Retire now or in three years?
12-07-2018, 04:16 PM
#1
New Hire
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Dec 2018
Posts: 5
Retire now or in three years?
Greetings all. I am a long time reader and appreciate all the great feedback and advice given on here. Here is my situation -- I would love to hear your thoughts of wisdom.
I am enlisted active duty and retirement eligible. I am not in an aviation field, however I have worked off-duty as a CFI on evenings and weekends for many years. I have 2500 TT and all the associated minimums for a full ATP. I am looking toward interviewing with regional airlines in the near future in pursuit of my second career. I am 47 with a masters degree. If possible, I would love to be able to conclude my airline career as a NYC-based narrow body FO at one of the big 3, but here is my dilemma:
I absolutely love my job in the military. It is rewarding, fulfilling, and nourishes my soul, and quite frankly I don't want to leave. However under High Year Tenure, I am forced out in three years. Possibility for advancement to the next rank is slim, so this time frame is the reasonable expectation I have to work with. Additionally, my field has limited application outside of the military. I am struggling mightily with this choice, even after having had numerous conversations with my wife and friends. I can:
1. Retire summer 2019 at age 47 to get in on this hiring wave now and maximize my airline career, but sacrifice three years of what I love doing.
2. Retire in summer 2022 at age 50, get all I can out of the job I love, get a modestly better pension, but potentially eliminate my possibility of getting to a major airline.
If my chances of making it to a legacy are very low even if I begin next summer at age 47, then I would just stay the three more years in the military, followed by a 15-year career at a regional. But what do you think? Are my prospects for a major strong enough to warrant retiring now?
Thank you all in advance for your input, I will consider all of it carefully.
I am enlisted active duty and retirement eligible. I am not in an aviation field, however I have worked off-duty as a CFI on evenings and weekends for many years. I have 2500 TT and all the associated minimums for a full ATP. I am looking toward interviewing with regional airlines in the near future in pursuit of my second career. I am 47 with a masters degree. If possible, I would love to be able to conclude my airline career as a NYC-based narrow body FO at one of the big 3, but here is my dilemma:
I absolutely love my job in the military. It is rewarding, fulfilling, and nourishes my soul, and quite frankly I don't want to leave. However under High Year Tenure, I am forced out in three years. Possibility for advancement to the next rank is slim, so this time frame is the reasonable expectation I have to work with. Additionally, my field has limited application outside of the military. I am struggling mightily with this choice, even after having had numerous conversations with my wife and friends. I can:
1. Retire summer 2019 at age 47 to get in on this hiring wave now and maximize my airline career, but sacrifice three years of what I love doing.
2. Retire in summer 2022 at age 50, get all I can out of the job I love, get a modestly better pension, but potentially eliminate my possibility of getting to a major airline.
If my chances of making it to a legacy are very low even if I begin next summer at age 47, then I would just stay the three more years in the military, followed by a 15-year career at a regional. But what do you think? Are my prospects for a major strong enough to warrant retiring now?
Thank you all in advance for your input, I will consider all of it carefully.
12-07-2018, 04:44 PM
#3
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2015
Position: Gear slinger
Posts: 2,895
Originally Posted by BravoZulu
Greetings all. I am a long time reader and appreciate all the great feedback and advice given on here. Here is my situation -- I would love to hear your thoughts of wisdom.
I am enlisted active duty and retirement eligible. I am not in an aviation field, however I have worked off-duty as a CFI on evenings and weekends for many years. I have 2500 TT and all the associated minimums for a full ATP. I am looking toward interviewing with regional airlines in the near future in pursuit of my second career. I am 47 with a masters degree. If possible, I would love to be able to conclude my airline career as a NYC-based narrow body FO at one of the big 3, but here is my dilemma:
I absolutely love my job in the military. It is rewarding, fulfilling, and nourishes my soul, and quite frankly I don't want to leave. However under High Year Tenure, I am forced out in three years. Possibility for advancement to the next rank is slim, so this time frame is the reasonable expectation I have to work with. Additionally, my field has limited application outside of the military. I am struggling mightily with this choice, even after having had numerous conversations with my wife and friends. I can:
1. Retire summer 2019 at age 47 to get in on this hiring wave now and maximize my airline career, but sacrifice three years of what I love doing.
2. Retire in summer 2022 at age 50, get all I can out of the job I love, get a modestly better pension, but potentially eliminate my possibility of getting to a major airline.
