PRS Guitars

At AA, NYC is ridiculously jr in all seats all equipment. I’m actually considering doing exactly what a Sliceback suggested and moving to Bucks County, beautiful area and I can upgrade in LGA until I can hold PHL. I actually don’t mind my commute, but we just arent happy in our home state of Colorado any more.

Hilltopper89

I am doing just this at United. NB CA and moving to Bucks County.

PRS Guitars

I will PM you in the future, we are in long term planning mode right now. I was actually born in Doylestown but only lived there for 5 years. I’m looking at nearby farm property. My grandparents lived on 1750 Farmhouse (unfortunately now torn down). I have very fond memories of that house, and would like to get something similar.

Hilltopper89

Perfect. No brainer for me.

BravoZulu

I am blown away and humbled by the extensively written advice you have all given me. There is a wealth of wisdom in all your words, and I greatly value it, thank you!! Sliceback, your well-researched presentation of the seniority/financial metrics is awesome. There is one section of it that I don't quite grasp: n/b FO (x=retirement percentage @ 9,100) (plug = bottom guy), and the tables that follow. What exactly is the information here? My apologies for not understanding it. CLazarus, the concerns you mention are valid, and do play into my overall assessment.

I will tell you all that your mostly unanimous positioning on my query is definitely making me lean toward retiring this upcoming summer. The phrase "you would be sacrificing your family's wealth to stay in" sure struck a chord. To everyone that has contributed here -- you made a difference! Admittedly, there is no certainty that I can make it to a legacy, so that is where I'll be rolling the dice. I hope to get into a NYC-based regional where I would be happy staying should that be the end place of my career. It seems currently that Republic and Endeavor are the leaders in that, but things always change of course.

The discussion started by Sliceback and Rickair about the hiring of older guys is an interesting one, that hopefully will continue.

PRS, amazingly, I was also born in Doylestown. I now live in Connecticut, and hope to remain here through my airline career, hence the NYC base preference.

Thanks again, everyone.

Sliceback

Plug = the bottom guy on the seniority list or in a bid status. 15,000 guys. Junior large w/b FO and Captain plugs are around 11,500.

X = % at retirement if you were in a specific bid status. IE NYC n/b FO? Top 1%.

9,100 would be your expected final seniority if you retired now.
11,400 is your expected final seniority number if you stay in three more years.

Those numbers assume a frozen pilot corps size. Reality is probably a 1.5-2% annual increase? Which would improve your end of career relative seniority. Instead of ring 9,100 of 15,000 if would be 9,100 of 17K? 18K? 19K??

Sliceback

No problems not understanding the information/format. It's a learning process and perhaps I didn't explain it well enough.

I'll repost it with some verbiage. If you don't understand it others don't either and hopefully guys can look at it and get a better insight into how the seniority system actually impacts you. In your case we're looking at data for 1/1/2026 vs getting hired on 1/1/2029.

The previous portion of my post covered DOH (date of hire) and the seniority number you'd start with and annual advancements based on retirements. Retirements are a given, growth is a hope. Even the law changing to 67, 70, unlimited, at some point people will retire.

Sliceback

Repost -


n/b FO (x=retirement percentage @ 9,100) (plug = bottom guy) -
as a 1/1/2019 and 47 yr old you'd retire around 9,100 seniority after starting at 15,000.

LGA x - 1% PHL x - 11%
at retirement (X), 9,100 would be #3 on the AB in NYC. That's 1% of the total NYC AB FO manning. In PHL 9,100 would be 11% on the AB

50% - 14,000 50% - 12,100
To reach the 50th percentile in a bid status, in this case NYC AB FO, your seniority has to be 14,000. In PHL it's 12,100. Using the DOH and yearly seniority advancement shows you'd start 2027 at 14,100 so you'd be at 50% NYC AB FO in Feb-Mar 2027, or approx. 13-14 months. In PHL you'd need to get to 12,100 to reach the 50th percentile. You'd start 2034 at 12,200, with only 400 retirements that year, so you could expect to reach the 50% in April 2034. That's 5 yrs and 3 months after your hypothetical hire date. That's a HUGE difference, 13-14 months vs 63 months, to reach the mid pack n/b FO percentage.

Keep in mind that's the percentage of overall manning, to include roughly 25% reserve, in a bid status. You'll also hear guys say "I'm about half way up the line holders". That's roughly 50% of the 75% of the manning that can hold a monthly schedule.

A general observation is that you can hold a line once you achieve 85% of a bid status (frequently lower than that), IMO decent trips start once you're approx. 65% of a bid status, and once you're at 40-50% of a bid status you can hold, IMO, reasonable flying. All rough estimates that vary due to the individual bidding habits of guys senior to you and the type of flying your fleet does. For example right now PHL 767 has no bad Europe trips. None. It's just best, better, and even better.

75% - 14,700 75% - 13,100
Plug - 15,000 Plug - 14,000
with a pilot corps size of 15,000, and the plug being at 15,000 in NYC, you can get it immediately. With PHL's current plug being 14,000 as a 2026 new hire you'd get to PHL in roughly 13-14 months. As a 2029 new hire, using the DOH and projected seniority advancement by year, it would take until August of 2030, and 20 months, to get to PHL.

This is why guys talk about relative seniority. It's where your seniority number fits into the overall seniority list, the seniority of guys in your base, or the seniority of guys in the seat (jobs) you're looking at. The data I'm providing shows the seniority number you need to get to 75% or 50% and your final percentage if you retire from the specific jobs listed (NYC and PHL n/b FO, w/b FO, n/b CA).

W/b FO - (777 JFK, 330 PHL) (PHL seniority should go more junior as 787's replace 767's) -

JFK x - 63% PHL x - 47%
75% - 10,200 75% - 10,200
Plug - 11,800 Plug - 11,400

n/b CA (320 comparison in both bases) -

LGA x - 62% PHL - x - 93%
75% - 10,600 75% - unable
Plug - 11,400 Plug - 10,100


Let me know if it still doesn't make sense. Every question you ask is a question others have so the discussion is helpful to many.

rickair7777

Even more reason to pursue the airlines and majors. NY is the junior base for pretty much all the best majors. At DL west coast CA was recently over ten years while NY CA was under ten months... that's at least a million $ right there. Heard FDX was the same.

If you actually want to live there, you'll enjoy a career-long schedule and financial windfall compared to other airline pilots. I'd push hard to get hired by one of those majors. The same applies to the regionals.

CLazarus

Just do me one favor BZ, between now and when you hit "submit" on your retirement make sure you closely follow the state of the economy. We may not go into reverse again like 2008, but it seems to me that the music may stop soon. I first started working on my apps almost two years before I retired. I only hit "submit" on them once I'd committed myself to retirement and was ready to interview. My first interview request for a regional came the next day.