When the troops come home, will it slow down the hiring frenzy?
 

There are about 150k troops over there. I'm assuming several thousand are pilots. Will they come home and start working civilian pilot jobs?

My guess is that the war in Iraq is an incentive to get out, not an incentive to stay in. I think if anything, the market situation will get better, not worse from a hiring perspective.

I don't think any Air Force pilots are currently under Stop-Loss, so everyone is free to get out any time they want.

I don't know about the Army's retention situation.

From what I've seen, there are a LOT of military guys that are getting out because of the deployment rates.

I don't think there are thousands of pilots over there especially FW guys. Guys that are getting out are doing so when their commitment is up or shortened, not when they return from Iraq. I think things will stay about the same until hiring picks up across the board and the pay goes up. It's a big hit in the wallet if your an O-3 or above.

Concur. If you figure the average squadron has 18-36 pilots, depending on single seat or dual seat, and the number of squadrons over there, you're only talking a couple hundred dudes, and of that, figure at least half or more will stay in to retire or try to, statistically minor compared to the numbers of guys the airlines are projected to hire the next few years.

Also, guys will get out to avoid going back, won't necessarily get out immediately upon return.

Navy retention still pretty high but it has taken a slight drop in the last 2 years or so. IA's are a factor, as is the increase in hiring overall. Also seeing a lot of guys getting out to test the non-aviation waters.