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Old 02-26-2018, 05:25 PM   #11  
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Wally F4

Good post -- sorry to hear that change has taken place at FedEx. I'm 23 yr retired AF and at Southwest -- life is good.
On another note....seriously asking your opinion on this.

My take is that NO pilot under the age of 40 should consider FedEx or UPS. Not sure a pilot that is under the age of 40 will make it to completion at FedEx or UPS because whether you believe it or not the drones are coming. Within 20 years the majority of cargo will be flown by remotely piloted drones. The technology is there and the integration within the WorldWide airspace system is slowly happening.
The commercial airline sector will eventually go that way but it is much further off than the air freight industry.

Thoughts... do guys at FedEx discuss this much. Again not a concern in my opinion for the over 40 years old pilot but I would not hang my hat on being able to finish my career at FedEx or UPS if I were a 30 year old new hire.
Cheers and enjoy your remaining great years at FedEx.
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Old 02-26-2018, 05:30 PM   #12  
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Wally F4

Good post -- sorry to hear that change has taken place at FedEx. I'm 23 yr retired AF and at Southwest -- life is good.
On another note....seriously asking your opinion on this.

My take is that NO pilot under the age of 40 should consider FedEx or UPS. Not sure a pilot that is under the age of 40 will make it to completion at FedEx or UPS because whether you believe it or not the drones are coming. Within 20 years the majority of cargo will be flown by remotely piloted drones. The technology is there and the integration within the WorldWide airspace system is slowly happening.
The commercial airline sector will eventually go that way but it is much further off than the air freight industry.

Thoughts... do guys at FedEx discuss this much. Again not a concern in my opinion for the over 40 years old pilot but I would not hang my hat on being able to finish my career at FedEx or UPS if I were a 30 year old new hire.
Cheers and enjoy your remaining great years at FedEx.

Really hard to say what the time line for that will be. Do I think it will happen in our lifetime? Maybe. But I also think it will be a slow transition, and pilots will never completely removed from the cockpit. Just my take. Drones are computers, computers go stupid.
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Old 02-26-2018, 05:45 PM   #13  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thunder1 View Post
Wally F4

Good post -- sorry to hear that change has taken place at FedEx. I'm 23 yr retired AF and at Southwest -- life is good.
On another note....seriously asking your opinion on this.

My take is that NO pilot under the age of 40 should consider FedEx or UPS. Not sure a pilot that is under the age of 40 will make it to completion at FedEx or UPS because whether you believe it or not the drones are coming. Within 20 years the majority of cargo will be flown by remotely piloted drones. The technology is there and the integration within the WorldWide airspace system is slowly happening.
The commercial airline sector will eventually go that way but it is much further off than the air freight industry.

Thoughts... do guys at FedEx discuss this much. Again not a concern in my opinion for the over 40 years old pilot but I would not hang my hat on being able to finish my career at FedEx or UPS if I were a 30 year old new hire.
Cheers and enjoy your remaining great years at FedEx.
Nobody under age 4 should consider FDX/UPS. I think 80-100 years is a good swag.

First they need all the technical pieces in place to do it at an acceptable level of safety. That does not exist yet... the DoD doesn't really care if a bunch of prop-job drones crash in the desert. But if people are going to be on or under the plane, that's a whole 'nother ball game.

Then it needs to be cheap enough to make economic sense.

Then they have get the regulatory structure in place.

Then ATC and ground support needs to be adjusted. ATC alone might be $$$$$$$$$$$$$$.

Then the transition needs to occur, and it will proceed slowly and carefully at first.
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Old 02-26-2018, 07:00 PM   #14  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thunder1 View Post
Wally F4

Good post -- sorry to hear that change has taken place at FedEx. I'm 23 yr retired AF and at Southwest -- life is good.
On another note....seriously asking your opinion on this.

My take is that NO pilot under the age of 40 should consider FedEx or UPS. Not sure a pilot that is under the age of 40 will make it to completion at FedEx or UPS because whether you believe it or not the drones are coming. Within 20 years the majority of cargo will be flown by remotely piloted drones. The technology is there and the integration within the WorldWide airspace system is slowly happening.
The commercial airline sector will eventually go that way but it is much further off than the air freight industry.

Thoughts... do guys at FedEx discuss this much. Again not a concern in my opinion for the over 40 years old pilot but I would not hang my hat on being able to finish my career at FedEx or UPS if I were a 30 year old new hire.
Cheers and enjoy your remaining great years at FedEx.
Respectfully, I agree with Rickair7777. As I have stated before in other threads. Not a technology issue. Its a million other problems. Cybersecurity etc. UPS is buying new 747s to move volume through the next several years. They will be around for at least 25 as the 767's etc. These human filled tubes fly over major cities in the same airspace as your 737. 747s falling out of the sky is not a risk UPS or Fedex is going to take in 25 years. A pilotless 747 sized aircraft targeted by terrorists is another threat UPS and FedEx won't indulge.
Do we talk about it? Yes, we are concerned with the single piloted ops in 25 years, the removal of the RO over 8 to 12. Removing double crew requirement over 12 (only one) etc in shorter term. This is a far more practical reality.
Never mind that FAA will takes decades to get all approved. Never mind many other countries. NEXGEN is a good proof of that reality.
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Old 02-27-2018, 01:40 AM   #15  
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Within 20 years the majority of cargo will be flown by remotely piloted drones.
Thanks for a good laugh over morning coffee.
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Old 02-27-2018, 04:36 AM   #16  
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....The technology is there ....
No it's not. Not even close. The military loss rates are kind of staggering. And there's a reason the U2 is still flying.
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Old 02-27-2018, 12:50 PM   #17  
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No it's not. Not even close. The military loss rates are kind of staggering. And there's a reason the U2 is still flying.
Yes, not ready for prime time by a long shot. Maybe in my kid's lifetime we'll see it, but I don't expect any change in mine.
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Old 02-28-2018, 06:27 AM   #18  
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None of us have a crystal ball, but why are we assuming future disruptive technology will only impact one segment of the industry?

We may likely be replaced someday. However, it will have to be for a better mouse trap. In other words, the new robot will have to be safer, more reliable, and all around better than humans in-order to drive regulatory progress. Furthermore, the technology will have to be more efficient, and economical for the airlines to buy-in.

Why wouldn’t the general public and the passenger carries also want a safer, more efficient, and economical product?
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Old 02-28-2018, 10:33 PM   #19  
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Within 20 years the majority of cargo will be flown by remotely piloted drones.
LOL. Within 20 years, FedEx may have gotten rid of all their three-engine airplanes...maybe.
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Old 03-01-2018, 02:17 AM   #20  
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Wally F4

Good post -- sorry to hear that change has taken place at FedEx. I'm 23 yr retired AF and at Southwest -- life is good.
On another note....seriously asking your opinion on this.

My take is that NO pilot under the age of 40 should consider FedEx or UPS. Not sure a pilot that is under the age of 40 will make it to completion at FedEx or UPS because whether you believe it or not the drones are coming. Within 20 years the majority of cargo will be flown by remotely piloted drones. The technology is there and the integration within the WorldWide airspace system is slowly happening.
The commercial airline sector will eventually go that way but it is much further off than the air freight industry.

Thoughts... do guys at FedEx discuss this much. Again not a concern in my opinion for the over 40 years old pilot but I would not hang my hat on being able to finish my career at FedEx or UPS if I were a 30 year old new hire.
Cheers and enjoy your remaining great years at FedEx.
HorseCrap..... that said I think the OP sentiments are pervasive throughout the industry except as some of the smaller carriers.....
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