Mesa's stock
 

:)Has been climbing for the past few weeks it is up to.22 this afternoon. I bought a bunch the day of the court deal against Delta, it has doubled so far.
Anybody have any thoughts, I know how everybody feels about Mesa so let's not get into that I just would like to know what some peoples thoughts are especially Mesa folks about when to get out. Would hate to miss a twenty banger.:)

Do we have to make a declaration every time Mesa's stock moves up 5%? If you've noticed Mesas stock has been on a steady decline since last year and plus or minus 5% the last 6 months. It's all day trading at this point. Good luck.

I agree day trade it and DO NOT HOLD IT OVER NIGHT

JO is the devil

Mesa's not really a day trade stock. More of a swing trade type. I can't imagine day trading mesa as it's often flat and impossible to predict using conventional indicators and technical analysis. BAC is a good day trade for example.

I think the recent movement may have to do with the "new 700's" rumor.

Agreed :)

whats the 700 rumor?

ya but i would take a penny jump

Money to be made
 

:)I would have to diagree it has already doubled in the last two weeks and my program is projecting a bust out due to volume.

I have never tied money to be made to whether or not i liked the company.

From someone ready to get furloughed and having a strong feeling about where the contracts are heading, I'd probably not recommend holding onto this stock... especially come October.. but for those who made some money on it, congrats, I wish I'd bought a ton at .02 or whatever it was at!!

To answer your question on the "700 rumor", it is not a rumor. Paul Foley came into our ground school and spelled it out. Mesa has a clause in our United contract that allows Mesa to add 10 additional 700's. There are only two huge hurdles that Mesa has to overcome before we can fill those 700 slots.
1. 700's are not easy to find, thus not cheap.
2. Mesa's credit sucks so financing is virtually impossible. The key is the word virtually. It can be done but numerous other factors need to fall in place first. Almost all of which are outside Mesa's control.

With that said I highly doubt that news has anything to do with the fluctuation of Mesa stock. It has been known for many years now and is not something new. The small rise in stock price probably has more to do with investors trying to make a quick buck on cheap stock and less to do with informed trading.

This kind of movement is not simply 'quick buck on cheap stock'. The market share has grown substantially and volume has been through the roof the last 3 days. I don't believe I've seen the market share above 20mil in the last year. It stands about 35mil right now.

The 700 issue will make or break them with UAL. Two fundamental keys to their survival are:

1. Can OJ hang on long enough for the economy to recover sufficiently for the lenders to loosen up?

2. Will UAL wait that long in any event?

I agree with your first point but on the second point its not just Mesa in trouble. Part of the reason stated for tough financing was the strength of both United and US Airways. They are both in financial turmoil and without some strength in our codeshares no one will hand over money. These are some of the outside troubles plaguing Mesa that they cant control.
To be truthful its not just Mesa that needs to worry about this. Anyone that codeshares with a Major in trouble needs to worry. Just because your airline might have more cash in the bank doesn't do it any good if your source of income drys up over night. This is a very fluid time for the airlines and in the next year there will be a lot of changes, some good and some bad.

Sold my shares at 0.21

Absolutely true...there's only one thing really wrong with SKW: UAL

Volume may be caused by short sellers. Dont assume it is faith in the company. Short Sellers can cause the stock to drop 50% in a day if they want.

It's stupid to have a short position on a stock that has gone up in value 40-50% some days. Sure it has come back down an equal measure other days but you are gambling
1) On the day that you have to deliver the shares the value didn't go up
2) Good news causes the price to spike, either temporarily or permanently.

What if I decided to short 100,000 shares of Mesa today. At an average price of 20 cents thats 20 grand. I borrow 100k of Mesa stock from someone. I have 3 days to deliver the 100,000 shares at a price of 20 cents. If my guess is right and the price drops to 10 cents then I would get 10,000$, minus any margin fees or comissions. If they declare BK and the stock drops to zero then I made the entire sum of 20 grand.

HOWEVER

If I am wrong there is NO LIMIT to how much money I can lose. If the price doubles I have to buy 100,000 shares at 40 cents -- I lose 20,000$. If there is a news flash that Mesa picked up new flying and the price goes to a dollar, which isn't an unreasonable price point for it then I lose _$80,000_.

This is why I never understood short sales. With most things the bigger the risk the bigger the reward, but with this the bigger the risk the smaller the reward. At least if you just buy Mesa stock the only thing you'll potentially lose is the money you put in -- if a short sale goes bad for you you'll lose all that and then more.

Right now Mesa has about a 1.5% short interest which is half of what Delta's percentage is, which shows you that people, smart people, don't short such voliatile stocks.