flapshalfspeed

Consolidation at the regional level is a good thing in the long run for anyone who is not a lifer--if wage pressure continues to squeeze margins, and all the regionals start gobbling each other up like rats in a barrel, the 2-3 big players left over will have the market share and price-authority to secure highly-lucrative and stable contracts from the legacies.

Presuming we protect the 1500 hour rule for another couple of industry cycles, those 2-3 big mega-regionals won't have to worry about the past threat of a renegade low-baller like JO or Hulas underbidding them just to get a foot in the door, because any low-ball attempt at grabbing some flying won't be able to afford enough pilots to staff any fleet large enough to cover overhead, maintenance, and insurance expenses.

IMHO Mesa is already experiencing something similar to my last sentence: they low-balled UAL, tried grabbing a chunk of E-Jets large enough to cover the engine repair costs on the 900s on razor-thin margins, and hoped and prayed the quick-upgrade/shiny-jet carrot could get enough pilots in fast enough to keep the steam going before the music stopped. It worked for a couple of years, but wage pressure is not falling--it is rising.

This contract should buy JO enough time and staffing to squeeze the engine repair costs out of your margins on your current/anticipated fleet size--otherwise he wouldn't have agreed to it (unless his plan is to enter Chapter 11 to get out of the engine repair costs, which is equally as plausible). Your Captain payscale in the TA, while below industry average, will certainly sway some junior guys to stay longer waiting on a legacy versus hopping to a LCC/ACMI op immediately. The whole TA seems designed as a band-aid until those engine repair costs are covered, but who really knows.

Just thinking out loud in response to your comments.

Purpleanga

I doubt that mainline will ever do the flying in house. Even the wholly owned are basically B scale pilots for mainline guys, it's not really in hoise flying. Even if a Mesa CA averages 100 an hour and the FO 60, that is still way below the pay for mainline crew. Not to mention the cheaper operating costs of the 175, maintenance, etc. Under the most expensive days for Mesa it will stil be cheaper than mainline. I can see mainline buying up more Regionals to control things like operation and pilot labor but they are still in desperate need of being able to fly their regional feed. I think it's as simple as that, they may act like they don't need you to scare you but without the pilots they can't make any money. Ask for what you're worth. Also, United and American have no problem in giving JO more money to deal with the pilot shortage. They understand it's the cost of doing business now. It's not an accident so many Regionals have upped the pay and it's not because they're kind.

wt93205

Every contract there has been some excuse by JO as to why he couldn't pay more money yet he has money to lobby against the 1500 hour rule. You need to rob him of this money so he does not get it overturned.

So his excuse this time is engine repair costs. 2 years ago when it was voted down it was engine repair costs. He wanted 2 years to scale up the pay rates because of the engine swaps coming due and apparently over the next 2 years now it is still an issue? Why didn't he say he needed 4 years, 2 years ago for engine swaps? Need I remind you JO just had 2 years under the 2008 contract saving even more money then he would have if the last TA passed. Should have paid those engines off and then some. Before that it was the economy, and before that freedom airlines that was his doing. This time engines are by far the lamest excuse I have heard. That is JO's issue (if real) and purely JO's. Ignore his excuses...

Amazing how people forget that management factors this in when they negotiate a contract with mainline. Apparently per the brainwashed pilots that think this, JO factored it in that the pilots would take the pay cut to pay for engines. Again, he needed 2 years, 2 years ago, and now another 2 years? I am starting to think the Mesa pilots are really really hard on engines and need to take a pay cut to help re-coupe the loses JO is taking from your poor engine management...being sarcastic.

Funny how Mesa is not public... He can blame it on anything he wants and people just believe him.

Purpleanga

It makes you wonder what JOs angle is. You'd think with supply and demand not in his favor he would offer a yes contract considering new AC are still yet to be delivered with less pilots. Maybe they just plan on offering bigger bonuses. Unless he's really delusional that a new below average contract would bring in more pilots.

avi8tor614

I'll add fuel to this fire. Mainline meaning UA and AA can't afford to take back the flying. Not because of money but because they can't train fast enough. I know United has slowed training way down because there training crews are flying the lines for the summer. Not sure about AA. I'm assuming they are in same boat.

Skyler02

Good point.

Even more leverage on our side to get 2017 market compensation.

The reason this is more leverage is because these airplanes HAVE to be flying. One way or another, they have to pay enough to keep pilots flying them. It's up to them to decide how they want to make that happen.

It's up to us to stand up and get the livable wage we should have been getting all along.

As a reminder - 2017 market rates don't even bring us up to par with other regionals. Substantial retention bonuses and affordable medical insurance at other regionals still leave us far behind.

I appreciate all the work our negotiators have done. We are getting closer guys!

I would like to see a clause that any bonus offered to new hires, is offered to ALL pilots on the seniority list. The way it should be.

calmwinds

Instead of increasing lines, as normally is done in the summer, Mesa is decreasing lines. Regionals with better pilot coverage will simply pick up our shortage.

There is a reason SW has not abandoned their IAH base and is set up in ORD with 200 excess E175 pilots. SW is expecting Mesa to fail and to swoop in, like they have in all the other United bases, and pick up the flying. United has to be a bit reluctant to put all their eggs in the SW basket, but at some point they will.

Out Of Trim

He will offer a YES contract, but only if we force him to do it.

Skyler02

Exactly. The flying will go to the airlines that can staff. The airlines that will be able to staff going forward, are the airlines that pay well, have good work rules, medical insurance, etc.

Sumtinwong

I agree. Mainline will never bring this regional flying in house. I keep hearing guys saying they hope we get bought up by a major and simply by proxy become mainline. Never. Gonna. Happen.

It doesn't matter if it cost more to pay a regional to operate these aircraft then it does to bring it in house. That may be the case in the future, but mainline will want to limit their long term exposure. They love this model because if competition grows in the industry (it will), or there is another economic downturn (there will be), they can simply reduce their cost and cancel these bonus programs. Its about the long game guys and gals. Forget the pipe dream.

Now. I can promise you that there is no way in hell that I will stay at Mesa. Regardless, I will do my best to make it a better place for the pilots that potentially come here in the future. This contract is a joke to not only to the pilot group but to the industry as a whole. How can we introduce a contract that is years behind what is being offered by other non-wholly owned regionals? Because its the best Mesa can do? Doubt it. Because its the most JO is willing to offer on this go-around. He's a business man that lives in the economic principle of supply and demand. Send this garbage back and lets get another offer.

I have heard from some that they are concerned that if we turn this down Mesa will go under. There are far too many assets at this company for JO or United to let it fall apart. IF by chance management chooses to let the company fail, another company will buy or merge with us. Mark my words, some serious consolidation is coming in the non-wholly owned regional sector. Not sure who it will be, but there is too much competition to compete with the financial backing of the wholly owned regionals.