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Old 10-30-2008, 10:07 PM   #121  
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Well, fuzzy math then. I go from 67% (a point of contention but I will be moving up to the fifty percentile within the next five years) on our current nwa list and on the DAL list, as proposed, I would be 74% of the total pilot group. It would take ten years to get back to the seniority number I would have today if we went date of hire.

As for rumors on movement. Absolutely, if DAL is willing to come to the table and meet with us I can assure we would move off of our position to a more neutral position if DAL was willing to do the same.
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Old 10-30-2008, 10:12 PM   #122  
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How do you split the baby? The two proposals are based on different ways to do a SLI. Again, how do you find middle ground? One side or the other has to come off it's basic postion and I just don't see that happening.
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Old 10-31-2008, 02:03 AM   #123  
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I trust that the negotiators are working hard this week.

I like the days of service concept. Has nothing to do with managing pre-merger expectations, but interesting none the less.
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Old 10-31-2008, 04:32 AM   #124  
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Originally Posted by Opus View Post
Okay, if that's what you want to believe then okay! But, no matter how you run the numbers I lose 1700 numbers by the DAL proposal and that is not the middle of the road by any means. If DAL is going to hold on to relative seniority argument and not move from that position then the SLI will end up in the hands of the arbitraitors and then come what may. The NWA side feels that they have a solid argument as does the DAL guys however, my point being, is that for either side to outright win would be a loss for both sides as we would have disharmony and ill will for years to come. My proposal was that we find middle ground between Relative Seniority and Date of Hire not the DAl version that relative seniority is the middle ground. For that matter if Relative Seniority is the middle ground for DALPA what then is the real DAL list. Staple?
Why do you keep referring to lost numbers? That references your DOH at NWA and that is meaningless! Compare your relative % at NWA and what it will be at Delta. That is what matters, imo. I think our proposal will be tweaked to account for your nearterm retirements and a few other things like 777 orders and the staple on the bottom will dissappear. Would relative position within 1%, accounting for nearterm retirements, be something worthy of consideration?
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Old 10-31-2008, 05:14 AM   #125  
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Well, fuzzy math then. I go from 67% (a point of contention but I will be moving up to the fifty percentile within the next five years) on our current nwa list and on the DAL list, as proposed, I would be 74% of the total pilot group. It would take ten years to get back to the seniority number I would have today if we went date of hire.

As for rumors on movement. Absolutely, if DAL is willing to come to the table and meet with us I can assure we would move off of our position to a more neutral position if DAL was willing to do the same.

I am confused on how you will move up that much unless you are counting on early retirements. NWA like Delta has no scheduled retirements the next 4 years. You also are forgetting a key point. Lets say you are at the 60% point at NWA and when the list is done you stay exactly at that point. You now will hold better and higher paying equipment on the combined list because of the new fleet makeup which will have a higher percentage of bigger equipment. Someone had posted the exact number but I believe that the average fleet size at Delta was about 20 percent larger then NWA using the fleets on 14 Apr 08. The reverse occurs for a Delta pilots at 60% on both lists. His ability to hold equipment is reduced since the overall fleet sized is reduced.
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Old 10-31-2008, 05:37 AM   #126  
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Sailing,
I guess I just don't understand why we can't find somewhere in the middle,like splitting the difference between DOH and Relative Seniority. Then we'd both be equally ****ed/happy pending one's disposition. I don't know what DALPA is thinking but I hope it doesn't go to arbitration not because I do not believe our guys didn't make great arguments, with Blouch stating that we are equals, but rather for the harmony of the next 20 years it really would not be good for either group to outright win. I.E I don't want date of hire (don't shoot me fellow NWAers) because the disharmony and ill will that would cause for the next upteen years and the same argument goes for relative seniority.

I do hope calmer heads will prevail and the two sides will just split their differences in half and then we can ***** about it over beers in AMS or CDG or NRT. I'll buy the first round.
Opus, Actually what you are posting is what I have long felt would be fair. Keep in mind that the Delta proposal last spring was a much better deal for NWA then the current table position so I am sure there is room to move. A straight DOH list kills all movement for Delta pilots for 5 to 10 years. The ratio proposed now by DALPA gives current Delta pilots extra movement via the retirements at NWA in years 5 to 10 after the merger. I do not feel either position is fare. Keep in mind however this is arbitration. You don't open for what you want. Hopefully cooler heads will prevail and they will find a middle ground.
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Old 10-31-2008, 09:02 AM   #127  
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Is it possible, Carl, that some of those "among others" you cite with Bloch's "roulette wheel" statement just as likely refer to expectations of future advancement due to retirements? IOW, a mid seniority NW pilot claiming: "All the NW retirements will allow me to be very senior in 5-7-10 years". You would be hard-pressed to justify a negative answer to that question.
That could very well be the case, which is why I added the term "among other things." I don't believe it is the case however, because attrition is a statistical certainty, unlike aircraft orders or (my personal favorite) the latest business plan. Arbitrations are a lot like criminal and civil trials. 98% of what the lawyers bring is pure BS and opinion, with 2% actual facts and irrefutable statistics. When those 2% items come along, judges listen. And by the way, the only guy that used the term "will" with regard to his future, was a DAL guy. I've heard no NWA guy say anything similar.