If my chances of making it to a legacy are very low even if I begin next summer at age 47, then I would just stay the three more years in the military, followed by a 15-year career at a regional. But what do you think? Are my prospects for a major strong enough to warrant retiring now?
Thank you all in advance for your input, I will consider all of it carefully.
I am enlisted active duty and retirement eligible. I am not in an aviation field, however I have worked off-duty as a CFI on evenings and weekends for many years. I have 2500 TT and all the associated minimums for a full ATP. I am looking toward interviewing with regional airlines in the near future in pursuit of my second career. I am 47 with a masters degree. If possible, I would love to be able to conclude my airline career as a NYC-based narrow body FO at one of the big 3, but here is my dilemma:
I absolutely love my job in the military. It is rewarding, fulfilling, and nourishes my soul, and quite frankly I don't want to leave. However under High Year Tenure, I am forced out in three years. Possibility for advancement to the next rank is slim, so this time frame is the reasonable expectation I have to work with. Additionally, my field has limited application outside of the military. I am struggling mightily with this choice, even after having had numerous conversations with my wife and friends. I can:
1. Retire summer 2019 at age 47 to get in on this hiring wave now and maximize my airline career, but sacrifice three years of what I love doing.
2. Retire in summer 2022 at age 50, get all I can out of the job I love, get a modestly better pension, but potentially eliminate my possibility of getting to a major airline.
If my chances of making it to a legacy are very low even if I begin next summer at age 47, then I would just stay the three more years in the military, followed by a 15-year career at a regional. But what do you think? Are my prospects for a major strong enough to warrant retiring now?
Thank you all in advance for your input, I will consider all of it carefully.
If you’re having fun and don’t mind working for a discount since you’re retirement eligible keep with it. When you’re ready to retire go to Endeavor or Republic and stay NY based until you make it to a major or retire as a regional captain.
12-07-2018, 04:45 PM
#4
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,803
You meet the requirements for an ATP now?, so, if you separated now (with full retirement?) and are willing to flex on the quality of life at the regionals for a few years, I think it's reasonable to expect to be very competitive at the majors by age 50.
15 years, at an average salary over $175K/yr would supplement that military retirement quite nicely.
15 years, at an average salary over $175K/yr would supplement that military retirement quite nicely.
12-07-2018, 04:50 PM
#5
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2008
Position: A-320
Posts: 1,122
A 15 year career is plenty of time to make it to a major airline. There will be a lot of movement in the next 10 years and if you sit out the first 3 you are certainly diminishing the career you will have.
Financially you would be better off leaving as soon as you can. Regional FO's are making 50k, Captains $100k. Major FOs 100-300k, CAs 250k-350k. You won't have enough time left to make widebody captain at a major, but they're down to 5 year upgrades on the narrowbodies. You could very well make widebody CA in 15 years, so each additional year you spend in the military is one less year at the top pay of an airline career. Staying an additional 3 years will probably cost you about $750k.
Is it possible to go over to the guard or reserves so you can do both?
Financially you would be better off leaving as soon as you can. Regional FO's are making 50k, Captains $100k. Major FOs 100-300k, CAs 250k-350k. You won't have enough time left to make widebody captain at a major, but they're down to 5 year upgrades on the narrowbodies. You could very well make widebody CA in 15 years, so each additional year you spend in the military is one less year at the top pay of an airline career. Staying an additional 3 years will probably cost you about $750k.
Is it possible to go over to the guard or reserves so you can do both?
12-07-2018, 04:51 PM
#6
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Position: 767 Captain
Posts: 3,988
Originally Posted by new guy
If you are 10, 8, 9....Maybe even 5 years away I'd say no. But retirement. For the rest of your life....."guaranteed"
To the OP. I don't think the 3-year delay is going to preclude you from getting to a major. If you get on with a regional and upgrade, I think you'll have a shot once you get the quals. It's just going to be 3 years later than it could be if you bail now.
You just have to decide if extending your military career for all the reasons you mentioned is worth KNOWING you're going to take a hit in seniority at whatever airline (regional or major) you end up at.
From your post, it's pretty clear this isn't all about money, but I have to ask: Have you done the math on retiring now and opening the "check of the month club spigot" ASAP along with your new airline career pay versus staying in and delaying retirement for 3-years.
12-07-2018, 05:03 PM
#7
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2013
Position: A320 CA
Posts: 2,297
Originally Posted by new guy
If you are 10, 8, 9....Maybe even 5 years away I'd say no. But retirement. For the rest of your life....."guaranteed"
Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
12-08-2018, 06:21 AM
#8
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: Window seat
Posts: 5,191
AA regionals have a 'flow program'. Currently about 7 yrs to 'flow' to AA. Not an guaranteed interview program, it's a no interview pipeline to a job at AA.
