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Never give an order you lack…

Old 07-01-2022, 06:31 PM
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Either the ability or the will to enforce. And if it’s a stupid order, you have to enforce it anyway, even if it costs you 40,000 troops at a time recruiting is so bad it’s bringing the viability of the all volunteer military into question:




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Old 07-03-2022, 12:42 AM
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Last sentence says it all
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Old 07-07-2022, 12:43 PM
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Old 07-07-2022, 05:19 PM
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Can't have people who don't follow orders in the military.

Good riddance
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Old 07-07-2022, 07:15 PM
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Originally Posted by DropTank View Post
Can't have people who don't follow orders in the military.

Good riddance
I’d concede the first sentence - with the proviso that they are LEGAL orders.

The second sentence … not so much. Losing these people is unfortunate for everyone.

And the actual mortality rate in the US military from COVID is NOT high:



in comparison, the USAF loses about 100 active duty personnel ANNUALLY to suicide. For the DOD as a whole it is even worse:

580 Service Members Die by Suicide in 2020, New Pentagon Report Says

Sept. 30, 2021 | By Greg HadleyFive hundred and eighty service members died by suicide in 2020, the Pentagon announced Sept. 30, when the Defense Department released its annual suicide report.

Those 580 deaths mark the most the DOD has recorded in at least five years, with the Active-duty component accounting for 384, the Reserve for 77, and the National Guard for 119. In the Air Force, 81 Active-duty members, 12 Reservists, and 16 Air National Guard members committed suicide in calendar year 2020, according to the report.

“The findings are troubling. Suicide rates among our service members and military families are still too high, and the trends are not going in the right direction,” Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III said in a statement accompanying the release of the report. “This is a paramount challenge for our department. We must redouble our efforts to provide all of our people with the care and the resources they need, to reduce stigmas and barriers to care, and to ensure that our community uses simple safety measures and precautions to reduce the risk of future tragedies.”

While the total numbers increased, the Defense Suicide Prevention Office found that the rate of suicides per 100,000 individuals did not increase by a statistically significant margin from 2019 to 2020, assuaging some fears that the COVID-19 pandemic would lead to a surge.

“But that doesn’t mean we are standing by,” said Army Maj. Gen. Clement S. Coward, acting executive director of the Office of Force Resiliency, in a press briefing. “When we start talking about the data and what it could indicate, we have always known that COVID and the measures to respond to it have presented unique challenges that would include risk factors for some folks. That’s why we’re not only continuing to monitor this, but we’re also continuing to be relentless to mitigate the [effects] as much as we can.”

Based on rates per 100,000, the only component to see a statistically significant increase from 2019 to 2020 was the National Guard, which had seen a drop from 2018 to 2019—the increase now puts the rate at roughly the same level it was in 2018.

From a longer-term perspective, though, the Active-duty component has seen a statistically significant increase in suicide rates since 2015, going from 20.3 deaths per 100,000 to 28.7.
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Old 07-08-2022, 08:19 AM
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This should be entirely unsurprising, right?

For the active force, you have to figure most of the people with around 12 years of service or more have decided to stick it out to 20 years and get the retirement. They'll think long and hard before turning down the shot and losing all the time they've invested.

Reserves/Guard, especially the part-time folks, don't have near the same incentive. I don't know all the nuances, but if you're strictly a part-timer, don't you have to wait until you're 60 to draw any kind of retirement? So many folks in the Guard/Reserve probably just said "thanks, but not thanks."
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Old 07-08-2022, 11:59 AM
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Originally Posted by fasteddie800 View Post
This should be entirely unsurprising, right?

For the active force, you have to figure most of the people with around 12 years of service or more have decided to stick it out to 20 years and get the retirement. They'll think long and hard before turning down the shot and losing all the time they've invested.

Reserves/Guard, especially the part-time folks, don't have near the same incentive. I don't know all the nuances, but if you're strictly a part-timer, don't you have to wait until you're 60 to draw any kind of retirement? So many folks in the Guard/Reserve probably just said "thanks, but not thanks."

Yep. And losing 60,000 troops is a lot of pain for not very much gain.



Which is why you ought to be very careful in determining if the juice is gonna be worth the squeeze BEFORE giving an order.

A former senior military official told ABC News that today's recruiters face a great challenge in pitching the benefits of enlisting to young people, with private companies using impressive incentives to entice prospects.

"Many of the things that we used to offer, like the GI Bill, are offered by private industry today. So they're no longer a benefit," the former senior official said.

Even the Marine Corps, which does not usually struggle to find recruits, is under pressure to meet its goals.

"We made mission last year; however, FY22 has proved to be arguably the most challenging year in recruiting history," Marine Lt. Gen. David Ottingnon said in written testimony before joining Cisneros at the Senate hearing in April. "In addition to COVID-19, the growing disconnect and declining favorable view between the U.S. population and traditional institutions, labor shortages, high inflation, and a population of youth who do not see the value of military service also continue to strain recruiting efforts and place the Marine Corps’ accession mission at risk."

Only 9% of young people now show a propensity to serve, according to Defense Department polling data shared with ABC News. It's the lowest number seen in 15 years.

