Why DAL's proposed ratio is inequitable
 

This is my first post, as I have wanted to study the facts for a while. I am around 500 on the NWA list - hired in 1983. NWA is my 3rd airline and I've been furloughed 5 times in my career.

The reason most NWA guys could not accept the ratio proposed by DAL is quite simple. I am 52 years old and nearly everyone senior to me at NWA is older. The majority of the top 500 at DAL are in their 40's. Even if DAL's proposed ratio was one for one, that means around 500 DAL people in their 40's would be senior to me. At NWA, if I make it until 60, I retire as #9. With a one for one ratio with DAL pilots who are younger than me, the best I could hope for is retiring at #509. The same result occurs when you run this sampling back to the top 1000, top 1500, etc.

It is everyone's hope that if they make it until 60, there is a chance to make it to the top. At NWA, it was a possibility. With DAL's proposed ratio, this is an impossibility. This most unusual demographic at DAL is what makes a simple ratio inequitable.

Carl

Carl,

I can see your point. However here are some numbers for you.

I used you being 52 and expecting retirement in 2021 (age 65). I gave you the benifit of the doubt and considered any DAL pilot that should retire in 2021 senior to you. I did this because I didn't know your exact DOB.

Using this there were 242 DAL pilots that would be on the list senior to you using a relative position ratio when you retire. You would retire at 2% at the largest airline in the world.

Here's my math:

You said that you will retire 9 at NWA and I used 5150 for your pilot numbers.

I used 7330 for the number of DAL pilots. You would integrate with the 711 guy at DAL if you are 500 at NWA.

Again, I gave you all guys retiring in 2021 (above #711) being senior to you and I'm sure that if you did the same with your numbers you wouldn't be number 9 (unless you were born on Jan 1).

Summary: You lost less than 2% of your position through your retirement date because of the relative seniority position proposition. I don't see how that is too bad for you considering you are likely to be working for a more stable carrier with more routes, more aircraft and more pay.

Carl not to be mean but why does age have anything to do with it? There are guys much older working where I work and are junior to me.

Where are you finding DAL's proposal? I cannot find it anywhere.

I am not trying to start a fight at all, but does what you said really matter that much? You should still get the exact schedule you want, along with all the time off you want, in a fenced position. Isn't that right?

What about all the new hires that came to NWA because of all the retirements?

Are all the senior guys killing this deal for reasons like these?

I'm wondering where you got your data. I'm just under #1000 at Delta, age 50, and hired in 1987. I was one of the youngest in my class, as we were hiring a lot of Eastern pilots then. You're at about 10% on your list, I'm at about 13%. Our projected list has me moving to #89 by age 65 (pre-merger).

While you've obviously put more work into these calculations than I have, the numbers you come up with just don't make sense to me. I would hope that the MECs model this problem using data that both groups have verified.

As a 747 captain, you should see a QOL improvement as soon as you're under our contract; we fly our "ultra long-haul" flights with two captains and two F/Os. The number of 747 captains required will double.

Moonshot,

I don't understand your numbers, sorry. A buddy at Delta tells me that there are less than 100 guys over the age of 50. That means you have a built in demographic that is in essence a youth barrier that will be impossible to ever get past.

As stated in my first post, I don't believe that is right. If A-380's were purchased someday, someone like me could NEVER hold the airplane because my growth in seniority would be stunted by the youth barrier. This would be the case for all NWA pilots due to the Delta demographic. If so many of your 50 somethings hadn't taken the lump sum and retired early, I believe this list would be done already because the age distortion would not exist. This singular issue makes the DAL/NWA SLI a very challenging one indeed.

Carl

Carl,

I am around seniority # 2400. I will be 50 this year. The vast majority of the pilots senior to me are older. After the max exodus there was still 200+ over 50.

Yours in irrigation...;)

Pitts,

Niether side is going to publish their last proposal, so it requires some interpretation on my part. The NWA side says our last offer was a ratio that moved toward the Delta position. Delta says they offered a ratio that kept all pilots within .5% of their pre-merger relative seniority. Given these statements on both sides, I'm presuming that Date of Hire was either never offered or was quickly rejected.

With regard to your comment about there being fences, RA has publicly stated that he wants NO fences.

As I stated earlier, the age demographic affects all NWA pilots not just the senior ones. If the deal gets killed, it will be killed by all pilots not just the senior ones.

Carl

CVG and Sully,

We have quite a discrepancy in data. Sully says he is #2400 and the vast majority of pilots senior to him are over 50. The number I've heard from numerous sources is that there are less than 100 pilots at DAL over 50. A discrepancy like this should be easy to clear up. I wish I had a DAL seniority list with their respective birthdays.