I just looked at the retirements starting in 2026 assuming that you went to an AA regional (one has LGA and the other has PHL). You'd retire around 9,700 in you retired from the military now. In LGA that's the bottom of the barrel line holding Captain for 1-2 yrs (68%, with 99% being the junior guy). In PHL it would be the bottom reserve Captain or 64% on the A330 FO seat flying to Europe. You'd have about 4 yrs on the 330 as FO.
If you wait three years the picture changes. Using today's numbers you might upgrade to CA in your last one. And your anticipated future seniority would slot into the 330 FO in PHL for your last year on reserve.
Basically what you're adding to your career is the best three years in the airline career. If you're hustling as a G4 (777/787/330) FO you'd be adding about $900K to $1 million to your career earnings. What's the dollar value of staying three additional years projected over 35 yrs in retirement?
The peak retirements are 2023-2026. It reduces each year after that. If you stay three additional years almost 2400 new hires ahead of you that you'll never pass.
No one can know how valuable the joy of your current job brings to you. But we can show you the dollar cost, of around a million dollars, that you'll lose but not leaving now. As well as the options you'll have by being 2,400 numbers more senior for every year of your career.
I just looked at the retirements starting in 2026 assuming that you went to an AA regional (one has LGA and the other has PHL). You'd retire around 9,700 in you retired from the military now. In LGA that's the bottom of the barrel line holding Captain for 1-2 yrs (68%, with 99% being the junior guy). In PHL it would be the bottom reserve Captain or 64% on the A330 FO seat flying to Europe. You'd have about 4 yrs on the 330 as FO.
If you wait three years the picture changes. Using today's numbers you might upgrade to CA in your last one. And your anticipated future seniority would slot into the 330 FO in PHL for your last year on reserve.
Basically what you're adding to your career is the best three years in the airline career. If you're hustling as a G4 (777/787/330) FO you'd be adding about $900K to $1 million to your career earnings. What's the dollar value of staying three additional years projected over 35 yrs in retirement?
The peak retirements are 2023-2026. It reduces each year after that. If you stay three additional years almost 2400 new hires ahead of you that you'll never pass.
No one can know how valuable the joy of your current job brings to you. But we can show you the dollar cost, of around a million dollars, that you'll lose but not leaving now. As well as the options you'll have by being 2,400 numbers more senior for every year of your career.
12-08-2018, 06:39 AM
#9
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: Window seat
Posts: 5,191
Assumptions - you go to an AA regional and stay there and flow in 7 yrs starting January 1, 2026. Seniority numbers are based on the start of the year and the known retirements as of today (typically get 10-15% additional per year).
DOH 1/1/2026 1/1/2029
2026 15,000 Army
2027 14,100 Army
2028 13,300 Army
2029 12,635 15,000
2030 12,000 14,400
2031 11,400 13,800
2032 10,900 10,300
2033 10,300 12,700
2034 9,900 12,200
2035 9,400 11,800
2036 9,100 11,400
If you live in Buck's County you'd have about 1+45 to JFK, 1(1:15?) to EWR(limited flying) and 1-1:15 to PHL. Exit 8 on the NJTPK would be an hour to JFK, 30 minutes to EWR and 1:15-1:30(?) to PHL. Move further south and PHL drive decreases while NYC increases.
Seniority numbers and relative seniority in LGA(include JFK/EWR) and PHL
n/b FO (x=retirement percentage @ 9,100) (plug = bottom guy) -
LGA x - 1% PHL x - 11%
50% - 14,000 50% - 12,100
75% - 14,700 75% - 13,100
Plug - 15,000 Plug - 14,000
W/b FO - (777 JFK, 330 PHL) (PHL seniority should go more junior as 787's replace 767's) -
JFK x - 63% PHL x - 47%
75% - 10,200 75% - 10,200
Plug - 11,800 Plug - 11,400
n/b CA (320 comparison in both bases) -
LGA x - 62% PHL - x - 93%
75% - 10,600 75% - unable
Plug - 11,400 Plug - 10,100
NYC is more junior. What seniority hit would you accept to take the easier drive to PHL and not have to cross the Hudson and drive the BQE or Belt Parkway??
