Well, fuzzy math then. I go from 67% (a point of contention but I will be moving up to the fifty percentile within the next five years) on our current nwa list and on the DAL list, as proposed, I would be 74% of the total pilot group. It would take ten years to get back to the seniority number I would have today if we went date of hire.

As for rumors on movement. Absolutely, if DAL is willing to come to the table and meet with us I can assure we would move off of our position to a more neutral position if DAL was willing to do the same.

How do you split the baby? The two proposals are based on different ways to do a SLI. Again, how do you find middle ground? One side or the other has to come off it's basic postion and I just don't see that happening.

I trust that the negotiators are working hard this week.

I like the days of service concept. Has nothing to do with managing pre-merger expectations, but interesting none the less.

Why do you keep referring to lost numbers? That references your DOH at NWA and that is meaningless! Compare your relative % at NWA and what it will be at Delta. That is what matters, imo. I think our proposal will be tweaked to account for your nearterm retirements and a few other things like 777 orders and the staple on the bottom will dissappear. Would relative position within 1%, accounting for nearterm retirements, be something worthy of consideration?

I am confused on how you will move up that much unless you are counting on early retirements. NWA like Delta has no scheduled retirements the next 4 years. You also are forgetting a key point. Lets say you are at the 60% point at NWA and when the list is done you stay exactly at that point. You now will hold better and higher paying equipment on the combined list because of the new fleet makeup which will have a higher percentage of bigger equipment. Someone had posted the exact number but I believe that the average fleet size at Delta was about 20 percent larger then NWA using the fleets on 14 Apr 08. The reverse occurs for a Delta pilots at 60% on both lists. His ability to hold equipment is reduced since the overall fleet sized is reduced.

Opus, Actually what you are posting is what I have long felt would be fair. Keep in mind that the Delta proposal last spring was a much better deal for NWA then the current table position so I am sure there is room to move. A straight DOH list kills all movement for Delta pilots for 5 to 10 years. The ratio proposed now by DALPA gives current Delta pilots extra movement via the retirements at NWA in years 5 to 10 after the merger. I do not feel either position is fare. Keep in mind however this is arbitration. You don't open for what you want. Hopefully cooler heads will prevail and they will find a middle ground.

That could very well be the case, which is why I added the term "among other things." I don't believe it is the case however, because attrition is a statistical certainty, unlike aircraft orders or (my personal favorite) the latest business plan. Arbitrations are a lot like criminal and civil trials. 98% of what the lawyers bring is pure BS and opinion, with 2% actual facts and irrefutable statistics. When those 2% items come along, judges listen. And by the way, the only guy that used the term "will" with regard to his future, was a DAL guy. I've heard no NWA guy say anything similar.

Again, the arbitrators probably aren't going to give much weight to your argument of DOH "simply not flying." ;)

You could be right, but you could very well be wrong. DAL's proposal that was based on future growth estimates is definitely a "vagary." DAL's proposal was also based on a 3 day trashing of NWA as being a dead airline with no prospects except going backwards. The arbitrators clearly thought those 3 days were wasted by the DAL team, when he called this a merger of equals.

The blue and red charts are irrefutable. The arbitrators will give them great weight - and that goes for BOTH proposals. Under the DAL proposal the charts show nothing but DAL at the top, now and in the future. Under the NWA proposal, lots of NWA guys start at the top but they don't stay very long before the charts show very few NWA at the top after 10 years. Either way, DAL guys are at the top. That's just the way the demographic works.

Your lawyers are very good, in my opinion. I'm sure they'll put on a great rebuttal, but they will not punch a single hole in the blue/red chart. If they could have, they would have during their cross examination of our guys who presented the chart.

It's not speculation, and it's not futile. There is a 50% chance that the NWA proposal will be adopted. Just as there is a 50% chance the DAL proposal will be adopted. If you can't sleep at night with that reality sharing your slumber, then continue to live in denial.

I agree with you 100%.

With the 10 year fence, it comes far far closer than the DAL proposal. The DAL proposal is all reward to DAL pilots and all risk to NWA pilots.

Carl

It would definitely be a move toward the middle.

Carl

I'm hearing a move toward ALOS (Adjusted Length Of Service). Our strike time would count against us at the top, and furlough time would count against guys at the middle and bottom. ALOS treats the bottom a lot more fairly because no single group occupies the bottom. Dates of hire in the bottom third will still be skewed toward a DAL advantage, but not quite as bad as the current DAL proposal.

Interesting rumor...

Carl

ALOS could be a way to begin.

Carl

That deal last spring was dead on arrival. If our guys are telling the truth, it was every bit as extreme as the current DAL proposal. If you think movement toward the spring proposal is movement, you are greatly mistaken.

Without fences, you would be right. With the 10 year fence in the NWA proposal, virtually all movement in pre-merger DAL aircraft would go to DAL pilots for 10 years. The fact that so many DAL guys continue to pretend that the 10 year fence either doesn't exist or is some sort of NWA trick, really keeps you from looking at this objectively.

