Originally Posted by Carl Spackler (Post 412632)

The SLI could happen any time as well - I've stopped trying to predict anything here. Too many surprises.

Carl

Originally Posted by PropNWA (Post 412734)

That's the thing I've been wondering about myself. I assume they will want to move some planes around ASAP. If, for example, they want some 400's in ATL, would they displace former NWA DTW 400 pilots to ATL. Or, I suppose they could theoretically start each 400 trip with a deadhead from DTW to ATL as a temporary measure until they get the single operating certificate. I'll be curious to see how it all works out.

Originally Posted by Scoop (Post 412842)

Carl,
I agree predictions are hard - especially about the future.:)

One of my favorite "Yogisms."

Scoop

Originally Posted by alfaromeo (Post 392985)

NWABusDriver and Keenster,

Retirements are fixed, but they don't mean anything if a pilot retires and his job is gone after he retires. In order for you to move up, there has to be a job to move up to. Delta has added 700 jobs including 350 wide body Captain jobs in the last year. That is the same as Northwest having a static fleet and having 700 pilots retire. Unfortunately, Northwest does not have a static fleet. They are losing 52 airplanes this year.

If you are going to look forward and count retirements, then you are going to look forward and count growth according to each airline's business plans. You can't just cherry pick one item that favors you and assume away all others. Again, retirements only matter if your fleet doesn't shrink more than the retirements. Right now your fleet is shrinking more than your retirements. Most Northwest pilots say "I will make the Whale in 20XX" depending on their seniority. How do you know the Whales will be around in 10 years or more? Where did all the DC-10's go? To make a forward looking view based on retirements requires you to make the same forward looking predictions on fleets as a growth plan does. Your forward looking assumptions are just as wrong as my forward looking assumptions, this industry changes rapidly.

You can either snapshot where we are right now, or you can look forward using ALL forward looking factors. If you think any arbitrator will allow you to cherry pick your individual arguments then you are mistaken.

In the Nicolau award (US Air/Am West), the arbitrator said that all that forward looking crap for both sides was just that, crap. He took a snapshot and integrated the lists based on that snapshot.

You are correct that after a merger Delta's superior contract will become community property and be shared. After a merger, Delta's superior growth plan will become community property and be shared. Northwest's slight edge in retirements (of active pilots, not long term sick) in the short term (about 350 more at 10 years) and Delta's slight edge in the long term (about 350 more at 15 years) will also become community property and be shared. If you want to keep "your" retirements then you have to keep "your" contract and "your" fleet plan. No cherry picking allowed.

I think the Northwest pilots should get used to the idea of a snapshot integration using some ratio method. That is what was used in the Airways arbitration and that will most likely be a guiding factor if we are forced to arbitration. While it will affect your advancement due to retirements, it will give you huge benefits in contract items and in potential fleet growth. I know that seniority can't be bought, but your view on what your retirements mean to you will necessarily be translated into economic terms. Any outside arbitrator will see that the contractual and fleet growth economic gains will outweigh your retirement issues. Whatever personal value you place on being a "Whale Captain" will not factor into the decision.