DOH 1/1/2026 1/1/2029
2026 15,000 Army
2027 14,100 Army
2028 13,300 Army
2029 12,635 15,000
2030 12,000 14,400
2031 11,400 13,800
2032 10,900 10,300
2033 10,300 12,700
2034 9,900 12,200
2035 9,400 11,800
2036 9,100 11,400
If you live in Buck's County you'd have about 1+45 to JFK, 1(1:15?) to EWR(limited flying) and 1-1:15 to PHL. Exit 8 on the NJTPK would be an hour to JFK, 30 minutes to EWR and 1:15-1:30(?) to PHL. Move further south and PHL drive decreases while NYC increases.
Seniority numbers and relative seniority in LGA(include JFK/EWR) and PHL
n/b FO (x=retirement percentage @ 9,100) (plug = bottom guy) -
LGA x - 1% PHL x - 11%
50% - 14,000 50% - 12,100
75% - 14,700 75% - 13,100
Plug - 15,000 Plug - 14,000
W/b FO - (777 JFK, 330 PHL) (PHL seniority should go more junior as 787's replace 767's) -
JFK x - 63% PHL x - 47%
75% - 10,200 75% - 10,200
Plug - 11,800 Plug - 11,400
n/b CA (320 comparison in both bases) -
LGA x - 62% PHL - x - 93%
75% - 10,600 75% - unable
Plug - 11,400 Plug - 10,100
NYC is more junior. What seniority hit would you accept to take the easier drive to PHL and not have to cross the Hudson and drive the BQE or Belt Parkway??
12-08-2018, 07:04 AM
#10
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: Window seat
Posts: 5,191
Taking the previous data and putting into a yearly context -
2026 new hire retiring end of 2036 -
Four yrs n/b FO in LGA
One yr 777 FO in LGA
Six yrs 320 CA in LGA
2029 new hire retiring end of 2036 -
Six years n/b FO in LGA
One year 777 FO in LGA
One year 320 CA in LGA
Using 2019 pay rates I'd estimate the career earnings of ^^^ at roughly -
2026 - $2,405,000 + $385,000 (B fund, no ROR included) = $2,790,000
2029 - $1,400,000 + $240,000 = $1,640,000
Difference of $1,005,000 + $145,000 = $1,150,000.
My best guess estimate at the financial value of a three year delay. You can't sue me for it, no guarantees of future performance, but it's something to think about. You're not giving up the first, or average, three years of your career, you're giving up the best three years of your career.
How many ball players wouldn't be in the Hall of Fame if they lost their three best years of their career?
The 2026 hire can decide he loves flying the 777 FO and fly it for 7 yrs instead of upgrading. The 2029 new hire would only be able to do it for 2 years on reserve. It's a great gig but being a line holder is a better gig and you can bid reserve any time you want.
Captain? Six years vs one year. Perhaps 3 yrs as a line holder for the 2026 new hire and never for the 2029 new hire.
Ask an airline buddy want the difference that seniority means. It's a big difference. There's no balancing "well he had Christmas off last year so what leave do you want this year?" The guy one number ahead of you gets what he wants, every single month for his entire career, before they consider what you want.
2026 new hire retiring end of 2036 -
Four yrs n/b FO in LGA
One yr 777 FO in LGA
Six yrs 320 CA in LGA
2029 new hire retiring end of 2036 -
Six years n/b FO in LGA
One year 777 FO in LGA
One year 320 CA in LGA
Using 2019 pay rates I'd estimate the career earnings of ^^^ at roughly -
2026 - $2,405,000 + $385,000 (B fund, no ROR included) = $2,790,000
2029 - $1,400,000 + $240,000 = $1,640,000
Difference of $1,005,000 + $145,000 = $1,150,000.
My best guess estimate at the financial value of a three year delay. You can't sue me for it, no guarantees of future performance, but it's something to think about. You're not giving up the first, or average, three years of your career, you're giving up the best three years of your career.
How many ball players wouldn't be in the Hall of Fame if they lost their three best years of their career?
The 2026 hire can decide he loves flying the 777 FO and fly it for 7 yrs instead of upgrading. The 2029 new hire would only be able to do it for 2 years on reserve. It's a great gig but being a line holder is a better gig and you can bid reserve any time you want.
Captain? Six years vs one year. Perhaps 3 yrs as a line holder for the 2026 new hire and never for the 2029 new hire.
Ask an airline buddy want the difference that seniority means. It's a big difference. There's no balancing "well he had Christmas off last year so what leave do you want this year?" The guy one number ahead of you gets what he wants, every single month for his entire career, before they consider what you want.
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
