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Bottom of SWA or bottom of new American?

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Bottom of SWA or bottom of new American?

Old 11-27-2013, 01:03 PM
  #181  
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Originally Posted by Flys135s View Post
I just turned my crazy 8-Ball upside down and it said "maybe"
With this career, they need to update that to The Departed's Dignam style of "maybe".
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Old 11-27-2013, 02:36 PM
  #182  
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Originally Posted by hjs1971 View Post
I've said it before...if you are think AA's pay rates of 2018 are 100% guaranteed to be there in 4 yrs, then you haven't followed this industry very long (why does everyone assume SWA is getting no pay raises in the next 4yrs and is only hiring 250 this year??? I can't predict the future but I bet they get a pay raise or two before 2018 and I bet they hire more than just the 250 this yr). Do the math on the first 4 yrs of pay on a 737, I bet SWA pays significantly more. What if SWA has a base you can drive to and AA doesn't? There are more "ifs" associated with AA (if this happens and if this happens then I will be the highest paid 777CA 10 yrs after being hired). I think with SWA, you have alot less "ifs"...sure you may only be a 737FO in 15 yrs but for some, that's ok if you know it's with a company that has shown nothing but stability for 30 yrs, AA can't say that. If you think Doug Parker is a better CEO than Gary Kelly, AA is the place for you. I agree, the stagnation at SWA will probably be much worse than the "projected lack of stagnation" at AA but my crystal ball says go with whoever hires you first, has a base you can drive to, and who has shown some stability. If you must fly widebodies internationally, AA is your only choice. Choose wisely and not based of the advice of people on the internet. Let us know how the choice worked out 30 yrs from now...
Exactly. In the end it comes down to what works for each individual and their unique situation they may be in. Generally speaking though, SWA doesn't sound enticing for new hires. Its a great deal if you already have 5+ years at SWA, but an existing SWA pilot is getting a much different experience than a new hire in 2014. And yes, 250 is probably all they will hire, because of the AirTran pilots are coming over 'sans' their 717 fleet. SWA will have a nice cushion of pilots for a while unless their growth plans are more ambitious, at which point I would say that puts them at the same risk level as AA.

At the same time if you ask an current AA pilot (pre-2000 hire), they'll tell you to run away as fast as you can and stay away from AA forever. They've had a raw deal, and I am very sympathetic to the horrible treatment and concessions they've had to endure. But AA new hires in 2014 are going to have a vastly more positive experience once theyre off first year pay. Its going to be sunshine and rainbows for them for at least 5 years.
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Old 11-27-2013, 03:26 PM
  #183  
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Originally Posted by ghilis101 View Post
Exactly. In the end it comes down to what works for each individual and their unique situation they may be in. Generally speaking though, SWA doesn't sound enticing for new hires. Its a great deal if you already have 5+ years at SWA, but an existing SWA pilot is getting a much different experience than a new hire in 2014. And yes, 250 is probably all they will hire, because of the AirTran pilots are coming over 'sans' their 717 fleet. SWA will have a nice cushion of pilots for a while unless their growth plans are more ambitious, at which point I would say that puts them at the same risk level as AA.

At the same time if you ask an current AA pilot (pre-2000 hire), they'll tell you to run away as fast as you can and stay away from AA forever. They've had a raw deal, and I am very sympathetic to the horrible treatment and concessions they've had to endure. But AA new hires in 2014 are going to have a vastly more positive experience once theyre off first year pay. Its going to be sunshine and rainbows for them for at least 5 years.


I hate to admit it, but I have been in (or associated with) this industry for too long. Sunshine and rainbows? Five years from now we will see. With the current hiring situation even I would have to agree that AA looks better. I might even make the decision to go there instead of SWA. The same decision was being made by my fellow aviators in The late 80's and fortunately for me I wanted to be at SWA. Was I naive? Probably, but it worked out a lot better for me than those who went to AA, DAL, et al who were furloughed.

There are no guarantees in this industry so please spare us all the "I know what I am talking about" arguments.

As usual many of the airlines are planning on the wonderful revenue continuing to support their future business plan. Promises and contracts are made based on events that may or not happen. Even SWA better get ready for the next economic downturn. Somehow when the money and passengers dry up everybody wonders why. It will happen and planning for it is wise. Good luck with those who have a decision to make. Just saying!

