Retire now or in three years?
12-10-2018, 11:57 AM
#31
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: Window seat
Posts: 5,205
Envoy, as a wholly owned subsidiary of American Airlines, has a guaranteed flow through agreement to AA. Roughly 7 yrs estimate right now. It will slow down as AA's retirement bubble peaks and reduces.
Right now that's great deal. I'd guess it's value will significantly decrease as AA's retirements slow.
Example - next 7 yrs of retirements total (2019-2025) - 5861
Starting in 2026 the 7 yr retirement total is - 4659
Starting in 2029 the 7 yr retirement total is - 3573
The reduction in retirements should increase the expected time it takes to flow through.
Right now that's great deal. I'd guess it's value will significantly decrease as AA's retirements slow.
Example - next 7 yrs of retirements total (2019-2025) - 5861
Starting in 2026 the 7 yr retirement total is - 4659
Starting in 2029 the 7 yr retirement total is - 3573
The reduction in retirements should increase the expected time it takes to flow through.
12-12-2018, 08:37 AM
#32
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2018
Position: sideways
Posts: 294
Originally Posted by BravoZulu
Greetings all. I am a long time reader and appreciate all the great feedback and advice given on here. Here is my situation -- I would love to hear your thoughts of wisdom.
I am enlisted active duty and retirement eligible. I am not in an aviation field, however I have worked off-duty as a CFI on evenings and weekends for many years. I have 2500 TT and all the associated minimums for a full ATP. I am looking toward interviewing with regional airlines in the near future in pursuit of my second career. I am 47 with a masters degree. If possible, I would love to be able to conclude my airline career as a NYC-based narrow body FO at one of the big 3, but here is my dilemma:
I absolutely love my job in the military. It is rewarding, fulfilling, and nourishes my soul, and quite frankly I don't want to leave. However under High Year Tenure, I am forced out in three years. Possibility for advancement to the next rank is slim, so this time frame is the reasonable expectation I have to work with. Additionally, my field has limited application outside of the military. I am struggling mightily with this choice, even after having had numerous conversations with my wife and friends. I can:
1. Retire summer 2019 at age 47 to get in on this hiring wave now and maximize my airline career, but sacrifice three years of what I love doing.
2. Retire in summer 2022 at age 50, get all I can out of the job I love, get a modestly better pension, but potentially eliminate my possibility of getting to a major airline.
If my chances of making it to a legacy are very low even if I begin next summer at age 47, then I would just stay the three more years in the military, followed by a 15-year career at a regional. But what do you think? Are my prospects for a major strong enough to warrant retiring now?
Thank you all in advance for your input, I will consider all of it carefully.
I am enlisted active duty and retirement eligible. I am not in an aviation field, however I have worked off-duty as a CFI on evenings and weekends for many years. I have 2500 TT and all the associated minimums for a full ATP. I am looking toward interviewing with regional airlines in the near future in pursuit of my second career. I am 47 with a masters degree. If possible, I would love to be able to conclude my airline career as a NYC-based narrow body FO at one of the big 3, but here is my dilemma:
I absolutely love my job in the military. It is rewarding, fulfilling, and nourishes my soul, and quite frankly I don't want to leave. However under High Year Tenure, I am forced out in three years. Possibility for advancement to the next rank is slim, so this time frame is the reasonable expectation I have to work with. Additionally, my field has limited application outside of the military. I am struggling mightily with this choice, even after having had numerous conversations with my wife and friends. I can:
1. Retire summer 2019 at age 47 to get in on this hiring wave now and maximize my airline career, but sacrifice three years of what I love doing.
2. Retire in summer 2022 at age 50, get all I can out of the job I love, get a modestly better pension, but potentially eliminate my possibility of getting to a major airline.
If my chances of making it to a legacy are very low even if I begin next summer at age 47, then I would just stay the three more years in the military, followed by a 15-year career at a regional. But what do you think? Are my prospects for a major strong enough to warrant retiring now?
Thank you all in advance for your input, I will consider all of it carefully.
Biggest thing is seniority. If there is a downturn. That can be difference in staying or getting layed off. Take first class you can. Know reservists that One guy took the next class than his buddy and after 9/11 he was let go and had to go back to reserve job.
12-12-2018, 04:42 PM
#33
New Hire
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Dec 2018
Posts: 5
Sliceback, thank you for taking the time on that detailed explanation, it cleared up everything. You’re right, there will be many other readers who will benefit from that.
The income difference of the three years is pretty staggering. I’m gathering that it is from being able to spend more years as CA at a major (assuming I get there). But here’s a question: I will definitely seek QOL over max pay in the final years of my career, and the idea of being in the top 1% of FO’s in NYC sounds very appealing. Is this thinking sound?
The income difference of the three years is pretty staggering. I’m gathering that it is from being able to spend more years as CA at a major (assuming I get there). But here’s a question: I will definitely seek QOL over max pay in the final years of my career, and the idea of being in the top 1% of FO’s in NYC sounds very appealing. Is this thinking sound?