Carl

Like "Super Premium flying." :)

Scoop

Interesting.......what would that do to the "saw toothing" of the DOH list? I've heard that "they" were looking at ways to work "year group management" and this may be it?

Exactly.

Carl - the non-adjective king.

It smooths out the saw-tooths a little, but it doesn't cure it.

Carl

Carl, The Delta position last spring was a straight ratio. It was put in writing by our MEC chairman that no pilot on either list would move more then 1/2 of a percent from their current relative position. Your MEC later put out a letter confirming that. The proposal now on the table is a ratio by equipment. Very different and not nearly as good a deal as the spring offer. Your MEC seems to put out a lot of strange things and later change their mind or recant them.
When I posted here that our MEC chairman notified and talked with your chairman many NWA pilots posted that their MEC absolutely denied any contact of any type!!!!!!! Then Stevens is put under Oath and the whole story changes. Even your roadshows put out lots of wrong info on the Delta contract in areas such as medical, flight hour caps and work rules. Slowly that is getting corrected but some has become urban legend at NWA. Just last week at LGA I spoke with a NWA pilot who was concerned about his paycut when we went to a hard 75 hour cap. When I explained to him that we have not had a 75 hour cap in many years and in fact he can easily fly up to the FAR maximums he was astounded and felt deceived since he said it was put out at a MEC meeting. I just got off the phone with a friend at NWA. He summed it up like this. "You Delta guys are going to have to understand that NWA is a culture of hate and distrust." The constant infighting with the red and green book MEC members has hindered this entire merger process at every step. Even today you still have observers watching each other at the hearings. The Delta guys kind of laugh about it now and have lots of names for them. Politicos, observers, watchers, spooks ect...

You are free to characterize the NWA MEC and the DAL MEC however you wish, but you sound naive. There's also that sound of Kool-Aid sloshing around that seems to be a recurring problem. I have a healthy dose of skepticism for all sides until there is proof beyond all doubt, thus I'm not able to say I know very much for certain about this.

And by the way, everything in bold font above is BS.

Carl

Carl,

One of my basic objections to the NW proposed DOH list is that any new equipment that comes on property will be filled by a former NW pilot and could very well move a DL pilot who is currently on that equipment down and possibly off that equipment.

Example: Per the NW proposed fence, I believe 290 777 capt positions are fenced. Say in 5 years we now have 350 capt positions on the 777. They will all be filled by NW pilots because of a DOH list and NW getting 1500 of the top 1800 positions(approx) and thereby inhibiting any movement for the DL side and pushing DL pilots that were already on that equipment more junior.

Now these aircraft are not on firm order but our agreement with Boeing is different than most and has been explained before. Your Merger committee also wants to fence off 315 Capt positions on the 787 that wont be delivered for, at the least, a year and probably not until 2010.

I guess my problem comes from being able to envision any new widebody capt positions going to former NW pilots, and I will qualify it, ALMOST exclusively and thereby hindering any pre-merger DL pilots advancement to these positions that would have been available to them.

Denny

Carl,
I agree that there is a lot of Kool-aid being sloshed around at both sides but especially from the recent DAL hires. Being ex-military I was a kool-aid drinker and thought I was actually a valued employee - right up until I was furloughed, with a no-furlough clause intact. At that point the kool-aid developed a bitter after taste that still remains and I refuse to touch the stuff. That is when it dawned on me that I was just a cost to be minimized so that management could increase the size of their bonus, compenstaion, thievery etc. I am convinced that for a while DAL was not being run to maximize profit, or even minimize losses, but to further enrich management. I hope those days are gone but I will not believe managements words until they are backed up with actions.
Contrary to our management, I think our union guys have been straight shooters all along and since we have no red book - green book rift I tend to give them the benefit of the doubt if their is a discrepancy between the two MEC's, granted I am not an unbiased observer.

Scoop

That of course would be unacceptable. Thankfully, the NWA fences don't say what you think they say. Here are the relevant excerpts from the NWA proposal: (paragraph 5A is where the 280 777 capt positions and all the other protected positions are listed)


I hope the 315 figure of 787 capts comports with the current 777 capt list plus all 777 on firm order. If it doesn't, that would need to be corrected by NWALPA.

I hope what I've posted alleviates your misconceptions Denny. As I keep saying, the NWA 10 year fence protects DAL pilot's seniority for 10 years, AND shares any growth on either side on a 1 for 1 basis.

Carl

Great post Scoop. Believe it or not, there is no more red/green stuff going on with the committees now that they've found a new adversary. My biased view is that our guys have been very straight forward with us as well.

Carl

Denny, I'm not going to pretend that the NWA DOH proposal is going to go through, but there is a provision in the proposal that will keep movement happening on the DAL side for growth aircraft. Orders firmed up and delivered after DCC are treated as growth aircraft that are shared 1:1. So, your number of 290 protected captains would grow over time if and when additional aircraft are delivered.