Carl

Carl, I don't think a 52 year old 400 Captain 500 numbers from the top of the list is going to find any sympathy here. You've had a tough career with all those furloughs, but from where I sit you have it made, merger or no merger. I can't imagine how the merger would damage your career at this point.

My perspective... 320 FO holding a block,(just barely), hired in 99, furloughed twice, 43 years old.

Carl, your buddy is giving you some bad gouge. Here's what I found on a list dated 01 Jan 08:

Year of Birth/ number of pilots

1947/2
1948/60
1949/75
1950/89
1951/136
1952/157
1953/218
1954/272
1955/348
1956/478
1957/567

Total:2402 pilots over age 50 (This doesn't count the guys who have turned 50 in 2008)

Obviously, some of these guys are going to be junior to you, but the fact remains that there is a lot of bad information out there.

Not asking for sympathy at all, just trying to state the facts as best as I can discern them. I've read a lot of DAL pilots (and now you) sincerely commenting about not understanding what could possibly be distasteful about relative seniority. I'm stating the case as to why. The entire NWA MEC is now officially against the merger because of the SLI issue, so I'm fairly certain I'm not alone.

Carl

Just looked at the Delta list.

Of the first 500, approximately 95% are over 50.

The first 220 or so are within 5 - 10 years of retirement.

Looks like you got some bad info...



Kevin

It's awfully hard to admit you've made a mistake.

I think the NWA guys better start asking some hard questions of their elected reps.


JMO, YMMV!



Kevin

Carl,

I just looked at the DAL seniority list and while it doesn't list birthdays, it does list scheduled retirements. Someone who is 50 now would retire sometime in 2023.

Well, out of the top 400, all but about 20 are scheduled to retire before 2023, many within the next 10 years, in fact. I didn't look closely beyond 400 but a quick glance shows this trend continuing into the 600s. Of course, many of those folks have 2021 or 2022 retirement dates.

But whoever told you DAL only has about 100 pilots over 50 is full of sh!t. By the numbers I have, it's at least 500.

When you're talking about 12,000+ pilots, retiring at #9 or #90 won't make much of a difference, IMO.

Where it will make an impact is for the new hires at NWA who were hoping for a 3-year upgrade to DTW DC-9 Captain. An SLI will kill that. But then again, going at it alone in this environment would probably do the same, as well.

Staple,

It's not hard to admit a mistake at all. I do it all the time. Until I see a list for myself I can only go by what DAL and NWA pilots have noted on this forum. And that is the significant age demographic associated with the mass exodus of over age 50 pilots at DAL to capture their lump sum retirement. I actually hope you're right on this, but I don't think you are.

Carl

I can't send you our seniority list, but what I and the others have posted is 100% correct.

Yes, there was a max exodus. Yes, the overall pilot group at NWA, especially at the top, is older. But we have our geezers here, as well.

Who you callin' a geezer, kid?:)

Geez, you youngsters are too tough for me. It is past midnight and not even my bi-focals can help me read this computer screen anymore.

Good night,

Carl

From this NWA pilot's perspective, and that of a majority of those I've talked to.
We don't want your seats, we just want our seats. There are 902 Delta pilots senior to me. I prog out to retire on the whale or 787 as is. Fine with me. Fence the widebody Captains slots, no bump no flush, and date off hire. When we are all gone in 8 or 9 years, let the orgy begin. Best wishes to all New Global Airline pilots.

I'm sure you do. I should have made it more clear in my post that this was in reference to the NWA MEC...



I've got the latest seniority list parked right on the desktop of my computer. What has been posted is correct; you have had some bad info given to you!



Kevin

Carl,

CVG767A already posted the number of 50+ folks at 2402. I indicated that if we were to merger based on relative seniority you would merge next to the number 711 guy at DAL. Of those 711, only 242 (or less because I don't know your date of birth) are going to be around on your retirement day (if they all make it that long). You will retire at 2% or better with a relative seniority merger. #251 is the WORST that you would do based on the info you gave us.

I think that we are all just trying to show you guys that some of the rumors that are going around are false. It is in everyones best interest to get this list squared away and on with life.

Protesting a new list based on rumors is no good. Lets all look at hard numbers and facts.

I'm willing to conceed that you lose less than 2% of your current seniority at retirement if we merge the list based on relative seniority now. Is that really worth tanking this deal for everyone? As long as we can get along, I think that this merged airline is going to be a great one.

As far as getting you a list, I'd be happy to send you one but I'm on probation and I'm sure that violates some code on page 409 in some employee handbook and I really don't care to deal with any of that.

Any DAL guy willing to set Carl up with a list only has to log in, go to Pilot Resources and Scheduling, April Seniority List and save it to their computer and email it to him.

Here's to a fair, quick, and fact based integration and a new joint contract!

