Still confused, if they want 450 guys out (in those year groups) but are only offering VSP to 200, how are they going to get the other 250 to go? Without a RIF I mean?

They claim they will have enough people wanting to take ADSC/LADSC waivers and leave. Color me skeptical.

Sorry to ask, but aren't we still at war? Last time I checked, we were ....

'05 year group: That's a 1st Lt, right? Did we not see this train comming only 2 years ago?!?!

I'm a simple man, but a troop cut in wartime? Is this making sense to anyone? Am I missing the "Big Picture," or are we just looking for a way to buy some more F-22s?

You never know, there are a lot of tired folks....including myself. And the airlines are hiring. Still, to leave at the 15 year point is a bit much I think. Maybe vol's at the 12 but really if anyone is in at that point they've pretty much made a decision to get out.

Clipper, you pretty much hit it on the head. With current manpower related costs (read: healthce), the AF has come to the conclusion that it cannot afford to keep current manning levels and recapitalize at a useful rate. It has chosen to cut the former in favor of the latter. The real kicker here is that even if the Air Force realizes all the savings it expects, recapitalization will continue at a sluggish pace at best. For instance, it will take decades just to get 150 new tankers in service. Air Force leadership of the past 15 years has utterly failed. IMHO, the Air Force will fail to fufill what it considers its basic core capabilities within the next decade. Our leadership has needed to inform our civilian leaders of the impending disaster for years, and they have not. Welcome to the train wreck. The lucky ones are being paid to get out of the way.

So, any ideas on what AFSCs will comprise the 600 officers the AF is looking to get rid of? I have a hard time believing there will be any 11s in there.

It all depends on "The Matrix." Last year the matrix showed a -300 overall for 11Fs, so even though my year group was about even, no money. If your year group has an overage you may have a shot at the money even if there is still a negative number for the AFSC overall, all you can do is ask. I was at HPA getting a type rating with a couple of guys who were able to take the money (E-3 and C-17). They are both in the SWA pool right now, so I'm thinking of calling them up and asking for a little loan...just kidding.

Also, while the money might seem like a great deal, if you retire from the guard or reserve you have to pay it back. So, invest it well I guess...if you qualify.

Guys, this is totally food for thought, and nothing to base any decisions on, but, look forward another year. The AF clams they will be shedding another 14k people in FY '09 (for an ultimate goal of 316k total active duty). That will equate to ~2800 officers lost during the FY '09 Force Shaping. If you are denied seperation in FY '08, I'll bet you have a very good chance of seperation in FY '09. There is hope beyond FY '08 if you are denied. That's what I keep telling myself.

Again, total theory on my part, but it makes sense at least on paper. :rolleyes:

Do you have a source for this information? (As far as the 14K goes for FY09)

I am listed in an AFSC as an overage by my yr group so I always wanna know my options.

FY08 budgetary proposal submitted and approved by the Pres. specifically mentions future years of Force Shaping. Plus the AF has already obligated dollars for weapon system recapitalization with the assumption that the active duty strength will be down to ~316k in FY09.

In fact, they originally planned on 309k by FY13, but that will most likely change by a few thousand due to the Army and Marines plus up.