Holding pattern on Delta
 

Let me throw this out there to get the board's feedback.

I'm in a holding pattern on Delta.

Let me explain. These are some possible scenarios and concerns that I see from best to worst: (you know us pilots and scenarios)

1- Delta emerges as a stand alone carrier and succeeds. (A la Continental.) This is the most desired situation. I believe it is possible. However, I don't necessarily have confidence in Gerry nor the Board. I have asked some Delta people if they trust Gerry. I get mixed responses. Looking at the past performance of the leadership team (Gerry included), the possibility for failure could be just one more mistake away. I hate to say that, but I read and hear it in Gerry's messages. Delta is lacking someone with founder C.E. Woolman's character and integrity. Mainly, integrity. I think the trust needs to be restored from the top to the front line. It is too early for me to discern if that is possible with this leadership team.

2- Merger and furlough: IF and a big IF there is a merger, the bottom guys risk being on the street. I see it a bit irresponsible at this time to risk my current (modest and secure) living for a chance at a better and more fruitful living. When I look at the risks and benefits of getting hired at Delta right now, the risks seem large to me.

3- Liquidation of Delta. (Everyone is screwed.) I do not think the possibility for this scenarios is very likely. However, it still exists. I'm rather secure where I am for the time being to maintain a job flying. To be honest, I cannot afford to be a new hire F/O anywhere for more than two years without major change. Let alone at someplace that would hire after a whole airline worth of pilots is on the job search.

Alright, y'all... go for it.

If the geography is good for you, either scenario 1) or 2) would probably be tenable...any furloughed airline pilot can get some sort of work making a decent income. Sales, real-estate, and construction have low entry-barriers even if you have no specific non-aviation skills.

I suspect that US Airways would manage a merger so as to avoid furloughs...they are going to lose a SH*LOAD of legacy USA pilots in the near future (age 60) and will need the bodies. Even age 65 won't change this too much.

Future
 

If only we all had a crystal ball.:rolleyes: The future most likely will be something you never thought of.

SkyHigh

I think that the USAir scenario ( which is looking less likely as time passes) would be a worst case for the Delta pilot group, as well as for the combined airline. My guess is that redundancies would cause furloughs numbering near 1000 (despite what Parker says). Sure, the USAir guys would be retiring in a few years, but by then, the whole airline might be gone.

It seems to me that the USAir/ Delta combination, after the necessary asset divesture, would have a route structure very similar to Delta's route network now, but would have a debt burden greater than the one that pushed Delta into bankruptcy. I don't think that the airline would survive the next recession. Fortunately, it appears that the creditors are beginning to realize this.

More likely, we will see some sort of merger after emerging from bankruptcy. I don't expect rapid growth in the coming years, but anyone getting hired now should have a stable job.

I actually agree with Skyhigh- despite our best guesses, the future in this industry is anybody's guess.

[quote=Woxof;103776]Let me throw this out there to get the board's feedback.

I'm in a holding pattern on Delta.

[quote]

Dude, when God Made C.E. Woolman, he broke the mold. He came close with Herb Keller and Fred Smith, but they too are great men who had a LOT invested with the success of their companies. IMO, Delta will emerge alone, strong, and will be the NEW power player acquiring other smaller companies and more aircraft ... probably like Southwest snatching up every used 73 and 73 production slot they can find.

I'm not privy to insider information, but rather the same tainted public information that you are. Delta will have roughly the same debt load as US Air which will be 1/3rd that of AMR and United. If you have an inside to Delta TAKE IT. Run, don't walk. IF your neighbor will walk your stuff in let 'em. IMO, they are going to hire WELL more than the rumored 200. You heard it hear first, news and film @ 11. I'd be more afraid to take a job at a company with 20B in debt with the "old school" business model. Painful cuts are still ahead for a lot of airlines, but Delta is not one of them. I do believe we are on the cusp of a new age in aviation again ... that is age 65 does not pass. Good luck, all.

Tom

assuming they would even take you:rolleyes:

Wanna hear the latest rumor? Jim Whitehurst was on a shuttle flight yesterday, came to the cockpit and was salivating about B6, (still don`t know why they are called that), their EMB jets, their facilities in BOS, etc. Said it(B6) would be a nice aquisition.(Non ALPA, staple method). We are living in interesting times.

Delta won't liquidate; it is too valuable. The creditors wouldn't even get .02 cents on the dollar.

Ahhhhh, nothing as soothing as the voice of reason.

Tom

hey..thats my bike 2007 KTM525exc...awesome dual-sport...

That is the only way they can get the 190's the need. Would be a great move for all of those guys at B6.

OK...what is B6??

I had a B4 bag in the USAF

Is B6 JetBlue?

I had heard the same thing, from a friend who was on a flight with Gerry-ya know one of those....

But I was told that JetBlue would be a good aquisition, after exiting bankruptcy, because of the JFK terminal and also the fact that they are a nonunion work force.

Who knows what will happen, I just hope that Delta can emerge as a stand alone! I bypassed a couple of months ago and will not even consider going back until the picture becomes clearer.

JJ

Sweet dude! I have a 2001 KTM 640 LC4, too bad I never get a chance to ride it. :(

The JetBlue rumor is rampant at Delta right now, usually in the form of " I know a guy who knows a guy who had Gerry Grinstein/ Jim Whitehurst/ Joe Kolshack (pick one) on the jump seat, who said we want to buy JB after we come out of BK. I'll believe it when I see it.

