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Industry Growth and Projected USAF Retention

Old 12-19-2006, 06:07 PM
  #21  
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Originally Posted by wally24 View Post
Maybe I was unclear, 2 years UPT + 10 Years active duty= 12 years total. Still seems very long though.
UPT isn't 2 years long.
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Old 12-19-2006, 08:16 PM
  #22  
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"A USAF LTC from Personnel attended the Sep Air Inc conference in DC."

Another rocket scientist from AFPC (MPC for us older types) who is there to "gather" info to be used in 5-8 years when the AF is drastically short of aviators. If you stay around long enough (20th year here combined USAF/USAFR rated and non-rated service) you will see the pendulum swing back and forth. In 1989 there were no UPT slots to be had on active duty, the pilot production went from 1500 to 500 pilots, two UPT bases closed (Willie and Reese), then the pendulum swung to increased production, now we are paying folks big $ to leave.....hmmm a swinging we will go.....




=====================
TALKING PAPER ON AIR INC. AIRLINE PILOT CAREER SEMINAR TRIP REPORT

1. Purpose of the TDY: Attend Air Inc Airline Pilot Career Seminar to gather information on airline hiring projections in order to help develop rated force retention policies.

2. Date, Location, A1P Attendees: Saturday, 23 Sep 2006; Hyatt Regency Hotel in Reston, VA; Attended by 3. Attendees Org/Level: Other attendees were prospective airline pilots and various airline industry representatives; no other official military representation 4.

Results/Outcomes:
* Day-long presentation was opened by Mr. Kit Darby, President of Air Inc, the recognized standard-bearer in airline industry hiring consultation
* Mr. Darby’s presentation began with a 90-minute overview of short- and long-term airline health forecasts followed by detailed lectures on airline hiring advice
* Hard copy of all presentations can be found in the AF/A1PPR office
* World air traffic is expected to grow at 4.9% annually and U.S. air traffic is expected to grow 3.2% annually through 2025
* A fundamental shift in the airline industry toward the low-cost carrier model and regional jet service has driven average aircraft load factors to record highs of 83% that in turn have caused U.S. airlines to realize profits for the first time since 911
* Total U.S airline profits for 2006 expected at $3B and climbing to $8+B by 2010
* Under the low-cost airline business model airlines are also flying each aircraft longer hours (8% more) which translates into a higher aircrew/aircraft ratio
* The world airline fleet size will more than double between 2006 and 2025. The U.S. fleet alone will grow from 5,915 commercial aircraft to 9,453 aircraft86% of deliveries will be regional jets and single-aisle aircraft (B737-type)
* The world air cargo industry is expected to grow at a staggering 6.1% annually through 2025another segment which will double its fleet size to 3,800 aircraft
* International aviation rules are expected to relax mandatory retirement requirements from age 60 to 65; the U.S. may follow suit, however, this is not expected to have a significant impact on overall hiring requirements, as many pilots may not elect to stay until age 65
* Despite recent news about airline bankruptcies and pension fund collapses, total compensation packages remain strong, especially for new hires acquired under the new employee/employer combined contribution structures; a 30-yr career UPS pilot can still expect to earn over $10M, the average major airline pilot will earn well over $6M
* Airline pilot civilian/military relative percentages expected to remain at approx 50%/50%
* Air Inc is forecasting 8,000 10,000 new commercial pilot hires per year through 2010
* In 2006 the majors will hire 2,500, the nationals 2,600, the jet operators 3,500, non-jets 2,000, and the fractionals 1,000 for a total of 11,200 new hires in 1 yr
* None of the above predictions account for war, terrorism, or a major rise in energy prices; they do incorporate validated world GDP and economic growth models