12-12-2018, 04:46 PM
#34
New Hire
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Dec 2018
Posts: 5
Originally Posted by CLazarus
Just do me one favor BZ, between now and when you hit "submit" on your retirement make sure you closely follow the state of the economy. We may not go into reverse again like 2008, but it seems to me that the music may stop soon. I first started working on my apps almost two years before I retired. I only hit "submit" on them once I'd committed myself to retirement and was ready to interview. My first interview request for a regional came the next day.
12-12-2018, 04:54 PM
#35
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,251
Originally Posted by BravoZulu
But here’s a question: I will definitely seek QOL over max pay in the final years of my career, and the idea of being in the top 1% of FO’s in NYC sounds very appealing. Is this thinking sound?
For most folks, assuming kids out of the house, it would make more sense to upgrade and bank the cash the last few years. You could probably net $100K/year more as a junior-ish CA vice senior FO. Widebody FO might be about a wash with NB CA, but your seniority might actually be better as a NB CA.
But it's your choice either way, no US majors have a "forced upgrade" policy anymore.
12-12-2018, 05:50 PM
#36
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2018
Position: A320
Posts: 241
I got out at 11 years, 9/11, called back to active duty for 2, furloughed, returned to AD, retired in 2010.
Not my intended path, but if an AD retirement is nearby, retire. The health care savings alone is worth it, plus the jingle.
Just my .02
Not my intended path, but if an AD retirement is nearby, retire. The health care savings alone is worth it, plus the jingle.
Just my .02
12-13-2018, 04:29 AM
#37
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: Window seat
Posts: 5,205
Originally Posted by BravoZulu
Sliceback, thank you for taking the time on that detailed explanation, it cleared up everything. You’re right, there will be many other readers who will benefit from that.
The income difference of the three years is pretty staggering. I’m gathering that it is from being able to spend more years as CA at a major (assuming I get there). But here’s a question: I will definitely seek QOL over max pay in the final years of my career, and the idea of being in the top 1% of FO’s in NYC sounds very appealing. Is this thinking sound?
The income difference of the three years is pretty staggering. I’m gathering that it is from being able to spend more years as CA at a major (assuming I get there). But here’s a question: I will definitely seek QOL over max pay in the final years of my career, and the idea of being in the top 1% of FO’s in NYC sounds very appealing. Is this thinking sound?
Checking LGA bidding patterns for guys 9100-9499 seniority. Thirty eight guys -
n/b CA - 26
n/b FO - 7
777 FO -5
In NYC 18% of guys at your final seniority number are still in the n/b FO seat. SIxty eight percent have upgraded.
Of the 12 FO's who could be CA only one is retiring in the next 7 yrs. He retires in 2019. He could be a line holder but chooses to stay senior at a cost of at least $100K and possible up to $125K. So the other 11 have the option of upgrading before they retire. Most guys choose that. Some guys do upgrade in the their last year or two just to have done it. Both jobs are great, CA is better.
Everyone's personal evaluation of QWL vs income is different. Roughly 70% choose the money and 30% are choosing better seniority but they're also 58 yrs old and younger. The overwhelming majority eventually choose the money. And it's not uncommon that the guys not chasing the money have significant outside income which reduce the desire to chase $$. Or they have significant outside hobbies/careers, or family requirements, that dictate that they keep as much seniority as possible.
12-13-2018, 10:04 AM
#38
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2007
Position: 7ERA
Posts: 1,216
BZ....I didn’t see anyone address this so here goes. It’s not all about the money. You say you really enjoy your job in the military right now. I get it. I ejoyed my last job in the AF. But, I love my job as an airline pilot. My company is great (Delta). The flying is great. The people are great. The opportunity to non rev on days off is good (used to be great). Not to say they are all great, but I enjoy the trips I fly. Then as a bonus, I get a few days off. Days off with no responsibilities what so ever.
Whatever you do, when you do go to an airline I think you will find you like it as much or more than your current job.
Whatever you do, when you do go to an airline I think you will find you like it as much or more than your current job.
12-13-2018, 02:56 PM
#39
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: Window seat
Posts: 5,205
Originally Posted by Hilltopper89
I know what I’d do. I did 20 years flying single seat jets and wouldn’t trade this airline for that job for almost any amount of money. It’s too easy and the money is too good.
But you won’t know if you made the right decision for 20 years. Ask all those hired in the lost decade. All I can base my advice on is what I’ve known...and the last 6 years it’s been pretty good to be at a legacy.
But you won’t know if you made the right decision for 20 years. Ask all those hired in the lost decade. All I can base my advice on is what I’ve known...and the last 6 years it’s been pretty good to be at a legacy.
12-13-2018, 08:49 PM
#40
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2012
Position: 737
Posts: 1,061
Originally Posted by Sliceback
Hilltopper probably had minimum, or no time, at a regional trying to improve his resume. Keep that in mind when you're at year 2, 3, 4 or 5 trying to get to the majors. The number of people who ***** is high, the number of people who walk away is almost zero, especially at the majors.
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
