Dos Gringos sums up the dilemma well. Caution, NSFW:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ch5z3DMC3RA

I've been part of two services so I have some exp. in this. I would go ANG route. Getting a GUARANTEED military fixed wing rating is gold. You can take that and transfer to different ANG units much easier than you think. USN could send you in too many different directions and you are tied into them for the next 10 years. Plus USN is having a really tough time keeping guys in the cockpit. You have to want to come into the active duty with an understanding that this is a calling to serve more than a chance to fly.

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/y...lets-is-empty/

Air Force authorized to recall up to 1,000 retired military pilots - ABC News

https://www.quora.com/What-are-the-d...f-fighter-jets

Humorous, not comparing heavies :) but path similar regardless of airframe

Having flown both...go guard without a doubt. The USN gig will come with a 10 year AD commitment, so kiss an airline career goodbye for at least that long. ANG will let you have the best of both worlds, plus the heavy time will be a sure bet at an airline interview. Like others have said, you can rock the Navy program and needs of the Navy has taken out more than a few fixed wing hopefuls. Also there is no chance of ending up on a ship as a failed student in the ANG. There are some poor souls right now haze grey and underway that washed out of the Navy pilot training track and are on ships right now with anywhere from a 4-10 year commitment depending on how far they got before washing out. Go Guard, enjoy life and never look back. My .02

Fly Safe

And a ten year ADSC - that is, active duty service commitment - will carry you right through the coming 2022-23 peak of major airline pilot retirements. That may not be a once in a lifetime opportunity, but if it’s not it is pretty damn close to it. And with the Air Force and Navy also hurting for pilots, the likelihood of you being able to separate early to go into the Navy Reserve is - to say the least - pretty iffy.

Early out from the Navy?

"Iffy" is being generous to say the least.

He's 22 years old. Fly low and fast. Blow stuff up.

Exactly. In the ANG. Choose his participation level, part time or full time. Go on deployments or skip them. Major deployments can’t be skipped, smaller/shorter deployments are at his choice. Some guys sign up for all of them, some guys rarely go on the voluntary deployments. Freedom of choice.

100% agree. But he's talking about Guard heavies or a Navy pilot slot. To me it's worth the shot to have a chance at something very few are lucky enough to do. Guard fighter vs AD fighter is a no brainer.