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Old 11-27-2013, 11:53 PM
  #184  
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Originally Posted by OscartheGrouch View Post

I hate to admit it, but I have been in (or associated with) this industry for too long. Sunshine and rainbows? Five years from now we will see. With the current hiring situation even I would have to agree that AA looks better. I might even make the decision to go there instead of SWA. The same decision was being made by my fellow aviators in The late 80's and fortunately for me I wanted to be at SWA. Was I naive? Probably, but it worked out a lot better for me than those who went to AA, DAL, et al who were furloughed.

There are no guarantees in this industry so please spare us all the "I know what I am talking about" arguments.

As usual many of the airlines are planning on the wonderful revenue continuing to support their future business plan. Promises and contracts are made based on events that may or not happen. Even SWA better get ready for the next economic downturn. Somehow when the money and passengers dry up everybody wonders why. It will happen and planning for it is wise. Good luck with those who have a decision to make. Just saying!

The Oscar
Indeed its a whole lot of speculation, but we all still have to do our homework. When you went to SWA, was it a mature company with no movement and no upgrade in sight? My guess is when you went there things were a little different. None of us can predict the future, but we can make educated decisions. It is a fact that AA/US will have to retire a a massive chunk of their seniority list in the next decade. That's a known quantity, even if the retirement age goes up. They will be forced to hire replacement pilots by the thousands. Ok that last statement there, you can say that's speculation. But you can either believe that, or believe that AA will shrink and die. I choose the optimistic scenario. This doesn't mean SWA isn't also going to do well; I believe it will continue to prosper. This discussion is about a new hire decision, not which airline is going under (neither will).

Again, your perspective at SWA is going to be different from a new hire. Youre a senior CA there, you've got a great deal. A new hire will never be able to come to SWA and do what you did. If they come with the mindset that they can be the next CA Oscar Grouch, they will be setting themselves up for disappointment.

Last edited by ghilis101; 11-28-2013 at 12:06 AM.
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Old 11-28-2013, 09:58 AM
  #185  
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Oscar - what was your expected upgrade time when you got hired? Three years? Five?

Good points by Oscar and Ghillis. The decision is based on a snapshot of today looking forward. Early part of the bow wave is key. The first years will always stink but after a couple of years the change at AA, and DL/UA shortly, will be dramatic.
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Old 11-28-2013, 05:42 PM
  #186  
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I have preached for years that what you buddy did who got hired here 10 years ago many times has nothing to do with what you will see in your career here.

The place to be in 2004 may not be the place to be in 2014. FedEx and SWA were THE places to be not long ago. Guys hired there in 1997-98 were captains in 5-6 years. Run the numbers on an 05 hire at FedEx and look how long they are from WB captain, much less NB captain....its not pretty.

Now--I work at FDX and love it. SWA has treated their pilots well over the years. I'm not bashing either company. But I would remind you that the airline of choice in 1998 was not FedEx nor SWA for most folks...it was AA, Delta, and United. Today I have guys who are sitting on apps saying "I only want to work with FedEx..., not interested in other companies..." I understand having a favorite, but at the same time having the vision to try to see where companies might be in 10 years vice what your buddies did 10 years ago might actually take you farther down the road...

Biggest poker player in the game? The guys who got hired at US Air in 2012/2013. I think we are all going to be admiring their luck/guts in about 5 years as we hear them flying transcons in brand new 321s....
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Old 11-29-2013, 06:29 AM
  #187  
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Originally Posted by Albief15 View Post
I have preached for years that what you buddy did who got hired here 10 years ago many times has nothing to do with what you will see in your career here.

The place to be in 2004 may not be the place to be in 2014. FedEx and SWA were THE places to be not long ago. Guys hired there in 1997-98 were captains in 5-6 years. Run the numbers on an 05 hire at FedEx and look how long they are from WB captain, much less NB captain....its not pretty.

Now--I work at FDX and love it. SWA has treated their pilots well over the years. I'm not bashing either company. But I would remind you that the airline of choice in 1998 was not FedEx nor SWA for most folks...it was AA, Delta, and United. Today I have guys who are sitting on apps saying "I only want to work with FedEx..., not interested in other companies..." I understand having a favorite, but at the same time having the vision to try to see where companies might be in 10 years vice what your buddies did 10 years ago might actually take you farther down the road...