Thanks for that. NWA is 42% of our size, but gets 50% of the growth. NWA has the fleets most at risk for parking, but because of DOH gets protections. NWA has the most paper airplanes (wanna bet whether or not any of those current 787's EVER show up on the property due to performance issues?) but want credit for any 777's as replacements. NWA currently has substantially fewer widebodies as a percentage of fleet, but gets access to the Delta order book.

The merger is done. The SLI is ugly. I hope the arbitrators are wise men.

Carl,

ALOS takes your strike time away from your DOH proposal? If so that would really put a dent in your time. What a month or two? If I'm wrong, please expound. My money says relative seniority tweaked for retirements(pilots and aircraft) and fleets (%of widebody etc)

Cog

Carl,

My opinion only, but I think there is NO WAY the arbitors or our teams would sign off on a 10 yr. fence. I think that RA would just not accept it if it somehow got to him. A fence that long illustrates how "out there" DOH is.

Cog

.......................

...........

The fence is so we can enjoy our retirements like you enjoyed yours.

PS
Fences are very common to mergers, its not "out there".

Good point. The 1 for 1 ratio should probably be changed to 7 for 5 to better reflect the overall ratio.

BS...your opinion only.

Arbitrators don't place much stock in "bets."

Nothing other than complete surrender by NWA will please you slowplay, that is clear. Given our past reputation for being willing to fight - you should know better.

Carl

A month lost for the top guys and a number of years lost for the bottom guys because of furloughs.

Carl

Nobody knows how they will rule. But understand that RA has no say in this matter. The SLI acceptance letter of agreement and the new JPWA over-wrote many items of the former DAL PWA. RA cannot refuse to accept the SLI that is produced by arbitration or negotiated settlement.

Carl

Capt.,
Do you think RA is going to accept massive 10 yr. fences which complicate his ability to efficiently deploy his aircraft AND crews where marketing deems best? Yes, he has the power to reject any SLI that unduly harms the efficient deployment of his aircraft and crews. Finally, what retirements are you referring to? I believe its been shown that only a few hundred Delta guys who retired early 4-6 yrs. ago would still be on the property. An urban myth. The fences are in place to try an manipulate the DOH proposal into something that 2 out of 3 arbitors would agree on. At what point do we stop looking forward as previous carriers and take the good with the bad as one company? This has all been hashed and rehashed but future orders and future aircraft retirements being treated as "uncertain future events" could really negatively impact pre-Delta pilots at the top and the bottom of the list but pre-NWA guys want full credit for their retirements in the form of DOH and large fences. There has got to be a better way. Relative position/seniority with adjustments is more fair and easier to adjust, imo.

BTW what is ...............?

I do not think that two out of three arbitrators are going to award anything near a 10 year fence.

Urban myth that the early retirements have much if anything to do with the current seniority if the DAL pilots. It matters not how many times you hear this, or how much proof you are shown, you will still believe otherwise so why am I wasting my time? We "enjoy" our "seniority" now because of massive international expansion... And you want to enjoy our expansion at our expense without being responsible for the POTENTIAL (and I hope the 9s are here for 25 more years) fleet reduction due to DC9s... IT's not up to us anymore anyway, and I truly welcome all the former NWA brothers aboard. BTW... do ya'll have many female pilots over there?

Oh... and the plural of ya'll is "all ya'll". If ya wanna blend in, do not say you all... dead giveaway... you've been warned :cool:

I disagree, RA can refuse the list by proving to the arbitrators that the SLI award causes great financial harm of hardship to the corporation. Note the word "great" not "minor."

What?!!!!! Have I just been transported to a parallel universe?!!! Am I now Capt. Kirk again?:D One NW guy disagreeing with another? Where's my smellin' salts!!!!!! Oh yeah, and I'm 20/30 years younger!!!!:D:D

Denny/Kirk

Nosmo is probably right. It's been a while since I read that letter. The term "great financial harm" might indeed be in there.

Carl

Actually, the phrase is "significantly increase the company's costs".

For the purposes of the Delta/Northwest Merger only and notwithstanding Section 1 D. 8. b. 1) of the PWA, the Company will accept the integrated seniority list established by the Association, provided that none of the conditions and restrictions therein 1) require a system flush whereby pilots may displace any other pilots from the latter’s position; 2) require a pilot to be compensated for flying not performed (e.g. differential pay for a position not flown); 3) bar a pilot who, at the time of implementation of an integrated seniority list, is in the process of completing or who has completed qualification training for a new position (e.g., B-777 Captain or A-319 First Officer) from being assigned to the position for which he has been trained, regardless of his relative standing on the integrated seniority list; or 4) significantly increase the Company's costs.

Check,

What document is this clip from?

Carl

If NWA did get the A380, then the term "super" would apply. Even ICAO agrees.

The ICAO also advised pilots to use the suffix "Super" when communicating with air traffic control to distinguish the A380 from other "Heavy" aircraft.[95]

Airbus A380 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia