Which Regional with a looming deployment?
 

We are relocating to PA/NY/NJ area for the wife's job. I am looking at joining the airlines (finally?). I have about 2000 hours rotary and ~400 fixed wing (Commercial AMEL/IFR and meet mins for ATP-R). No 121 time. Have an engineering degree and all that jazz too and no derogatory info either FAA or military. We probably are living west of Manhattan. I know a year deployment is coming for me, but not exactly sure when. So I'd probably finish IOE and then drop 18 months of mil leave between training and the deployment.

Airports:
PHL: easy commute, low/no tolls.
EWR: easy commute, low tolls.
LGA/JFK: without traffic 1.5 hour commute, maybe less, depending on where we live. Living in NJ/NY has a higher cost of living/taxes then PA but JFK/LGA seem to be the fastest path to CA and seniority for the airlines based there. There is a slight chance the wife gets a job in Manhattan or LI, which would make these much easier to live with.

Airlines:
Republic/Endeavor: Best pay and contract. YX has better/cheaper commute, but PHL is more senior. Both not hot on hiring/training delays. Potential risk that if they keep it up I may deploy before my class date if they keep slipping.

Commutair: Current contract is not so hot, but I think I'd be hitting the better FO pay scales (-8 captain) when I come back off mil leave -- if that's still a thing. Contract is up for negotiation so I may come back to awesome pay? Easier commute than JFK/LGA. Potential growth means I could come back to an appreciable growth in seniority and CPP..

Piedmont/PSA: AA WO with flow. I don't think the flow will get me much unless I do something silly in my regional years (which would probably get me barred from low anyways). Easier commutes. Pay just doesn't seem worth it if I get stuck there.

Expressjet: similar to Commutair without the better FO pay on the backside of deployment.

I'd like to fly as much as possible and get to a legacy as quickly as possible, but still be prepared for a slowdown or other action that results in me staying at the regional longer.

Thoughts?

Increasingly it’s looking like flow is a joke. It isn’t like the old days. Too many retirements and way fewer applicants. If you are a quality guy you will probably beat the flow as an OTS hire. If you aren’t a quality guy, they will come up with a reason to keep you from flowing anyway. CPP same, same. So I’d take those out of the equation. But I’d try real hard to get somewhere I could make consolidation time before deployment. Even if you get the training done a lot of junior FOs on reserve aren’t flying much for endeavor. Less sure about Republic.

Fastest path is probably Commutair or Expressjet.



My opinion on it anyway.

I would say AA flow is probable reliable enough to use as a backup, if everything else about that regional isn't too bad a deal for you.

All of the guaranteed interview programs are just smoke and mirrors to attract entry-level pilots. If you can pass the gates for those programs, you'll probably get hired sooner OTS. Especially with mil wings, and especially in the next few years.

If you have any big skeletons (or multiple little ones), maybe AA flow would be the safe bet.

Don't worry about mil leave, do what you have to do. But I'd try hard to finish training and consolidation before you take extended leave. Easier on you.

I appreciate the feedback.

That's kind of the feel I've had thus far. Flow/CPP probably means little for me. With Republic/Endeavor the best case would be to start indoc before deployment and come back 1.5 years later and do all the training fresh. In some ways I'd feel more comfortable doing that than trying to pickup 121 flying after having flown two months on the line before a deployment. When I get back, I should have enough seniority to fly as much as I want with them.

1.5 years seems like an eternity for the regionals, when I look at my notes from when I started thinking about this a year ago, Endeavor paid FOs $30/hr and was looked down on, Piedmont was the big shiny because of forecast 4 year flows, and now look at things.

With the unpredictability on the deployment I face, it could be that I wouldn't consolidate under Expressjet/Commutair or even make it to Indoc at Republic/Endeavor (depending on when they pickup hiring). On the flip side, I could spend 9 months at any of them on the line.

Final option would be to just apply after the deployment, but that'd mean being unemployed while I get my physical up to date and find a class date.

This is a very personal decision - ask 10 people, get 10 different answers. So much depends on variables that are so different for so many people - married, kids, spouse supportive (emotionally and financially), etc.

