STILL GROUNDED

Yeah right, if you're lucky heller will let us put 7 on a plane.

I am going only from what I am told by some check airman on class size. For all I know he was referring to how many were in training. I agree not much room in St Louis for that. Doesn't mean they wouldn't run two rooms on the same hire date.

Who said anything about the BANK. Furthermore, they aren't my goal or dreams for that matter. Once again you me or anyone else piloting an airplane are going to have little say in how this industry evolves. If RAH doesn't compete for the business someone else will. Its the mainline carriers that are creating the need. You can take away the supply but only for so long. They will find a way around it.

Settle down Popa, I'm not combating you here. They've scrapped Paris, been using Jet Blue for RW re-currents, not sure about S5. Again, I am only suggesting attrition is most likely the culprit. No I don't think 10 aircraft which may be replacing not adding to the fleet are going to send things into a spiral. At best you'd be getting 1 new plane a month thats about all Embraer can do.

stlcfii

Here is my take on the industry in the next 10 years... (Developed through numerous talks with other airline pilots/employees at different majors/regionals)

DL/NW merger goes through. Republic buys Compass getting all their 175s and any options. Comair and Mesaba are sold/parted out and eventually disappear. The 'new Delta' focuses primarily on International flying and long haul domestic flying. The remaining 80%+ is shifted to the regionals.

Mesa disappears due to lawsuits and other regionals acquire their jets for cheap.

Express Jet/Pilots are picked up by Skywest.

CO/UA will have to merge to compete with the 'new' Delta. Scope goes away and they push off most of their domestic flying to the regionals to compete with Delta's lower cost.

Republic gets 190/195s

AE either gets disbanded by AA due to their higher cost compared to other contracts or is sold off and dies due to not being able to compete.

Most Low Cost Carriers disappear due to the majors being able run them out through their use of the regionals.

USAir sells or leases their 190s in an attempt for quick cash. They'll probably go to Republic.

AA or USAir disappear

Republic and Skywest will be the dominating regionals. Others will be either bought up, ran out of business, or to small to matter. Pay is on the scale of the Legacies today.

EVENTUALLY (15-20 yrs), management at Republic and Skywest wise up, buy into the alliances, and become true domestic 'Majors' flying their own colors while feeding the international 'Legacies.'

Lighteningspeed

The last post is total nonsense. I don't know who you've been talking to but it is filled with a lot of BS and wishful thinking on your part. Only thing correct about what you wrote is that there will be a major reconsolidation of regionals and NWA is not going to scrap Mesaba or Compass anytime soon. If anything, DAL/NWA is wary of any one regional getting too big for their britches. Most of the flying for regional for NWA/DAL will be balanced out between Mesaba fo CRJ900 flying, Compass and either Skywest and Comair or Pinnacle. E175 is not even in the works for DAL.

stlcfii

Quote:

NWA is not going to scrap Mesaba or Compass anytime soon.

1. I said Republic would buy Compass not that they would be scrapped.
2. I'm sure when 2 airlines combine, they don’t get rid of anything. Right... I guess the fact that Delta has been trying to sell of Comair for the last however many years means nothing. Somehow, with this merger they'll suddenly want to keep them for years to come... and add a couple more while they're at it. Whether they sell them to another regional, get rid of some planes, or take planes and lease them to other airlines, they get immediate cash to better help the merger. Why did Delta sell ASA again? Oh yeah, quick cash to try and postpone bankruptcy.

Quote:

Most of the flying for regional for NWA/DAL will be balanced out between Mesaba fo CRJ900 flying, Compass and either Skywest and Comair or Pinnacle. E175 is not even in the works for DAL.

1. So are you saying that after the mergerRepublic will somehow stop flying for the new Delta? That's pretty far fetched knowing in 2007 33% of Republic's flying was for bid-D. Have you flown through Cincinnati lately? It's getting pretty close to 50/50 between Comair and Chautauqua jets out there.

2. Where did you get your info on the E175 not being in the works for DAL? I'd like to refer you to this link about Republic. http://biz.yahoo.com/e/080221/rjet10-k.html I specifically like the part in paragraph 4 about 16 of the 29 new 175s going to Delta between mid 08 and the first quarter of 09. Weird... Sure, the CRJ900 might be a new regional jet, but it still feels like a regional jet. It might be slightly more efficient per seat-mile, but the 175 has significantly more payload, range and a roomier cabin. Have you ever flown in a 170 series airliner? There is nothing like being on a 'regional jet' that has a seat 2 inches wider than a mainline jet and offers most of the same features. So, again, why wouldn't DL want the 175s knowing their advantages over the 900, having them operated by the '2008 Regional Airline of the Year', and the fact that Republic has 74 options for 170s that could be converted into 175/190/195s and put into DL colors?


Regardless, the DL/NW merger will open the flood gates of change…….

STILL GROUNDED

Everybody should print this out, tape it too a calender somewhere around 2012 and compare. You may be listening to the next Nostradamus here.

SharkyBN584

It's always fun to catch up to a rumor after it's made it's way down the pipe. I can safely tell you that "an entire class of crj" people did not fail out at CHQ. A couple guys dropped the ball on upgrade, that's about it...

Lighteningspeed

I am not going to waste my time arguing with someone about which RJ is better. An RJ is an RJ. E175 is still an RJ and passengers are not fooled.

What you don't seem to get is that airlines are run by accountants and lawyers. They do not care all that much about whether E175 is a couple of inches wider in the cabin or not. Bottom line, how much does it cost to operate, is what matters. The reason why Compass got E175 and Mesaba is operating CRJ900 is NWA management is trying to determine which RJ is more economical to operate. Once they determine that, along with the cost of retraining either group of pilots, they will decide which ones to go for. Or they msay decide to operate both. Who knows. You certainly don't know.

DAL was trying to sell Comair before the merger. What DAL will do after the merger is anybody's guess. Don't try to pretend like you know. They may keep Comair around to whipsaw RAH and others in line. This is very likely. Whatever gets them more profit will be the deciding factor. This much is very certain.

Your ignorance astonishes me. Compass was created by NWA pilots for their flow down protection before NWA purchased Mesaba. NWA will not sell Compass to RAH, not before the NWA pilot group's concerns are met. Also, NWA/DAL will not leverage out their regional flying to RAH when doing so will give too much control over to RAH. They need Comair and RAH so they use them to whipsaw one against the other. NWA has already created the Mesaba Compass Holding Corporation to operate Compass and Mesaba. NWA/DAL is unlikely to sell Mesaba Compass Holding Corporation or any of its holdings. Not before they have a fairly clear picture of where they are headed.

BB of RAH probably learned from Independence Air's mistake. Launching its own brand name flying is always a very risky proposition and you will not likely see BB launching one in the near future when his job is on the line. He is probably too smart for that. Even JetBlue right now is looking for partners. Why do you think Lufthansa has invested in JetBlue? At anycase, I wish the best for all of you at RAH and if BB starts its own brand name flying, good luck to you all.

Neither you nor I are in on the board room conversations so don't try to act like you have the crystal ball. Even the top management probably do not have everything mapped out yet so how can you, a regional pilot predict it with any semblance of accuracy. I do find it amusing though a lot of pilots on this forum in different threads predict it in favor of their own particular airline.

Me, I am just doing this to break the monotony between flying.

UnlimitedAkro

This post is up there with the most ridiculous posts ever on this site.

You my friend are nuts!

UnlimitedAkro

post deleted.

Lighteningspeed

I agree with you there. He thinks AA and USAir is going to disappear! He thinks RAH will come to its senses and start up its own brand name flying in this business climate. My mistake for trying to conduct a logical discourse with someone like that. Wouldn't surprise me if we found out he is a newhire at RAH.