American Merger?
09-10-2013, 02:02 PM
#103
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2013
Posts: 207
OK, total conjecture on the situation at American, but at least its from the inside if that's worth anything. If we are short of pilots, verdict still out on
that one, it can only be because of A. training bubble due to the airbus, mainly taking FO's off larger equipment, or B. sick calls due to a lot of extra flying. With monthly maxs of 90-96 hours, most are flying 10-20% more by choice. Certainly takes a toll on the fatigue factor since its inception, but as far as open time for my status, there is little to be had.
In fact, half my trips are green indicating surplus of manning coverage. The coming FAA limits are a big factor. The 9 hour flight limit for two man crew will reduce the third relief pilot from Europe to the east coast, which now is 8 hours. Of course, the biggest factor lies with the merger and subsequently, potential CEO Parker. Personally, I think he will continue what our current CEO has started, with a larger and hopefully more efficient airline, but not a whole lot more. Old planes will be replaced and parked,
new ones will hopefully fly more, but with our increased productivity and elimination of redundantcy(?sp, some DOJ imposed) its hard to see real
growth. They say the 319 will open up new markets, perhaps. I wonder about regional eagle contractors though, probably hard for management to
resist. On the bright side though, the 321 could free up 757/767 to more
international and do intl on its own right, maybe without MD80 reduction if fuel stays "reasonable," but they are getting tired at this point. My hope and best guess will have AAs nonhub airports remaining well served focus O and D airports, especially to US hubs. We are already sharing JFK with them with service to CLT. I think PHX, CLT and PHL will link up with DFW
MIA well, STL is already dehubbed and ORD willm reside as another one world focus city with regional feed, but no more to compete against UA.
As Parker has already commented, the Pacific will be largely One World partners, probably complimented by DFW nonstops. Same goes to S. America, with AA flying from MIA and DFW and OW the other main cities.
Even though they want to, I dont see JFK or LAX growing much. All in all,
it should be a wash, with capacity up due to increased airplane utilization, and attrition will require off the street hiring when the upflow finishes.
I was around during the last boom in the eighties and I cant see that type of expansion in this environment. Most of us hired then have between 5-10 years "if" the retirement age stays the same. I am encouraged that US is hiring. I look at the past merging of our competitors and havent seen the hiring everyone is expecting, consolidation doesnt seem to promote that. Like I inferred earlier, I feel Parker is getting us cheap. He'll have at least three years to take advantage of it before we gain parity with the others, but thats a long way away in this business. Most on the line feel the merger will go through, for better or worse, but nobody is expecting a miracle thereafter. Although I did not vote for the last contract, I understand new management is critical to our survival. I will hope for the best!!!
that one, it can only be because of A. training bubble due to the airbus, mainly taking FO's off larger equipment, or B. sick calls due to a lot of extra flying. With monthly maxs of 90-96 hours, most are flying 10-20% more by choice. Certainly takes a toll on the fatigue factor since its inception, but as far as open time for my status, there is little to be had.
In fact, half my trips are green indicating surplus of manning coverage. The coming FAA limits are a big factor. The 9 hour flight limit for two man crew will reduce the third relief pilot from Europe to the east coast, which now is 8 hours. Of course, the biggest factor lies with the merger and subsequently, potential CEO Parker. Personally, I think he will continue what our current CEO has started, with a larger and hopefully more efficient airline, but not a whole lot more. Old planes will be replaced and parked,
new ones will hopefully fly more, but with our increased productivity and elimination of redundantcy(?sp, some DOJ imposed) its hard to see real
growth. They say the 319 will open up new markets, perhaps. I wonder about regional eagle contractors though, probably hard for management to
resist. On the bright side though, the 321 could free up 757/767 to more
international and do intl on its own right, maybe without MD80 reduction if fuel stays "reasonable," but they are getting tired at this point. My hope and best guess will have AAs nonhub airports remaining well served focus O and D airports, especially to US hubs. We are already sharing JFK with them with service to CLT. I think PHX, CLT and PHL will link up with DFW
MIA well, STL is already dehubbed and ORD willm reside as another one world focus city with regional feed, but no more to compete against UA.
As Parker has already commented, the Pacific will be largely One World partners, probably complimented by DFW nonstops. Same goes to S. America, with AA flying from MIA and DFW and OW the other main cities.
Even though they want to, I dont see JFK or LAX growing much. All in all,
it should be a wash, with capacity up due to increased airplane utilization, and attrition will require off the street hiring when the upflow finishes.
I was around during the last boom in the eighties and I cant see that type of expansion in this environment. Most of us hired then have between 5-10 years "if" the retirement age stays the same. I am encouraged that US is hiring. I look at the past merging of our competitors and havent seen the hiring everyone is expecting, consolidation doesnt seem to promote that. Like I inferred earlier, I feel Parker is getting us cheap. He'll have at least three years to take advantage of it before we gain parity with the others, but thats a long way away in this business. Most on the line feel the merger will go through, for better or worse, but nobody is expecting a miracle thereafter. Although I did not vote for the last contract, I understand new management is critical to our survival. I will hope for the best!!!
11-01-2013, 08:57 AM
#104
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2013
Posts: 854
Originally Posted by TRZ06
OK, total conjecture on the situation at American, but at least its from the inside if that's worth anything. If we are short of pilots, verdict still out on
that one, it can only be because of A. training bubble due to the airbus, mainly taking FO's off larger equipment, or B. sick calls due to a lot of extra flying. With monthly maxs of 90-96 hours, most are flying 10-20% more by choice. Certainly takes a toll on the fatigue factor since its inception, but as far as open time for my status, there is little to be had.
In fact, half my trips are green indicating surplus of manning coverage. The coming FAA limits are a big factor. The 9 hour flight limit for two man crew will reduce the third relief pilot from Europe to the east coast, which now is 8 hours. Of course, the biggest factor lies with the merger and subsequently, potential CEO Parker. Personally, I think he will continue what our current CEO has started, with a larger and hopefully more efficient airline, but not a whole lot more. Old planes will be replaced and parked,
new ones will hopefully fly more, but with our increased productivity and elimination of redundantcy(?sp, some DOJ imposed) its hard to see real
growth. They say the 319 will open up new markets, perhaps. I wonder about regional eagle contractors though, probably hard for management to
resist. On the bright side though, the 321 could free up 757/767 to more
international and do intl on its own right, maybe without MD80 reduction if fuel stays "reasonable," but they are getting tired at this point. My hope and best guess will have AAs nonhub airports remaining well served focus O and D airports, especially to US hubs. We are already sharing JFK with them with service to CLT. I think PHX, CLT and PHL will link up with DFW
MIA well, STL is already dehubbed and ORD willm reside as another one world focus city with regional feed, but no more to compete against UA.
As Parker has already commented, the Pacific will be largely One World partners, probably complimented by DFW nonstops. Same goes to S. America, with AA flying from MIA and DFW and OW the other main cities.
Even though they want to, I dont see JFK or LAX growing much. All in all,
it should be a wash, with capacity up due to increased airplane utilization, and attrition will require off the street hiring when the upflow finishes.
I was around during the last boom in the eighties and I cant see that type of expansion in this environment. Most of us hired then have between 5-10 years "if" the retirement age stays the same. I am encouraged that US is hiring. I look at the past merging of our competitors and havent seen the hiring everyone is expecting, consolidation doesnt seem to promote that. Like I inferred earlier, I feel Parker is getting us cheap. He'll have at least three years to take advantage of it before we gain parity with the others, but thats a long way away in this business. Most on the line feel the merger will go through, for better or worse, but nobody is expecting a miracle thereafter. Although I did not vote for the last contract, I understand new management is critical to our survival. I will hope for the best!!!
that one, it can only be because of A. training bubble due to the airbus, mainly taking FO's off larger equipment, or B. sick calls due to a lot of extra flying. With monthly maxs of 90-96 hours, most are flying 10-20% more by choice. Certainly takes a toll on the fatigue factor since its inception, but as far as open time for my status, there is little to be had.
In fact, half my trips are green indicating surplus of manning coverage. The coming FAA limits are a big factor. The 9 hour flight limit for two man crew will reduce the third relief pilot from Europe to the east coast, which now is 8 hours. Of course, the biggest factor lies with the merger and subsequently, potential CEO Parker. Personally, I think he will continue what our current CEO has started, with a larger and hopefully more efficient airline, but not a whole lot more. Old planes will be replaced and parked,
new ones will hopefully fly more, but with our increased productivity and elimination of redundantcy(?sp, some DOJ imposed) its hard to see real
growth. They say the 319 will open up new markets, perhaps. I wonder about regional eagle contractors though, probably hard for management to
resist. On the bright side though, the 321 could free up 757/767 to more
international and do intl on its own right, maybe without MD80 reduction if fuel stays "reasonable," but they are getting tired at this point. My hope and best guess will have AAs nonhub airports remaining well served focus O and D airports, especially to US hubs. We are already sharing JFK with them with service to CLT. I think PHX, CLT and PHL will link up with DFW
MIA well, STL is already dehubbed and ORD willm reside as another one world focus city with regional feed, but no more to compete against UA.
As Parker has already commented, the Pacific will be largely One World partners, probably complimented by DFW nonstops. Same goes to S. America, with AA flying from MIA and DFW and OW the other main cities.
Even though they want to, I dont see JFK or LAX growing much. All in all,
it should be a wash, with capacity up due to increased airplane utilization, and attrition will require off the street hiring when the upflow finishes.
I was around during the last boom in the eighties and I cant see that type of expansion in this environment. Most of us hired then have between 5-10 years "if" the retirement age stays the same. I am encouraged that US is hiring. I look at the past merging of our competitors and havent seen the hiring everyone is expecting, consolidation doesnt seem to promote that. Like I inferred earlier, I feel Parker is getting us cheap. He'll have at least three years to take advantage of it before we gain parity with the others, but thats a long way away in this business. Most on the line feel the merger will go through, for better or worse, but nobody is expecting a miracle thereafter. Although I did not vote for the last contract, I understand new management is critical to our survival. I will hope for the best!!!
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