Promote or Retire?
 

I was reading through a lot of posts about separating, waiting for retirement, or moving to the airlines. For most its a numbers game which I fully understand. I've been wrestling with what decision I would make. Here are my details.

Navy helo bubba, O-4, turn 44 this summer. I was passed over for O-5 once and I have one more look next month. The results will come out June'ish. If I don't get selected I'll be forced to retire JAN 2019, so the decision will be made for me. If I get selected for promotion to O-5 I will have a decision to make. Do I decline the promotion, retire, and start my job I have lined up at a regional already, or promote do my 3 years, retire then fly for the airlines?

I'm leaning on just retiring and moving on to my next career. I've read other posters similar situations and the suggestions. I'd like to hear from both sides, those who stayed and those who retired and made the switch.

Assuming you have no interest in flag, and are not flag material, your best financial bet is to retire and get on with it. In this climate (assuming no serious skeletons) the only real risk is losing your medical.

Pin in a year ish, stay for 3 more, get out when you’re 48, for a (relative) pittance more in retirement, or get out now, get a seniority number 3-4 years earlier, and collect a much larger amount of money each year from airline pay than your retirement difference would be until the day you retire from your airline job, with a better QOL to boot. No brainer.

This seems like a pretty straightforward decision to me. If you were a fixed wing guy, I think there might be more considerations to factor into your decision. Like if you were going to be able to retire with flying currency, what you'd be doing in the 3 years as an O-5, etc. You'd also have a very good chance at making an immediate transition to a major airline which is what most everyone in your situation bases their stay vs go career compensation number crunching on. I think most guys end up validating their decision based on QOL and pay.

If YOU want an airline career that's going to end up falling into the "good decision" category, you need to go ASAP. You've got to get FW quals that will make you competitive at a major airline. That probably means a stop at a regional carrier for a few years to build FW PIC time. Putting that process on hold while you stay in to make O-5 doesn't make much sense in my opinion. Good luck.

Anyone remember the TAC report back in the 1980s about how even with 17 years active-duty you’re better off leaving and getting an airline job versus staying for the final three years getting an active-duty retirement?

Get a reserve retirement at 20 and continue with an airline career. The author of the study was flight engineer for me. Said the head of TAC wasn’t happy when he gave them the results and dropped his retirement orders

Would've loved to have been a fly on the wall for that meeting...!! :D

True in the eighties, not so much in 1999 says many friends of mine. It’s always a crap shoot.

In today’s climate, leave with the retirement ASAP, grab an RJ position to gain the FW time.

GF

Thank you all for your insights and information. My gut feeling is to get out and take full advantage of what is being offered me, (RTP), and all of the responses I read has confirmed what I was already thinking and feeling. I am a year out of retirement and I already have a job offer with a regional. I'm looking forward to this.

What is a realistic time from starting a rotor transition program to getting on with a major? I know the rotor transition contracts are 2 years. I'm a fixed wing guy but just curious...Ive seen as low as 1 year and as high as "never".

Actually...in 1999, I saw a spreadsheet being passed around the local O-5s that still backed up the "17 years" postulation.

Certainly the post-9/11 bankruptcies, furloughs, mergers, etc, completely upset the apple cart on that data. There was plenty of discussion here on APC about 10 years ago during the heart of the recession that showed it was basically a financial dead heat between getting out right away and going all the way to retirement.

In 2016 this analysis was done to update the analysis given this latest hiring boom and the more recent improvements to contracts and pay:

Comparing a Military Retirement to Starting Early at an Airline | AviationBull