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On a more general note, I can tell you that 210 DL pilots in the top 1400 positions simply will not "fly".
Again, the arbitrators probably aren't going to give much weight to your argument of DOH "simply not flying."

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And I find it hard to believe 2 of 3 arbitrators would disagree, given the uncertainties of the future of this industry.
You could be right, but you could very well be wrong. DAL's proposal that was based on future growth estimates is definitely a "vagary." DAL's proposal was also based on a 3 day trashing of NWA as being a dead airline with no prospects except going backwards. The arbitrators clearly thought those 3 days were wasted by the DAL team, when he called this a merger of equals.

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Now, we can speculate on the gargantuan and detailed fences that you might think would assuage our concerns, but they won't, DL brings 1100 senior international widebody captain positions to the merger, NW brings 500. 210 of 1400 is extreme, to put it mildly, regardless of what your blue and red charts show.
The blue and red charts are irrefutable. The arbitrators will give them great weight - and that goes for BOTH proposals. Under the DAL proposal the charts show nothing but DAL at the top, now and in the future. Under the NWA proposal, lots of NWA guys start at the top but they don't stay very long before the charts show very few NWA at the top after 10 years. Either way, DAL guys are at the top. That's just the way the demographic works.

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DL has not put on their rebuttal case yet, (and they have full access to all the details of the NW proposal, and I don't) I would imagine they will find many uncontemplated (by us) faults w/NW's proposal.
Your lawyers are very good, in my opinion. I'm sure they'll put on a great rebuttal, but they will not punch a single hole in the blue/red chart. If they could have, they would have during their cross examination of our guys who presented the chart.

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Speculating on ever-increasing-in-complexity DOH fences, (which ultimately leads to an actual non-merger of pilot groups, to keep everyone safe) is futile.
It's not speculation, and it's not futile. There is a 50% chance that the NWA proposal will be adopted. Just as there is a 50% chance the DAL proposal will be adopted. If you can't sleep at night with that reality sharing your slumber, then continue to live in denial.

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The final solution, whether negotiated or arbitrated, will expose both pilot groups equally to those "vagaries of the future".
I agree with you 100%.

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DOH w/fences does not expose both groups equally to that risk.
With the 10 year fence, it comes far far closer than the DAL proposal. The DAL proposal is all reward to DAL pilots and all risk to NWA pilots.

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Old 10-31-2008, 09:04 AM   #128  
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The DL argument now is relative seniority by equipment with the DC-9s in a separate category at the bottom. Widebody, narrowbody, DC-9. DL has the large majority of the large aircraft so that plan puts a larger number of DL guys near the top. Straight relative seniority would be in the middle of DOH and relative seniority by equipment.
It would definitely be a move toward the middle.

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Old 10-31-2008, 09:09 AM   #129  
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Opus, I suspect hawaii's statement that DL's position is now staight relative (vs. status and category) seniority is his guess or opinion of a plausible DL position in the negotiations. But if that were true, it would represent a movement toward compromise on the part of DL. I have yet to hear of any compromise (rumored, speculated, guessed, or opined) on the NW side, have you heard of any? --not trying to stir anything up here, just wondering if there are any rumors, etc. on your side.
I'm hearing a move toward ALOS (Adjusted Length Of Service). Our strike time would count against us at the top, and furlough time would count against guys at the middle and bottom. ALOS treats the bottom a lot more fairly because no single group occupies the bottom. Dates of hire in the bottom third will still be skewed toward a DAL advantage, but not quite as bad as the current DAL proposal.

Interesting rumor...

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Old 10-31-2008, 09:11 AM   #130  
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How do you split the baby? The two proposals are based on different ways to do a SLI. Again, how do you find middle ground? One side or the other has to come off it's basic postion and I just don't see that happening.
ALOS could be a way to begin.

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