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Old 12-12-2008, 10:45 PM   #141  
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Originally Posted by PackTrip View Post
...but generally speaking, what I have posted is accurate - negligible difference in attrition for the first ten years for all of us...and a nice bump in the numbers from year 12 onward (For those of you that have that many years left).

Remember also that it was only in the last three hiring cycles where guys older than about 34 were even hired.
Pack,

Let me begin my response my saying that I am at peace with the senoirity list. I am not complaining, it is what it is, and there is nothing I could do about it even if it wasn't.

But, with that being said -- in a wierd, round-about way -- the reason why most NWA guys aren't really thrilled with the argument that DAL's retirements start to exceed NWA's in 10 to 12 years, is because alot if not most of the NWA guys are the ones who are going to be the ones leaving.

It's like you are telling them/us that things will get better for you after you are gone because there will be more movement coming from the Delta side after you are gone.

When they hear that, I guarantee they say "great!" and make a face that looks like this =>

It's kind of like telling the bachelor at his bachelor party that the strippers will be back to work the week after his wedding. (I have no idea where that one come from. I'd better go hug my wife.)

New K Now

Last edited by newKnow; 12-12-2008 at 11:22 PM.
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Old 12-13-2008, 08:32 AM   #142  
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PackTrip, I appreciate your efforts to post these numbers. I do. For someone who is so into numbers (as I am myself), it'd hurt a lot less if you stopped trying to trivialize the difference in retirements. It doesn't take a statistician to see that those retirement numbers when changed into percentages represent 20% of the premerger NWA list and only 10% of the premerger DAL list over the next 10 years. In other words NWA had double the attrition coming when looked at with percentages, which is the only accurate way to view these things. I won't even get into the medical & pension as motivation to retire at 60 debate but that would have accelerated the NWA side even more.

The reason DAL retirements start to exceed NWA's so much eventually is simply because there's hardly any NWA pilots left. To see a true comparision you'd have to change the numbers into a percentage of remaining premerger groups. You'll see 10-20 years from now it doesn't take many NWA retirements at all to match DALs attrition as a value of percentage of remaining pilots from each group.

I, and many other NWA guys, lost a TON of career progression and that caused me to lose sleep a few nights so far this week. Just to give you an idea I was slated to retire in the single digits, now I'm projected to retire around 300. I would have been a narrowbody CA in about 4 years now I'll be lucky if it's 10. Still not shabby but we can all agree it is a significant blow to career expectations, a blow that starts at SOC. I'm taking the advice of the wise old men on here and looking on the brightside and trying not to dwell on it, but do us a favor and stop pretending DAL guys had anywhere near the short term attrition NWA guys had. It's insulting to our intelligence, most of us have already crunched the numbers and know better.

Now here's to hoping we all benefit for our sacrifices and turn this new airline into the best airline in the world.
Good post. I would have retired premerger 290 range. Post merger I retire in 1260 range. Anyone that tries to tell me that the difference in those 2 numbers is made up for in size or something is crazy. To make it worse, we got no credit for the approx 250 NWA guys that have retired since this started. Had our current number used for integreation been adjusted for these 250 guys leaving it would have moved me up the combined list 643 numbers. That is hard to swallow, guys gone before the merger but getting the move up after list integration. Well now everyone moves up 250 when the list is redone. Just another huge loss in QOL and Bucks. No slam against the DAL guys, but you will never realize the losses on the NWA side because unless you live it you can't know it and that's not just SLI related but also huge things we lost with our contract going away. Enough beating the drum. Time to look forward.

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Old 12-13-2008, 09:49 AM   #143  
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Good post. I would have retired premerger 290 range. Post merger I retire in 1260 range. Anyone that tries to tell me that the difference in those 2 numbers is made up for in size or something is crazy. To make it worse, we got no credit for the approx 250 NWA guys that have retired since this started. Had our current number used for integreation been adjusted for these 250 guys leaving it would have moved me up the combined list 643 numbers. That is hard to swallow, guys gone before the merger but getting the move up after list integration. Well now everyone moves up 250 when the list is redone. Just another huge loss in QOL and Bucks. No slam against the DAL guys, but you will never realize the losses on the NWA side because unless you live it you can't know it and that's not just SLI related but also huge things we lost with our contract going away. Enough beating the drum. Time to look forward.

keenster
They only used pilots on the property on November 1 to build the list. I think NW only resequenced your list in July and January, so your number was the same as it was in July. I don't think they integrated in any retired pilots so you got credit for all that attrition.
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Old 12-13-2008, 02:50 PM   #144  
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But, with that being said -- in a wierd, round-about way -- the reason why most NWA guys aren't really thrilled with the argument that DAL's retirements start to exceed NWA's in 10 to 12 years, is because alot if not most of the NWA guys are the ones who are going to be the ones leaving.