5. Recommended A1P Staff Action:
* Recognize that the airline industry has fully recovered from 911 and already today presents a credible and growing "pull" force upon the Air Force, Air Force Reserve, and Air National Guard’s pilot resources
* Airline needs will reduce Air Reserve and Air National Guard manning that will in turn invite active duty pilots to leave the Air Force and take their place;
* Air Force Reserve and Air National Guard are concerned about FY10 and FY11 "drought" years when few active duty pilots will be eligible for separation due to transition from 8-yr SUPT ADSC to a 10-yr ADSC
* Five years of high GWOT (Global War On Terrorism for you civilian types) tempo is creating a "push" from the Air Force
* The Air Force must monitor the situation closely and be prepared to exercise conventional (ACP-style) (ACP is Aviation Continuation Pay.. which is a bonus every year in addition to your salary... big money usually)and unconventional retention mechanisms to meet warfighting mission requirements
* Air Force should whole-heartedly support the FY09 "ACP Cap Authority Increase" ULB initiative to raise the legal annual ACP authority from $25K to $40K/yr
* Aggressively work to restore full FY08-09 ACP funding after being directed to absorb a 10% officer bonus program funding cut; net affect of this cut on ACP would be to reduce new contract offer values by 20% beginning in FY08 ($25K/yr reduced to $20K/yr)
* On-going and fluid force shaping initiatives may ultimately reduce overall pilot needs in FY10 compared to the Air Force’s current rated force growth projections; present retention policy models are based on only a 40% retention rate prediction for FY10[/QUOTE]
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Old 12-19-2006, 08:27 PM
  #23  
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Point 1:
"A USAF LTC from Personnel attended the Sep Air Inc conference in DC."

Another rocket scientist from AFPC (MPC for us older types) who is there to "gather" info to be used in 5-8 years when the AF is drastically short of aviators (and the Lt Col is long retired). If you stay around long enough (20th year here combined USAF/USAFR rated and non-rated service) you will see the pendulum swing back and forth. In 1989 there were no UPT slots to be had on active duty, the pilot production went from 1500 to 500 pilots, two UPT bases closed (Willie and Reese), then the pendulum swung to increased production, now we are paying folks big $ to leave.....hmmm a swinging we will go.....as in the pendulum. Pay attention you youngsters....it will swing again. Just be prepared to take advantage of it based upon your situation.




Point 2:

"TALKING PAPER ON AIR INC. AIRLINE PILOT CAREER SEMINAR TRIP REPORT

* Day-long presentation was opened by Mr. Kit Darby, President of Air Inc, the recognized standard-bearer in airline industry hiring consultation"

Once again, my two cents. Kit Darby is a lot of hot air. "Blah blah blah, I have interviewed at 10, 12, is it 15 airlines" now Kit. Oh well, when UAL was king of the hill in '97-'00 Kit was the Font of Knowledge. He was known to say that one would be better off as an FO at a regional carrier than a 727 FE about to upgrade to 727 FO with lots of jet time from USAF/USAFR heavy squadron. Bad advice Kit.......
Fast forward 10 years, UAL not the king of the heap again. I have 8000+ hours, USAF command wings, solid job as a 757 FO at your friendly brown cargo hauler, hmmmm guess my way worked out ok in the end.
Lessons learned....listen to your gut and dont take the words of a " recognized standard bearer" for the only one true path to a good career in this business.
Lou Smith from FAPA days has lots more integrity than Mr. Darby ever thought about having in my opinion. Just my two cents........YMMV.
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Old 12-20-2006, 05:50 AM
  #24  
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Originally Posted by wally24 View Post
Does anyone find the 12 year contract excessive for a pilot? I have been looking into it pretty seriously, but the contract is pretty intimidating considering my age. I want to fly, but it seems that some of you are happy you are out and not flying for the air force any more. Is the guard really the best way to go?

Maybe I was unclear, 2 years UPT + 10 Years active duty= 12 years total. Still seems very long though.
It's true then, guys have gotten much stupider these last few years, if they are taking two years to finish UPT. I sort of figured that out a while ago, just by observing the new hires. Seriously, unless they've change the hell out of UPT, it's still right about 52 weeks.

It seems to me that even before you've signed up for military service, you're dissing it. My suggestion to you is to NOT join the military. After all, it requires maturity, perseverance, and a willingness to endure untold hardships. Maybe you could become a senator or congressmen and have a hand in changing the 12 year commitment that the Air Force currently has. Then, you could join, let them spend a million dollars on you, while you learn to fly, while all the time knowing you're only in it for your log book.

As far as the Air Guard is concerned, that too has a commitment. As well, you would be competing with guys just off active duty, with 2 or 3 thousand hours of jet time. Guard slots are very valuable and most Guard units tend to hire someone with flying experience, and today many candidates are combat rated in the units aircraft. While it's true that Guard units do send guys (and gals) away to UPT, the vast majority of these folks had enlisted in the Guard previously. It's one of the ways that a unit shows that it values its enlisted members, and is a big selling point to enlistees, and as such, each opening is hotly sought after. Again, why would they give that slot to an outsider?

I'd recommend that you get your licenses and then spend time instructing in light aircraft to build your time, then getting hired at some low paying flight job, with the hopes of building enough time to get an interview with a major airline. That should take you, oh, maybe 6 years.

Your comment, "I want to fly, but it seems that some of you are happy you are out and not flying for the air force any more." suggests that you've not done enough research in the matter. There are always guys who are either happy or not, anywhere. A few years ago (pre-9/11) we had captains at FedEx telling new hires to "get out and get on with a real airline." These were captains, making a lot of money, not working all that hard, and still being unhappy.

At any rate, good luck with whatever you decide to do. There are shortcomings with everything and it is indeed a tough decision. But I can honestly say that with 3500 hours of jet fighter time, I never once disliked what I was doing. You might surprise yourself.
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Old 12-20-2006, 08:10 AM
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Jetjok-

Your comments are fair enough, but I don't think I am that stupid. I have done the research and I wrote that UPT was 2 years. I should have been more direct UPT 1 Year, then depending on what air frame you get, 6 to 10 months more, plus commissioning comes close to 2 years. I am not trying to "diss" military service, I highly respect it and respect any advice regarding military service.

Believe me I know how valuable a UPT slot is, but to say "why would they give a slot to an outsider", most units I have applied to say they hire the most qualified applicant, regardless of their background. Every guard unit seems to be different, but at all the interviews, they always say it is the best deal around, "I would not have done active duty if I knew about the guard."

I know I am offending alot of people by posting some of those comments, so I apoligize in advance. I am just trying to make the best educated decision.
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Old 12-20-2006, 01:47 PM
  #26  
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Sure but your commitment to the USAF starts AFTER UPT not a year after UPT.

I would also say that some people love the military for the same reasons that some people hate it. I personally enjoyed the deployments...some more than others...but if you join the military for the cush conditions you're looking in the wrong area.

The military will give you a fantastic flying experience, much broader and varied than you can typically get in the civilian world. It will give you a decent wage, and you get to work with a bunch of (for the most part) great motivated people.

If you don't have a bit of a taste for the adventureous, you should probably skip it or you'll end up bitter after a couple of "bad deal" deployments.

On the other hand, some of the best deployments I've been on have been to shiite-holes.
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Old 12-20-2006, 02:02 PM
  #27  
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Originally Posted by CE750 View Post
I flew for Swift Aviation, owned by Jerry Moyes, the founder and majority share holder of Swift Trucking, the single largest trucking company in the world. He told me the single reason he didn't get into air freight/cargo is that he didn't want to step on the toes of Fedex and UPS, both of whom are HUGE clients of his.. The Barriers to entry are indeed VERY high.

The future for growth in jobs lies in ACMI and this is why ACMI pilots may need to re-focus their efforts from "Getting hired at UPS or Fedex" to getting their pay/QOL up close to par with the later.

I totally agree. I cannot believe anyone would take a recall to a legacy or apply to Delta/CAL over World Airways, Atlas and others.
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Old 12-20-2006, 02:10 PM
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Originally Posted by codycm View Post
I whole heartly agree with TankerDriver. I am at the 10yr point and leaving the Air Force with the "Voluntary Separation Pay" program. The Air Force is paying me a lot of money to leave (close to 2 years pay). I do believe they are going to have retention problems in the future and they don't see it now. As my squadron commander said, "There is a 2x4 swinging that the Air Force doesn't see. It is going to hit them square in the face in the next year or two."

