Well this No LAF Maj promotion board in CY2013 - Baseops Forums is going to make things interesting. I haven't seen the PDSM yet, but what happens if someone is passed over and has to wait 2 years until the next (APZ) board. Looks like the passed over people might get another year to sort things out. Interesting times...

So a long time ago, when was Army, it was fairly unheard of to make it past E-6 without a college degree. Similarly, it was unheard of to make it past O-3 without a Master's degree. Maybe things are different now, but I'd bet this is a huge reason why you'd get passed over for O-4. It's kinda like pilots. Unless you have some crazy turbine PIC hours with type ratings, usually a college degree is required at some point (to get on with a certain carrier). There are people that make it through without, but they usually aren't the normal over-achievers like you and me, they are a special breed that got extra lucky or were in some specific situation. In the end, not having that can hurt them or limit them...

Yea, I think its been a LONG time since the airforce allowed O-3s to stay to 20..... very rare exceptions perhaps. Even In my day.. (85-92) it was an extremly rare then to see an O-3 near retirement.

I know a non-rated capt pushing 20. My last job there were a few pilots at that point. Passed over early 2000's but offered continuation. Interesting seeing a capt with command wings.

I agree with your larger point though, pretty rare and nothing to count on.

The upcoming budget cuts will have an impact on many in the military. Continuing to 20 years as an O3 is not likely. Try to get a slot in the Guard/Reserves if able and stay current. Do not give up all of the active duty time you have accrued. A reserve retirement will help later in life.

Despite hearing this prediction over the past few years, O-3's are still being continued until 20.