Excargodog

A quick background for those who have never done SEAD.

https://www.sandboxx.us/blog/a-compl...ine-wont-work/


https://mwi.usma.edu/inherently-esca...ne-in-ukraine/

A little research is always advisable before advocating for a policy about which you may not be fully knowledgeable.

TiredSoul

Paralysis by Analysis


You can reason your way out of literally everything including getting out of bed in the morning.
Sometimes a choice needs to be made to do the RIGHT thing which may not be the most convenient choice.
The UN should remove Russia from the Security Council and vote for a No Fly zone enforced by not only the United States.
That should have been done 10 days ago.
Better yet immediately.
Now? Add Iron Dome and C-RAM units.
Interesting articles though, just don’t agree with the conclusion.

rickair7777

I disagree. Strongly.

Cold hard reality: Strategic Nuclear Weapons. The stakes are literally existential for our nation as we know it (and other European nations too). If it wasn't for that, I'd say WW-III... roll armor all the way to moscow and do a regime change (and then quickly GTFO). But we have an obligation to 330 million Americans most of whom are civilians, and few of whom would survive well in a post-apocalyptic world.

I'm all about as much DIME (minus the conventional M) and low-intensity pain as possible that we can heap onto RU... arms, intel, supplies, even JSOC/OGA.

I suspect at this point Vlad has little left to lose, he cannot completely fail or be completely humiliated in UA and survive politically. Basically we're now looking at large-scale war crimes, so he can't even leave office gracefully without fear of extradition to the Hague by some follow-on regime. Personally I don't think any conceivable RU regime would ever extradite a former president but Vlad is probably thinking along those lines... paranoia is an occupational hazard for autocrats.


We (the US) cannot directly engage RU forces... that could easily lead to tac nuke use, and would have the *unintended* effect of uniting many russians behind their regime.

Can a tactical nuclear conflict remain tactical? Nobody knows, and we really cannot take the risk to find out.

IMO the goal here is to make this so painful for RU that they don't ever do it again (in our lifetimes), re-inforced by a strengthened NATO alliance with immense funding and resolve. Vlad has already taken care of the last part for us.

"Painful" may not involve saving all of UA... maybe RU gets to save face and keep some territory in the east, which is ethnic russian anyway. We don't have to publicly approve, just let it slide.

TiredSoul

Putin knows that though so we’ve already been outsmarted.
Xi is next.

rickair7777

A PRC conflict would happen mostly on the water... nukes have less utility there. PRC has invested very heavily in conventional capabilities to counter the US Navy in the westpac... that implies they are loathe to go nuclear, as they should be.

It's also easier to hide and spin your blue-water losses to save face. For that reason I'm pretty sure that PRC will test our resolve in the SCS before attempting Taiwan. And they're patient, they'll wait until the time is right... with enough patience, who knows we might lose interest and go away on our own.

And Xi is outgunned anyway, only US and RU have apocalyptic scale arsenals.

And Xi is rational... he knows the people who prop him up are not interested whatsoever in a nuclear conflict in any way shape or form.

CPE1704TKS

Great analysis from an expert on why an NFZ is a terrible option:

https://youtu.be/iBARgW_vHVE?t=2426

Roughly ten minutes long. Begin at 40:26 (as linked).

Grumble

HELL. NO.

Do this and we’re in a shooting war with Russia from minute one.

rickair7777

He makes several good points, one of which is that a US-led engagement would invariably dilute the current near-global alignment against RU in support of UA. We can probably do more damage with global unity on this, than whatever severely ROE-limited overt kinetic actions we might take with a NFZ.

Excargodog

Yeah. One can only guess how long the ROE would be, and how they suggest we handle an S-400 unit parked in the employee parking lot of a nuclear power reactor. The Ukraine has 15 of them, supplying half the country’s electricity.

joepilot

Reactor containment vessels are pretty strong. I'm guessing that cluster bombs wouldn't do anything worse than scorch the paint.

Joe