As for the desk job, that is so true. THis is the only reason I am leaving. It has nothing to do with how long I am gone. I think anybody that flies airplanes is going to be gone 180+ days a year, just a fact of flying life. I am leaving because I want to fly airplanes. If you fly airplanes in the Air Force you don't get promoted. If you don't get promoted past Major, you could be setting yourself up to get cut right before retirement. The Air Force hasn't done that much in the past, but with them paying people to get out, I can see this being a real problem in the future. If you want an AF retirement, you probably should at least make Lt Col to be safe. The only way to do this is to do the desk jobs. If you love flying as much as I do, then you need to depart and fly for the commercial industry. If you like the military side of flying, then you can get a part-time job with the Guard/Reserves.

The Air Force does need leaders though. I respect the guys that want to do that job and enjoy it. To each their own.

I disagree. I'm gone less than 5 days a month for UPS. I know capts here who have less than 3000 hours in the last 15 years
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Old 12-20-2006, 03:36 PM
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UPT takes 13 months as long as you don't have an breaks in training. I was on "casual status" for 6 months as a 2Lt waiting to start UPT, so from commissioning to getting my wings, it was about 19 months. As far as I know, I believe the commitment is 8 years right now. It was 10 (and it was 8 sometime before that). It goes back and forth. After you get your wings, you go off to combat/water survival schools and then to your weapon system training (ie: KC-135, F-16, B-52, etc...). This training varies, but for the KC-135, it's about 3 1/2 months. For an F-16, I believe it's more like 8 months. Fighter guys have an additional training called IFF (Intro to Fighter Fundamentals), which is about 4 months. This usually comes after survival school. So, as you can see, the fighters guys/gals obviously go through more training than most, if not all of the heavy airframes. I was already back from my first deployment to the desert when some of the UPT classmates I had in the fighter program were just finishing their weapon system training and going to their first operational unit.

Deploying really wasn't an issue for me either, but then again, I definitely didn't get hammered as much as others did. I was gone about 160 days last year. I knew some that were easily 240+. I didn't really mind deploying because when I was deployed, all I did was fly my rearend off. On my days off, I went to the pool, the movie theator, the gym, etc... I was in what some would call a "shiite hole", but for the most part, we had it good there compared to where some people are in this war (ie, Bahgdad). When I was deployed, I got to do the job I came in to do. When I was home, I sat behind a desk. I've said it before and I'll say it again, active duty Air Force (and probably active duty anything), is not just a flying job. When you're not flying, most pilots have a desk job. You're not home half the month playing golf or whatever it is you like to do on your time off. There is plenty of paperwork and disorganization in the military to keep you well busy while you're not flying. For some, their desk job takes priority over the flying and they fly very little. They struggle to remain current. This probably isn't as much of an issue in the fighter world, but in the tanker, it was common place, at least where I came from. Many people don't realize this when they sign the dotted line. The recruiters do a good job of hanging lots of posters on the walls of F-16's dropping bombs, but they don't hang any posters on the wall showing that same pilot sitting behind a desk as the squadron scheduler with his Ops officer screaming at him every 10 minutes (ok, maybe that's an exaggeration).

Last edited by TankerDriver; 12-20-2006 at 03:42 PM.
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Old 12-20-2006, 04:28 PM
  #30  
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They will do the studies.

Then they will try to make a silk purse out the sow's ear they have to offer. Usually by telling you how fortunate you are to be there.

But it will be all about long commitments and bookoo cash to make you sign. The only questions are how long to make the commitments and how much cash to offer.

Initiatives like 4 years at a base instead of 2.5 to 3 may come and go. Don't bet on it being about saving money. If it was, they would have done it long ago. Probably has something to do with making commitments layer on each other. It was a major complaint on retention surveys so maybe someone actually took their head out of their butt and changed it. It's about time.

But in the end, after you sign the contract, your butt is their's. And that's how they like it.


Same song, it just gets digitally remastered every 6-8 years by the newest "wonderkids" trying to get promoted. All under the guise of being good "Leaders".

Last edited by Gunter; 12-20-2006 at 04:45 PM.
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