ExAF

If your second career is going to be airline flying, you are better off starting it ASAP vice waiting 3 extra years. Once you are past your retirement eligible date in the mil, you are basically working there for half-pay and missing out on establishing yourself in your next career. One of the hardest things for a career military person to comprehend is how critical DOH is in the airline business. A week can make the difference between getting furloughed and not, working Christmas or not, getting that summer vacation or not, getting a regular line schedule or commuting to reserve, upgrading to captain or not....you get the drift. Seniority is EVERYTHING in the flying biz. Yes, you will miss the comradery, the people and the mission, but I think you will be better off in the long run if you get started on that second career as soon as you are able.

rickair7777

I've seen this before, people tend to cling a little bit to what they know.

Nobody can stay in the military forever (well except maybe Jim Mattis).

You've already done 20 years that you love. I don't think three more years of the same is going to be worth a (for sure) big seniority hit and (possibly) preventing you from reaching your airline career goal.

Odds are that the airlines will be interesting and rewarding as well. With good QOL and relative financial security to boot.


Disclaimer: No absolute guarantees in the airline industry, although the massive retirement numbers should mitigate any furloughs due to "routine" economic hiccups.

Sliceback

What's the retirement value increase? $150 a month? $1800 a year? For 35 years? That's roughly $70,000.

The projected numbers for leaving to the airline is almost $1,000,000 more for the additional three years after subtracting your current pay and the retirement benefit you'd get from three additional years. In other words, if you had an offer to leave the Army for $300,000 a year would you leave? That's the back end offer you're being offered if you leave instead of staying for three more years.

As Rickair and ExAF said military people don't understand the value of seniority. I just provided the simple math of what the delay could, and mostly likely will, cost.

Again, as Rickair said, people tend to favor the known and extend it vs. reaching for the unknown. Good luck on your decision.

PRS Guitars

The above 3 posters have all made great points. I’ll pile on, you definitely need to jump ship in 2019. I would give the same advice to an officer, but for enlisted, this is a no brainer.

They aren’t paying you enough to justify staying. You essentially would be sacrificing your family’s wealth to stay in. Get out of your comfort zone and move on.

Start prepping though, and be aware, you will pay more taxes than you are used to, since right now 1/3 your income is tax free.

Rama

A three year difference in seniority is huge. It makes a big difference in upgrade, quality of life, and being able to bid for the place you want to live or the aircraft and schedule you want to fly.
Take the retirement as soon as possible. It will also help pay the bills on first year pay.

CLazarus

Just a few comments regarding the selective quotes above. All things being equal, jumping ship ASAP for the much higher pay/seniority makes complete sense. However, in your case all things are not equal. When I got within range of retirement I was ready and happy to leave. You don't sound ready or all that happy at the prospect. Ask yourself, if you did actually get promoted and could stay longer than three years would you want to? If yes, I wouldn't be in a rush to go out the door. You can get your ducks in a leisurely row over the next couple of years, decide which regionals/majors you want to target, work on your resume/apps, and time your retirement to happen the day before you start at a regional (while still on terminal leave). Also, if you left now but never got hired at a major... would you regret leaving early?

I think you could get hired at a major if you retire now or in three years. I was 44 when I got hired and I was shocked that out of 20 new hires, there were eight guys older than me and I think the oldest was 55+ years old. And if you want to be NYC based with a major, you could do that pretty much out the gate with UAL at least (I'd bet DAL and JB too, but have no idea if NYC is junior at AA). And of course, there are regionals with NYC bases too.

Also consider this, the economy has been expanding for almost a decade now and warning signals are starting to flash. When the economy finally stalls, we probably won't see another lost decade at the majors but I'd expect the hiring wave to subside to attrition replacement levels for a few years. On the other hand, I think the regionals will be hiring regardless as they are so short manned to begin with and you sound exceptionally well qualified to get hired at one vs. someone straight out of ERAU or somesuch. I wouldn't blame you one bit for making the leap ASAP, the others are right that you would likely be giving up significant $/seniority. But I also think in your case you have valid reasons to linger a while longer.

Sliceback

It's a tough choice if you really love what you're currently doing. But most guys, especially late bloomers, really love flying for a career also. That's the hard, and unknown factor that's hard to define and everyone's value of X vs Y will be different.

A comment about older guys getting hired. He'd be 50-51 yrs old and a 2,500-3,000 hr CFI with it appears to be limited larger or jet time. 53-54 before he could upgrade? So he'd have perhaps 7,000 hrs TT, 4,000 hrs jet, and 1,000 hrs TPIC at 55?

Part of the matrix is comparing resumes vs age. That's an unbelievable resume for a 25 yr old, at 55 it lags the pack. It would be interesting to see the resumes of the older guys getting hired at the majors. I'd guess the big flight hours and broad experience resumes come from older guys. Seven thousand hours, and only 1,000 hrs TPIC, 4ith 4,00 hrs PIC, doesn't stand out. It's average. New hires are averaging 5000-7500 TT for guys 36-37 yrs old at the big three. I'd guess that the 50+ yr old guys have above, or much above, competitive resumes.

Just another unknown to ponder.

rickair7777

Some airlines are discriminating against older pilots who "stagnated" or did not have "career progression". I'm a smart guy and I'm not sure why they would bother to do that, one of the BENEFITS of this job is that you can use your seniority any way you see fit. And some folks got stuck during the lost decade. They may be applying some models from the 9-5 world. They also may just be using that as way to age discriminate if for whatever reason they prefer young pilots (perhaps to minimize avoidable training events over then next 15-20 years).

But I would think that a career-changer would get some benefit of doubt on that, as long as he progressed his (full time turbine) aviation career at a good clip.

Also some employers will seek age diversity, to avoid creating *another* retirement bubble X number of years down the road.

I've also observed that some majors actually like older new-hires, because they are far more likely to just settle in and get comfortable rather than keep chasing a gold ring once they grab the brass one.

Given the demographics in five years, he should have plenty of opportunity at the majors, possibly even the big three (they will hurting the most about then).

Hilltopper89

This.

I tell friends who are still in but retirement eligible that you’re basically working for free every day after 20. Do the math and you’ll realize that the money over time is considerably better by retiring and starting at a major as soon as possible. Add in the time value of money and compound interest and you’re probably talking a million dollars or more by waiting those 3 years. Making the jump is not necessarily the answer but the question is, after you’ve done the math, are those 3 years in a job you love worth the number of dollars you calculate to leave on the table in that period? You have to consider the pay raise (after year one) as an FO, the sooner upgrade and associated huge pay raise, and the value of the company contributed retirement plan. Run the math for staying an FO til retirement, and upgrading at the earliest opportunity...6-7 years or so. I think you’ll be startled how much $$ that is. Certainly factor in the increased monthly retirement pay as well, although also realize that that extra $500 a month is less than 2 hours of work as a major airline captain. Only you can answer that. I know what I’d do. I did 20 years flying single seat jets and wouldn’t trade this airline for that job for almost any amount of money. It’s too easy and the money is too good.

But you won’t know if you made the right decision for 20 years. Ask all those hired in the lost decade. All I can base my advice on is what I’ve known...and the last 6 years it’s been pretty good to be at a legacy.

CLazarus

Yup, not only this but older new-hires will never reach the top of the pay scale or camp out there for a couple of decades. So long as there are replacements in the pipeline, hiring older guys keeps labor costs low.