We had similar stats when I began 121 - I had similar RW, about 1000 FW. I’ve ****ed off a few RW guys when they’ve contacted me to talk because I don’t think I’ve told them what they wanted to hear. I really enjoy my job - even at the regional level - and I think it’s a great opportunity for the RW community - I just want guys coming in eyes wide open - especially guys who make huge family/financial sacrifices to do so.

I began shortly before the start of the RTPs, but something I’m seeing with the start of the programs (understanding that you do not fall into this) is the vibe that “I’m gonna learn to fly a plane, hit a regional, and be at a legacy after 6 months. Please don’t confuse the fighter mil benefit to mainline hiring with the general mil benefit. Yes, your background brings good things to the table, but once you’re sitting in the right seat you will be flying with tons of great guys with tons of 121 experience - LCA, etc - and tons of civilian non-flying experience - masters, business owners, etc - who have had their apps in for years and aren’t getting the call. All this is not to preach, it’s to provide expectation management - especially when I see your two quotes above.

That being said, I certainly can see the WO flow not being the end all be all, but to say it means little to a very low time RW guy...? I would also consider upgrade time. This is a moving target and hard to pinpoint, but you will get a sense for places that are truly stagnating in that department. I decided I wanted to upgrade at my regional for the experience prior to submitting apps. I’m very glad I did. I learned a ton at my regional and continue to learn every day from our great pilot group. I now feel like I’m in a place to comfortably take the next step and will seriously begin the app/prep process.

Again - I truly love most things about this opportunity and I’m not meaning to sound discouraging if that’s how this is coming across. Feel free to PM and we can talk. Good luck!

The 1.5 years being an eternity is more of how much the industry could change. We already know about DALs plans for regional consolidation. In the last year, EDV going from low paid to highest paid. Who knows who the top dog is when I get back? I fully expect to spend several years at a Regional and learn. With the WO/RTP airlines it seems like quite a bit of pay is given up as they are getting the people who need the flow (ie no degree, skeletons, etc..). That said, if one regional gets me to a major even one, two, or three years faster, then that nullifies any pay differential between the regionals.

Concur with this statement. Consolidation is not only simpler for you if possible, but would argue potentially gives you a better USERRA protected position with your new employer.
Whaat? If consolidated, then deploy, USERRA protects your status upon return. Treated as a fellow non military pilot who had remained. If trained, you return to whatever would have occurred as a fully qualified (insert aircraft type) First Officer/Captain that met all FAA and company requirements as a line pilot. There is no more initial qualification requirements.
If not consolidated, you have uncompleted FAA/Company required initial training. You have more of an apprentice/probation status and could be treated differently because were never a fully line qualified crewmember per FAA/Employer requirements.
Is this an issue? Depends on employer and latest market circumstances.
Therefore, rickair7777 statement is wise as best position before deployment.

Regarding which regional. You appear to have a very good grasp of the variables important to arrive at your best decision.
Best in your journey.

Doubtful. CPP isn't anything near a flow.

Meaning, XJT or commutair isn't the fastest path. Especially if the CPP is part of that conclusion.

As it's been stated before, the CPP is just a "chance, at a chance, at a chance....."

Your comment about OTS being the fastest is most valid.

More accurate VVVVVVVVV

Wasn’t counting on CPP at all, more in the training backup at Endeavor and Republic, where I would have recommended if not for the looming deployment. It seems iffy that he could wait for a class date for either of them. What he most needs IMHO is someone who will get him in quick and then get him trained and his type rating consolidated. He’ll have indisputable return rights and build seniority then when he is off on deployment and should be in a good bidding position when he gets back.

Right now it seems like he could get a class quickest at Commutair or XJT and have the best chance to get consolidated, although one of the AA WOs might do as well, albeit at reduced pay and/or bonus. But what he is really going to need for the next level is hours, FW hours, and FW TPIC. Failing to consolidate will - at a minimum - cause him to waste time in training mode again.

That’s my take anyway. Ymmv.

And those could all change by the time he gets himself ready to apply and go.

Besides, even though XJT is now out of the death grip of OO and has aircraft coming, its yet to be seen if they can survive attrition or will implode.