It would be nice to get out of that tenement of a terminal at JFK, though.

Delta has to merge now the consolidation has started Colgan/Pinnacle

Got my first airline job in 1962 working at that terminal for PAA. Summer job between semesters. It was one heck of a terminal back then.

I saw an documentary from the early 1960s on the subject of recent advances in transportation. Most of the show was about the interstate highway system, but a part featured air travel advances, including that terminal. The concept of pulling the aircraft beneath the roof to load and unload (via stairs) was pretty advanced for it's day.

That being said, the years haven't been kind to that terminal. Delta has sunk far too much money into it, after years of neglect by Pan Am, but it remains dilapidated and ill suited to our operations. The only way to fix it would be to level it and start over, IMHO.

Ok should I get the ktm 525, or crf 450x ?
Im leaning towards the crf a little, what do you ktm riders have to say about them?

Hi Woxof,

Signed up just a few days ago to contribute to the forum after reading your post. Hopefully, I can offer some info to amplify that others have already given.

Delta as stand-alone:
Clearly the best option for at least the near term and IMO the most likely scenario. The employees have sacrificed billions in order to assist in saving the company and those sacrifices are beginning to yield results. I share your level of confidence in management. However, there has been some serious looks in the mirror in the last few years by our management team. Grinstein was on the board while Mullins team ran the company into the ground with bad decisions. Grinstein takes responsibility for lack of action during this time and will not hold back the profanity when describing Leo and the others who woked with him.
Fortunately, they have put some people in places where I think they have been best able to perform. Jim Whitehurst, the COO, has spoken on a number of occassions with employees in various forums regarding a variety of topics. What is noteworthy about Whitehurst, besides being only 39, is they way he speaks regarding the competitive posture of the company. He at a minimum talks about Delta being an aggressive, proactive competitor. This is contrary to the "ignore the problem and it will go away" approach of past years. An example of this is Whitehurst claiming to no longer yielding "an inch" to AirTran as Delta has done in the past. AirTran has done well in ATL in part because Delta has failed to recognize them as a viable entinty.
As for Ed Bastian, Delta CFO, I know even less of him. While no doubt a smart guy, Bastian strikes me as a numbers guy. Which I feel makes him a less attractive candidate to replace Grinstein as CEO. I have never been confident with those who are concerned with "sortie counts." I of course could be waaayy off regarding Bastian.
Glen Hauenstein who is in charge of network planning and revenue management made good changes in how Delta assets are being used. For example, Delta is no longer flying 777s from ATL to MCO and have pulled other long range (777, 767ER, Etc.) aircraft off the domestic schedule and put them where they should be, flying higher yield passengers to international destinations.
Bottom line, management has begun to demonstrate a decision process that seems more in line with what should be done rather than what should not be done.
Merger:
A buyout by USAirways is the worst possible thing that I can think of and is a huge threat to the employees of Delta Airlines. I for one think Parker, and those backing him, are smoking a giant Bob Marley if they think this is going to go through. I believe, and hope, that this plan wil die at the hands of the official creditors commitee. At a minimum, the buyout plan should take a well deserved bullet at the hands of the Department of Justice.
Should it go through, thousands of Delta employees can expect to lose their jobs as USAirways gives up assets to satisfy DOJ requirements. "May have to sell one of the shuttles." Give me a break. What will have to be sold to satisfy the DOJ is way beyond the shuttle and a few gates at Charlotte.
Additionally, Parker fails to realize that there are few or no Delta employees (no pilots for sure) that want this deal to pass. What would ensue is labor strife on a scale the industry has not yet seen. Consequently, the entire entity could fail taking down AWA, USAirways and Delta employees all together. The people backing Parker do not care about that if they can still grab the short term gains and run away with the money.
As for a merger with another company, there are certainly those that fit much better. Remember that the many federal officials think there is not enough competiton (unbelievable) in the airline industry and likely will look unfavorably on any merger of 2 large carrirers let alone USA/Delta. In any merger scenario, some people are going to pay the price for the plan.

As for leaving a job one has now to go to a job that may or may not pay off? That is a tough call. If Delta exits on its own, I think they will do well and will likely have a modest rate of hiring for some time. If USAirways succeeds, I think there will be a giant sucking hole in the industry after ALL of the combined company fails.
At minumum, be in a position to hit the go button on applying. Or, be prepared to make a difficult choice should you be offered a job if you have already applied and interviewed. All of us should know much more in a few weeks as deadlines for the buyout offer draw near.

Good Luck

Excellent post, isgau8. Excellent.

Hey all,

I was gone for five days-o-flying and I just sat down at the computer.

USAir is a dead deal now. Good news.

I'm not close enough to the action and the top brass at DAL to get a personal feel for them. The insights that others have of them is greatly appreciated. Of course, they almost sank the ship and it is those same people (sort of) that will guide the recovery. The question remains: will the plan work... is it realistic... will they get the DAL people behind them? From what I hear so far, so good.

Thanks to all for the insightful reply.

Woxof

B6 = JetBlue Airways

[QUOTE=NGINEWHOISWHAT;103899][quote=Woxof;103776]Let me throw this out there to get the board's feedback.

I'm in a holding pattern on Delta.

:cool: And Doug Steenland was the placenta.........