wouldn't be a possiblity with first year AA pay. Sure, a year isn't that long, but the debt that I would incur would last a lot longer than that.
I think it is only a matter of time before they are going to have to bump that first year pay up to match their competitors. It is a buyers (hirers) market right now, but in a couple of years, I suspect that will not be the case.

CAL had thousands of applications when they paid new-hires $29.00/hr with no health insurance (2004-2008) for the first 6 months. I am sure plenty of people will apply

Wait..... so you are saying pilots care to actually get paid? Just thought being a professional airline pilot was a sickness:D

According to APC there are 14,759 pilots at AA/US combined. Based on this chart (assuming zero growth, hiring only for attrition and no early retirements), 35% of the pilots are retiring in the next 10 years.
So, one hired today would be at the 65% percentile roughly a decade from now. Assuming one upgrades at the 50% mark...you're still not making Captain within 10 years.

*I'm sure there will be some growth, medicals and early retirees...

All too true. And during the 2007 timeframe, UAL/NWA/USAir had a pretty crappy 1st year rate as well. STILL had PLENTY of apps.

And it's not like 2nd year was some stellar amount EITHER. DAL/FedEx/SW were better, but not really that much better. Pretty substantial cut regardless if coming from RJ CA or mil O-3/O-4 rate.

So to answer the poll, NO, it wouldn't stop me.

US had a steeper retirement curve compared to AA, UA, and DL. With the absorption of them by AA, the curve very closely approximates UA and DL, so career path would be pretty similar.

Just depends on who calls you first, IMO. And if you have a choice, which culture you would prefer to be a part of.