Biggest poker player in the game? The guys who got hired at US Air in 2012/2013. I think we are all going to be admiring their luck/guts in about 5 years as we hear them flying transcons in brand new 321s....
Albie - exactly.

Years ago telling Captain "wow, you had a nice career". "Ask me when I'm done..."

Another Captain explaining all the airline job offers he had - Braniff, Eastern, American, etc. Me - "Good move picking AA." Him - "Braniff's class was Friday, AA's was Monday, Eastern was later. I went with AA figuring I could go to Braniff on Friday if needed. Was kicking myself when I was an engineer and my buddy's went to Braniff and were FO's looking at upgrading to Captain."
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Old 11-29-2013, 03:35 PM
  #188  
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I've said it before...if you are think AA's pay rates of 2018 are 100% guaranteed to be there in 4 yrs, then you haven't followed this industry very long (why does everyone assume SWA is getting no pay raises in the next 4yrs and is only hiring 250 this year??? I can't predict the future but I bet they get a pay raise or two before 2018 and I bet they hire more than just the 250 this yr). Do the math on the first 4 yrs of pay on a 737, I bet SWA pays significantly more. What if SWA has a base you can drive to and AA doesn't? There are more "ifs" associated with AA (if this happens and if this happens then I will be the highest paid 777CA 10 yrs after being hired). I think with SWA, you have alot less "ifs"...sure you may only be a 737FO in 15 yrs but for some, that's ok if you know it's with a company that has shown nothing but stability for 30 yrs, AA can't say that. If you think Doug Parker is a better CEO than Gary Kelly, AA is the place for you. I agree, the stagnation at SWA will probably be much worse than the "projected lack of stagnation" at AA but my crystal ball says go with whoever hires you first, has a base you can drive to, and who has shown some stability. If you must fly widebodies internationally, AA is your only choice. Choose wisely and not based of the advice of people on the internet. Let us know how the choice worked out 30 yrs from now...
I'm not disagreeing with most of what you wrote, but if you are a mil guy (and I once was), 96% of our daydreaming was pay - rolling in bushels of greenbacks for doing really no work - and 4% was "that other stuff".

There are probably well over 1,000 FO's at AA who could be a captain and make more $$ than they do now. They don't. They camp out where they are, because they like it there.

Money is nice. But I'll happily leave 20% or more on the table to avoid domestic narrowbody CA reserve, and instead fly 9 days a month.

As someone looking to get hired, a non-121 aviator must carefully examine so much more than pay tables. You have, and you mention critical things like commuting, and the style and type of flying you want to do... but I wanted to toss this out there as food for thought.
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Old 11-29-2013, 07:38 PM
  #189  
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Forever - just checked. 1300+ could be n/b CA. There's over 800 FO's that could be 767 CA's! 56 could be 777 CA's.

13% between 1000-2000 are 777 FO's.
21% between 2000-3000 are 777 FO's. 767 and a handful of n/b FO's bring the total up to 25%.

777 FO is the same seniority as n/b CA. Obviously 767/777 CA is valued significantly higher than n/b CA.

There's a significant value to being able to fly w/b long haul trips. How guys bid proves that.
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Old 11-30-2013, 06:53 AM
  #190  
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There's a significant value to being able to fly w/b long haul trips. How guys bid proves that.[/QUOTE]

Yea, It's called money. That's what it appears guys bid for. Look around customs at the foreign crews you see. They are YOUNG! At European carriers that have a longevity rather than equipment based pay scales you will find the old (senior) guys flying the narrow bodies around Europe. Easier on the body. Everyone has their own likes and dislikes. For me, if the money were the same I'd rather fly 5 short domestic legs a day than one long international leg. Heck, taking off and landing is still fun, the rest is pretty damn boring. As for the layovers, I find myself in some really great places in Europe thinking that I would be enjoying it a lot more if I didn't feel like I have the frigging flu and I'm not even sick. Just tired!
I'd be quite happy to never fly another international trip and save the foreign travel for vacation.
CG
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