You mean by age 60 don't you :D

On a side note to Carl and anyone else, if it does apply to you. Don't you think it's a little hypocritical to talk about how age is going to slow your seniority advancement if you're planning on staying till age 65? In essence you just bumped it 5yrs so why expect sympathy from the masses?

Perhaps it'd help if DAL offered an early out to NWA pilots over 50. That might ease some of the pain the older guys are feeling, save some money for the company, and keep current people moving up and new people moving in.

[quote=Carl Spackler;365041]Moonshot,

I don't understand your numbers, sorry. A buddy at Delta tells me that there are less than 100 guys over the age of 50. That means you have a built in demographic that is in essence a youth barrier that will be impossible to ever get past.

As stated in my first post, I don't believe that is right. If A-380's were purchased someday, someone like me could NEVER hold the airplane because my growth in seniority would be stunted by the youth barrier. This would be the case for all NWA pilots due to the Delta demographic. If so many of your 50 somethings hadn't taken the lump sum and retired early, I believe this list would be done already because the age distortion would not exist. This singular issue makes the DAL/NWA SLI a very challenging one indeed


Your buddy is incorrect. Delta has over 1100 pilots over the age of 50. Many are quite junior as they were hired late in life. I am around 700 and age 50. I was one of the youngest in my class. Nearly everyone ahead of me on the list is over 50.

That train has left the station...

In the immortal words of TomGoodman:



Kevin

Carl... first of all, in advance... welcome to DAL. I sympathize with your issue, but I think there is one thing that has everybody all spooled up that is a misnomer. In your case Carl, so you would lose a few numbers. OK... you would not lose the seat you are in.. at the current seniority until there are vacancies in that category. It seems to me that alot of guys on here think there is going to be an advanced entitlement (that is what we call seat openings here at DAL) tomorrow, and you will get booted back to something else. Nothing could be further from the truth. And I am willing to wager that senior guys on the 777 at DAL are not drooling to fly the whale like you might believe. As for the A380... not at this airline. Ain't gonna happen... wouldn't be prudent... read my lips :)

Again, welcome...

Carl,

I just downloaded the Mar 2008 DAL seniority list (from our own website; I won't post it here). Of the first 300 numbers or so, only about FIVE are younger than 50. I am sure that we have quite a few more with lower seniority numbers that are also older than 50. I did not even check.

This idea that all our widebody captains are < 50 years old is a myth. We DID have somewhat of an "early" advancement due to the massive early retirements (at the loss of our pension, BTW) but remember that many of those early retirement were pilots who were within two or three years of age 60 anyway.

Here's to a joint SLI, and lucrative joint contract that will be the envy of everyone else.

Fact is that most of the guys that I fly with on the 767 are 50 or older.
How do I know? They tell me.
Lots of myth here.

If Delta only has 100 pilots over 50, then I guess I've flown with most of them! How does this stuff get started?!? Over 55 maybe.:rolleyes::eek:

Agreed. I flew with my first under 50 guy the other day and he just got on the airplane.

By my count, more than 700 guys are age 55 or older.

Well, I sure hope my MEC is considering more than just this type of argument. I certainly wouldn't have minded an equity payout, and a nice bump in the first year pay - and to work for the largest airline in the world (for now). But, No one is ever going to know what the SLI problem was....

...all this delay does is make the process more difficult, take longer, and foster more animosity. The deal is done either way.

oppps!..... I almost inadvertently started another bad info myth. My bad!

You'll find the list on the Flight Ops page on Deltanet: Pilot Resources and Scheduling/Staffing Lists/Scheduled Retirements

I don't think the number of DAL pilots over the age of 50 is the problem with a relative seniority list. A SLI done this way may be fine today, next month or maybe next year. The problem comes from the high number of NWA pilots that will retire in the next 5 years not 5-10. Assuming age 60, I have heard it is about 1,000. The mid-level seniority guys at NWA would not get the upward movement they have been waiting for under this type of SLI

Now if an agreement could be made that, for the next 5 years, when a NWA guy retires all former NWA guys move up to fill the open slot (same for DAL retiements) may be we could have a deal. Sort of a seniority fence.

Just for info, I was hired at NWA in early 1985 and am in the low 900's. I was 35 and will be leaving in 18mos. (age 60) so I only have a toy poodle in this fight.

Godd luck to all

relative seniority
 

Other than a furlough scenarior, can someone tell me how relative seniority hurts me as a NWA guy? If I'm 10% from the top before the SLI (I wish!) and I end up 10% from the top after the SLI - how does that suck?

See above post

Northwest is wanting to preserve/gain their future retirements that outpace the current Delta model.

Thanks maddog, looks like you slipped that post in while my small mind was busy contemplating. I'm with you on the retirement at age 60. Good luck with yours!