Top reasons cited for not wanting to join are the possibility of injury or death, and fear of developing PTSD or other psychological problems.

But the pool of young people who meet the basic standards to enlist in the military is also shrinking.

Only 23% of Americans aged 17 to 24 are eligible to join without being granted a waiver. This is down from 29% in recent years, according to Pentagon data. Obesity and drug use are common disqualifying factors.

The former senior official, who maintains contact with active-duty leaders, said the poor shape of some incoming troops has led the Army to stop trying to have them run within the first two weeks of basic training.
PHOTO: U.S. Army Reserve Maj. Gen. Darrell J. Guthrie administers the oath of enlistment to Future Soldiers, Ethan Ethan Fisher, center, Darrin Kuyper and Kenneth Stahl at Fort Snelling, Minn., April 29, 2022. (U.S. Army Reserve)

"They have to teach them how to run, and they've had issues with bone density to the point that, when they do run them, they've ended up breaking a leg or worse, a hip," the former official said. "I've even heard in some cases they're putting them on diets of Ensure -- you know, the stuff for old [people] like me -- in order to build that bone density."

A second former senior military official told ABC News the problem is worse than the general public realizes.

"To the average civilian who's not knowledgeable about the situation, they think there are all kinds of kids around. Yeah, but you can't bring them in the Army if they're obese, if they've got a history of drug abuse, all these other things. So it's a much smaller population," the second former official said.

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Old 07-08-2022, 01:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Excargodog View Post
Yep. And losing 60,000 troops is a lot of pain for not very much gain.



Which is why you ought to be very careful in determining if the juice is gonna be worth the squeeze BEFORE giving an order.
As your quoted articles show, the problem isn’t the Covid vaccine. The problem is we are producing a generation of physically unfit people who literally break when put through physically rigorous training. The answer will be a longer basic training course that accounts for the need to take recruits from physically frail, but often obese, to physically fit. That will substantially add to the cost/time required for training.

To your initial thesis that ordering the Covid vaccine: yes, it probably was unwise from a purely military utility point of view. So was the anthrax vaccine. Decision makers make mistakes and the troops pay for it. Welcome to the military. These things happen from time to time.
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Old 07-08-2022, 01:49 PM
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Originally Posted by tnkrdrvr View Post
As your quoted articles show, the problem isn’t the Covid vaccine. The problem is we are producing a generation of physically unfit people who literally break when put through physically rigorous training. The answer will be a longer basic training course that accounts for the need to take recruits from physically frail, but often obese, to physically fit. That will substantially add to the cost/time required for training.

To your initial thesis that ordering the Covid vaccine: yes, it probably was unwise from a purely military utility point of view. So was the anthrax vaccine. Decision makers make mistakes and the troops pay for it. Welcome to the military. These things happen from time to time.


You don’t make an already serious situation better by giving a stupid order, and this was and is a stupid order.
Whatever the issues early on, after Omicron and all the other variants, practically everybody left by this time has already been infected and will have as good immunity from SERIOUS infection as their peer group who were immunized. I would grant you that having given the stupid order, the military has no option but to enforce it, but that doesn’t somehow not make it a stupid order to begin with. There are LOTS of immunizations out there - even quite effective ones against diseases that actually have a high mortality, where the juice ain’t worth the squeeze.

Like rabies, only given to those at actual risk.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...e-after-bites/
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Old 07-08-2022, 06:32 PM
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Originally Posted by Excargodog View Post


You don’t make an already serious situation better by giving a stupid order, and this was and is a stupid order.
Whatever the issues early on, after Omicron and all the other variants, practically everybody left by this time has already been infected and will have as good immunity from SERIOUS infection as their peer group who were immunized. I would grant you that having given the stupid order, the military has no option but to enforce it, but that doesn’t somehow not make it a stupid order to begin with. There are LOTS of immunizations out there - even quite effective ones against diseases that actually have a high mortality, where the juice ain’t worth the squeeze.

Like rabies, only given to those at actual risk.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...e-after-bites/

In the end, the military gets to dictate which vaccines are mandatory and which are not. They can and will kick you out for not taking a flu vaccine just like they will for not taking an anthrax vaccine or a Covid vaccine.
This whole argument smacks of entitlement and victimhood. When you join the military, you know full well that a scenario like this one may play out in your career. The great thing about the US military is that they actually give you the option of whether you want to take it or not. If you don't, great, they will send you home no worse off than the day you raised your right hand.
I highly suspect that the guard and reserve can stand to lose a few bodies these days since we have wrapped up our latest forever wars. This vaccine mandate can be used as a force shaping tool just like physical fitness and whatever other performance based BS reasons they come up with to kick good people to the curb. Too bad, so sad. Take it or don't. Just don't cry about it to the right wing entertainment media so that they can make a sob story about how the president let you down. Be a grown man or a woman and accept the consequences for your decisions.

Oh, and PS, every generation has made the same generalization about the new generation not being up to snuff and tough enough to fight the next war. It's always wrong. Right now we are in a period of basically zero unemployment. The economy is the only thing that has any significant effect on military recruiting.
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