New K Now [/quote]
New: I agree and sympathize with your position. The fate of the age-demographically identical 1985 hires from both airlines is the prime example. The most senior (Sept.) 1985 DL hire is slotted in at 409 on the combined list. The NW Sept.1985 hire is slotted in at 2892 on the combined list, a difference of 2483 positions between two identical hire dates and (statistically) identical ages. Though both retained almost their exact relative seniority percentage, (which is only fair) no doubt the DL pilot will enjoy somewhat increased opportunity for advancement (he already easily holds 777 capt.) in the next 10 years due to NW attrition, while the equivalent hire date NW pilot will suffer somewhat decreased opportunity (compared to stand-alone) based on the same (NW) attrition (he still could hold or will shortly be able to hold, in theory, 767ER WB capt. at DL)
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Old 12-14-2008, 02:53 PM   #145  
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Let me begin my response my saying that I am at peace with the senoirity list. I am not complaining, it is what it is, and there is nothing I could do about it even if it wasn't.
Didn't you say you actually did better than both proposals? Kind of easy to be at peace with the list when that happens....
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Old 12-14-2008, 03:19 PM   #146  
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Didn't you say you actually did better than both proposals? Kind of easy to be at peace with the list when that happens....
No. No. I said I didn't do as bad as most of my NWA counterparts. Which for me means that instead of having 1700+ DAL pilots who were hired after me be senior to me, I only have a few hundred. So, I'm still off a few hundred numbers from the DOH proposal.

It was our late '94 & early '95 hires did a little better if you go by DOH.

I won't even get into retirements. But, with that being said. I am at peace with the list. But, you have a point. If I had 1700+ made senior to me I might not be so concilliatory. Touche'.
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Old 12-14-2008, 05:28 PM   #147  
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PackTrip, I appreciate your efforts to post these numbers. I do. For someone who is so into numbers (as I am myself), it'd hurt a lot less if you stopped trying to trivialize the difference in retirements. It doesn't take a statistician to see that those retirement numbers when changed into percentages represent 20% of the premerger NWA list and only 10% of the premerger DAL list over the next 10 years. In other words NWA had double the attrition coming when looked at with percentages, which is the only accurate way to view these things. I won't even get into the medical & pension as motivation to retire at 60 debate but that would have accelerated the NWA side even more.

The reason DAL retirements start to exceed NWA's so much eventually is simply because there's hardly any NWA pilots left. To see a true comparision you'd have to change the numbers into a percentage of remaining premerger groups. You'll see 10-20 years from now it doesn't take many NWA retirements at all to match DALs attrition as a value of percentage of remaining pilots from each group.

I, and many other NWA guys, lost a TON of career progression and that caused me to lose sleep a few nights so far this week. Just to give you an idea I was slated to retire in the single digits, now I'm projected to retire around 300. I would have been a narrowbody CA in about 4 years now I'll be lucky if it's 10. Still not shabby but we can all agree it is a significant blow to career expectations, a blow that starts at SOC. I'm taking the advice of the wise old men on here and looking on the brightside and trying not to dwell on it, but do us a favor and stop pretending DAL guys had anywhere near the short term attrition NWA guys had. It's insulting to our intelligence, most of us have already crunched the numbers and know better.

Now here's to hoping we all benefit for our sacrifices and turn this new airline into the best airline in the world.

Excellent post. Seriously. I assure you guys I am not trying to trivialize anything...I'm just trying to understand the impact of it all on all of us.

I think a lot of it has to do with the information you guys have. Example: On Dec 8th when the ISL came out, DAL pilots got a seniority list: Last name, seniority number, employee number.

You guys got that color coded jobber with all that plus date of hire, pre and post merger percentage, original seniority, and equipment.

For myself, all I have access to in the Delta system is my Sen # on the old (DAL standalone list) by year and the total number of age 65 retirements each year.

You guys have that easyboard with all the cool analysis of percentages. I agree, percentages are everything.

I full understand what you are saying...even if we had the same retirement numbers, that fact that you guys were a smaller carrier meant that you all would have moved up percentage wise much quicker as a stand alone...but then there were still the wild-cards: DC-9 future and 747 freighter future...

Anyway, no offense intended...I just like numbers and would love a nice fat spreadsheet with all sorts of cool data that I could play with...but in the end - it doesn't matter one bit: It is a done deal, my number is what it is, our negotiators on BOTH sides FAILED to reach an agreement, so we have a decision by a 3 man impartial panel that has set our fate for the rest of our careers.

I'm cool with it all and looking forward to hoisting up tall cool ones with you guys.

Last edited by PackTrip; 12-14-2008 at 05:46 PM.
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Old 12-15-2008, 08:13 AM   #148  
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When the updated list comes out we will all be 300-350 numbers more senior but as with Nwa lately, except for last spring, we would have attrition without hiring. I really don't know how the numbers are going to work out before soc. I mean we're having retirements as we speak yet no hiring is taking place. I thought I understood that most of capacity reduction was going to be at the RJ level but I hope it is not going to be the case where 1500 Nwa guys leave but the airline becomes 1500 numbers smaller.
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Old 12-15-2008, 09:27 AM   #149  
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Opus,

I'm curious what seniority list you base the 300-350 numbers on. My understanding is the arbitrators used 1 Nov 08 seniority lists from both sides and integrated those numbers which would account for all retirements prior to 1 Nov. Do you think that 300-350 have retired since then? I'm just trying to get a handle on what to expect.

On the Delta side, we get an updated seniority list every month posted on the Delta net with in the first few days. Anybody have any idea when this will be the combined list? Thanks,

Denny
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Old 12-15-2008, 09:49 AM   #150  
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We only update on July 1 and January 1 ergo the list that was used was based on the July 1 numbers. We had a perp program, plus others just retired since July 1. Nwa is not going to apply the work rules until bid period 5 which should help their staffing of "300-400" pilot shortfall but we still have attrition going on right now without anybody being replaced. I just don't see how the numbers are going to work in the spring and summer.

Last edited by Opus; 12-15-2008 at 09:50 AM. Reason: typo
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