Why DAL's proposed ratio is inequitable
05-20-2008, 03:33 PM
#371
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Originally Posted by Spaceman Spliff
I apologize for insinuating that you were a NALPA goon. It's clear that you're a hedge fund plant on this forum. My compliments on not being discovered until now.
Carl
05-20-2008, 04:06 PM
#372
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Originally Posted by Carl Spackler
10 billion in break up value is a pipe-dream in my opinion. These assets require the burning of fuel at nearly $130 a barrel, thus funding for such an adventure would be extremely difficult to find in this zero credit environment.
I think this merger is very much in the interest of DAL. Adding Pacific routes and 3.5 billion in cash is absolutely critical for DAL, but not for NWA. We are smaller yet we have equal unrestricted cash. Since our burn rate is much lower than most, NWA will be able to outlast most airlines if the game turns into one of endurance. If DALPA really wishes for the Pacific routes and cash with the fewest pilots possible, this merger is definitely NOT in the interest of NWA pilots. With the new legislation preventing unfair SLI's, American might even be a better option for NWA pilots. A lot of this will depend on the ACTIONS of DALPA going forward - we've all had enough of talking.
I think the biggest hurdle to this merger is the current DAL stock price. Since this is a no cash/stock swap deal, the lower DAL's stock price, the lower the value for NWA shareholders' investment. This could rapidly get to the point where NWA shareholders vote NO on the merger. This would require DAL to add cash to the transaction, and they simply can't afford that right now.
I think this deal is in increasing danger. Just my opinion.
Carl
I think this merger is very much in the interest of DAL. Adding Pacific routes and 3.5 billion in cash is absolutely critical for DAL, but not for NWA. We are smaller yet we have equal unrestricted cash. Since our burn rate is much lower than most, NWA will be able to outlast most airlines if the game turns into one of endurance. If DALPA really wishes for the Pacific routes and cash with the fewest pilots possible, this merger is definitely NOT in the interest of NWA pilots. With the new legislation preventing unfair SLI's, American might even be a better option for NWA pilots. A lot of this will depend on the ACTIONS of DALPA going forward - we've all had enough of talking.
I think the biggest hurdle to this merger is the current DAL stock price. Since this is a no cash/stock swap deal, the lower DAL's stock price, the lower the value for NWA shareholders' investment. This could rapidly get to the point where NWA shareholders vote NO on the merger. This would require DAL to add cash to the transaction, and they simply can't afford that right now.
I think this deal is in increasing danger. Just my opinion.
Carl
Current Morgan Stanley airline position paper.
US Airways, Northwest and United topped the investment bank’s list of airlines likely to file for Chapter 11 unless market conditions improved dramatically, followed by American, JetBlue, Continental and AirTran. Delta, Alaska and Southwest, they wrote, are the least likely to be calling their lawyers anytime soon.
But wait, it gets gloomier, and Baker et al get all bearish - literally:
If it sounds as if we are panicking, it is because few managements appear to be.
Industry liquidity is admittedly abundant right now, and there’s always the possibility that fuel prices plummet. When challenged, several managements now concede that business plans rest on little more than outrunning the bear – you know, if one is hiking with a buddy then neither has to be faster than a marauding bear, only faster than his or her companion. While ‘outwit, outplay, outlast’ may provide entertaining fodder for reality-TV types, it is customarily accompanied by value destructive behavior coming at the expense of stakeholders.
To paraphrase a line from Jurassic Park, current cash balances may be met with the usual “oohs” and ”ahhs,” but later comes the running . . . and the screaming. Or so we fear
05-20-2008, 04:21 PM
#374
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Originally Posted by Carl Spackler
Hmmm....a hedge fund plant that is advising not to merge.
I think we need to look at another merger partner that doesn't hold us in such terribly low esteem.
05-20-2008, 04:51 PM
#375
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Originally Posted by Carl Spackler
Here we go again. I think we need to look at another merger partner that doesn't hold us in such terribly low esteem.
Carl
Carl
For what its worth the average line pilot from both airlines are pretty much cut from the same mold. If you throw 10 of them in a bar, 5 from each airline, at the end of the night they will be best friends and you would not be able to tell them apart. Except maybe the accents - Deliverance vs. Fargo
The DAL MEC has recently had a lot of experience in DC due to the attempted USAIR merger and perhaps this explains why they might be a bit more savy in this regard. I doubt that anyone here has anything but respect for the average NW pilot.
Scoop
05-20-2008, 05:03 PM
#376
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Originally Posted by Spaceman Spliff
Really? You didn't say this a couple posts ago?
Carl
05-20-2008, 05:10 PM
#377
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Originally Posted by sailingfun
Current Morgan Stanley airline position paper.
US Airways, Northwest and United topped the investment bank’s list of airlines likely to file for Chapter 11 unless market conditions improved dramatically, followed by American, JetBlue, Continental and AirTran. Delta, Alaska and Southwest, they wrote, are the least likely to be calling their lawyers anytime soon.
US Airways, Northwest and United topped the investment bank’s list of airlines likely to file for Chapter 11 unless market conditions improved dramatically, followed by American, JetBlue, Continental and AirTran. Delta, Alaska and Southwest, they wrote, are the least likely to be calling their lawyers anytime soon.
Carl
05-21-2008, 04:44 AM
#379
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Analyst,s have been wrong in the past and will continue to be so in the future so take what they say with a grain of salt.
Maybe the principal carrier schould be NWA instead of DAL
I,m hazarding a guess that a mojority voted yes on LOA 19
Maybe the principal carrier schould be NWA instead of DAL
I,m hazarding a guess that a mojority voted yes on LOA 19
