With all due respect I spent eight years at the regionals. I am more than happy to take my chances at the bottom of the list at the Widget than to stay at the top of a regional seniority list. There is no comparison between the two. I would much rather take my chances with furough based purely on speculation than the reality of "prison life" that exists at the regional level. Cheers.

You guys need to think long term if you're thinking about staying at your regional and "seeing what happens". What may happen over the next few years is you will go from having 6 possible employers to work at to three. Meanwhile your buddies that took a chance dealt with the uncertainty and will eventually get enough seniority to where they don't worry much about losing their jobs, and they'll be working the largest airlines in the world with many options in front of them. Remember, this career is a marathon and not a sprint.

If hiring stops and it takes 3-5 years to happen again, you'll be that much further along in life with more responsibilities and it'll be tougher to make the jump.

The feeders will see their share of turmoil out of this, so don't think you'll be sitting on the sidelines watching idly.

Some of these smaller cities that are currently fed by RJs from competing carriers will consolidate and redistribute the routes to larger equipment. 50-seat RJ flying is going to be squeezed.

Anyway, nobody can ever promise you that you won't be furloughed and speaking as someone that was furloughed for 3 years I can say there are worse things that can happen to you.

Good luck to us all!

I absolutely agree with you. That's what i tell people all the time. The best time to get on with a Major is when everyone else hesitates. If you hang out at the regionals to "wait it out" you are missing the boat. I am taking my chances and recently left a better regional captain position to go to NWA. I haven't thought twice about it. If mergers happen you might see hiring stop or slow but i dont see furloughs happening(just my opinion), but the regionals are going to take a hit also if mergers happen. Like you said anyone getting hired now will be working for 1 of the largest airlines in the world, not a bad spot to be in. Many of us at the regionals have 30+ years left of this industry and who do you think is going to be around for those 30 years, NWA/DAL or your current regional?

Everyones situation is different and in the end we all just need to do whats best for ourselves and families. Its all a gamble, figure risk vs reward;).

Not to mention the fact the Majors call all the shots. At some point I expect the number of RJ's at the regionals to reduce significantly. Delta is already alluding to this based on $100/barrel oil. If you believe what some analysts are saying most "regional jets" (less than 100 seats) will be gone in the next ten years due to economics.

Also, don't forget about the residual effect of any mergers to make a Super Major may bet that the regionals get smaller and smaller. Instead of using an RJ from Columbus to ORD, the new UAL/CAL may need a 737 to do the route. Look what American is trying to do to Eagle. I think the majors are the best way to go right now.

or one certain fractional....

The shift from the regionals back to the majors will be driven by re-fleeting in 2012 to 2015 with the Pratt GTF and aircraft that best employ its' technology.

Today's regional Captains can be Captains, or First Officers, on that equipment. The difference is paying your dues now, or later.

There will always be a 50 seat regional jet, just like there will always be a Beech 1900 and a 767 sized jet. Each of these aircraft has a market. The market allocation will change in response to economic factors.

In the short term I think the RJ market is fine due to the very large number of RJ's being ordered in the 70 to 90 seat range. Bombardier's been increasing production, but no one has noticed!

The "common knowledge" that the RJ is dead in this NWA/DAL merger is flat out wrong. In fact, as I see the stars beginning to align the DC-9 and some MD88's are much more likely to be getting parked.

I don't like it and I'm not advocating it. Just calling it as it appears to be coming down.

Scope
 

This of course depends on each individuals major carrier's scope clauses. If ALPA, SWAPA or APA caves on scope clause language and allows their respective regionals to fly 100 seaters (E-190 at Republic for UAL), regionals could find themselves growing again...

JMHO

The RJ issue will be market driven, the issue of who will fly them and how much those that do will make will be determined at the table.

The issue of RJ's and how big regional airlines will be is predicated on scope clauses at major carriers. APLA's whole strategy with regard to mergers is to gain leverage to regain lost pay and work rules. CEO's at the potentailly mergering airlines have conceded a willingness to cooperate to buy labor peace. If ALPA is sucessful in strengthing scope across the board, the regional flying will shift to the majors. The opposite is true if ALPA fails to strengthen scope. Pretty simple.

Found it...

Delta-Northwest would benefit AirTran, exec says

By RUSSELL GRANTHAM
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published on: 01/30/08
AirTran Airways' chief executive says a merger between rivals Delta and Northwest would bring
his carrier growth opportunities.
AirTran would likely seek more gates at the Atlanta airport and additional operating rights at key
airports in New York and Washington, D.C., Chief Executive Bob Fornaro said Tuesday. In
comments after AirTran released its quarterly financial results, Fornaro said Delta and Northwest
— said to be in merger talks — would likely reduce flights and close one or more hubs, as well as
shed assets to make the deal palatable to federal regulators.
The prospect of such a merger remained the backdrop Tuesday as AirTran, JetBlue and
Northwest reported fourth-quarter losses caused partly by near-record jet fuel bills.
Delta also initiated merger talks with United Airlines, but they no longer appear to be active,
people familiar with the matter have said.
AirTran posted a $2.2 million loss for the final three months of 2007 as a 35 percent jump in fuel
costs overwhelmed increased revenues from rising traffic and fares. Northwest, which remained
mum about its merger plans, reported a net loss of $8 million in the quarter.
Orlando-based AirTran's loss was narrower than a year earlier, and the airline still posted a full-
year 2007 profit of $52.7 million. In 2006, AirTran reported net profit of $14.7 million for the full
year and a $3.6 million loss in the fourth quarter.
Some politicians are already voicing opposition to a merger involving two carriers as big as Delta
and Northwest, saying such a deal could spark broader consolidation and would harm
consumers.

AirTran's Fornaro, however, said a Delta-Northwest marriage could free up a handful of gates at
Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson airport now controlled by Northwest. AirTran is Delta's top competitor
in Atlanta and has long coveted more gates.
"We would try to make the case that we should get those gates," Fornaro said in an interview.
Likewise, he said AirTran would be interested in acquiring landing and takeoff slots that could
become available at New York's LaGuardia Airport and Washington's Reagan National — airports
favored by lucrative business travelers.
Even though a merged Delta and Northwest could be the world's largest airline as measured by
traffic, Fornaro said the combination would benefit AirTran more than hurt it.
"Carriers like AirTran that are efficient and nimble can really capitalize on this situation," said
Fornaro, who succeeded Joe Leonard as CEO in November. Leonard, still chairman, plans to
retire in May.
Also Tuesday, AirTran rolled out more expansion plans for Milwaukee, the home of Midwest
Airlines, which it tried unsuccessfully to buy last year. The move signals that AirTran is building its
own flight schedule in the wake of the failed buyout.
AirTran plans to start seasonal flights in May between Milwaukee and Los Angeles, Seattle, San
Francisco, San Diego, and Boston, plus additional nonstop flights to Las Vegas. The carrier
earlier announced plans for Milwaukee-New York flights.
AirTran operates or has announced plans for 20 daily flights from Milwaukee, and Fornaro said
that number will grow to 50 in the next few years.
AirTran dropped its plans to buy Midwest when private equity firm Texas Pacific Group teamed
up with Northwest Airlines to buy Midwest.
The Department of Justice is doing an extended review of the buyout, but executives at both
AirTran and Northwest said Tuesday that they expect approval soon.


So, it looks like the ATL gates AirTran would have access to in the short term are the ones being used by Northwest.