Pension vs Seniority
 

Looking to get some opinions on a question I'm going to face soon. I'm an AD pilot with 23 years, up for O-5 next year. Undecided whether to pull chocks and join the majors to establish seniority before the folks getting hired in the next 5 years or shoot for O-5 and retire with 28 years but will have that many more folks ahead of me. I know seniority is everything in the civilian world (schedule/domicile/upgrade) but is it worth turning down the extra $1K/month or so for life pension? I'll have even more hours (currently 3500+TT) after the additional 4 years and I'm pretty sure there will still be aggressive hiring. Thoughts?

I'm going to answer with a couple of assumptions. One, since you currently have 23 years in and are up for O-5 next year, I'll assume you're a mustang. I'll also assume you joined at 18. That means you will retire at age 46 from the Navy. I'll further assume that you plan on flying in the airline industry until age 65. Those 4 years that you giving up by staying in the Navy will cost you 4 years at 12 year Captain pay. Delta's 737 12 year captain pay is $212 per hour. That's $848,000 you are leaving on the table by staying in another 4 years. That doesn't take into account QOL items you'd receive by getting a higher seniority number. I'm facing the same decision and decided to punch. Good luck with your decision, you're in a good spot.

It's a tradeoff...take a little risk with the airlines to make a lot more money, or keep the bird-in-hand and ride the navy pony all the way.

The tipping point for me would be QOL at the airlines.

Do you have good QOL now? Can you keep it until retirement? If so then you need to look at when you need that QOL most...if you have little kids, or kids in HS then stability and being home is important now (IMO). The little ones need their parent, and the high-schoolers need stability in school if possible. Otherwise you might want to take the new-hire QOL hit now and enjoy life later on.

But 4-5 years of airline seniority is huge when there's a lot of movement (right now). Those hired at the back of the wave are furlough-fodder.

vbguy,
I did 23 yrs for Uncle Sam and retired in 2012 and am now with a major airline. If you are going to go to the airlines eventually NOW is the time. You have enough years in to draw a very nice retirement check -- pull the trigger, get the airline job and never look back. you will NEVER regret having an extra 1500 guys or even more beneath you. ALL of the major airlines will be hiring like crazy over the next 5 years. That is ALOT of lost seniority if you choose to stay in for a few more years. Oh and by the way, I made more as a 2nd year FO than I did as a 23 year O-5. Pull the trigger and begin the next phase of your life -- it is very good. PM me if you want more specifics. Best of luck.

At the big 3 you will get 15-16% put into your 401k. After first year pay, that is well over $1000 a month. The retirements really pick up in 2018. Ideally you want to be at a major before then. If I were you I'd pull chocks ASAP.

VB, You already have a pension. Won't have to worry about out of pocket expenses with Tricare. Get on a major's seniority list ASAP if you can. The difference in pension as an O4 and three more years at the O5 level will be insignificant compared to the money left on the table as stated above. You have given your best for your country, now it's time to reap some rewards.

The retirement difference is chump change compared to what you sacrifice in the 12+ years seniority bracket. Hard to put a price on QoL, but you're looking at delaying better airline QoL. Then throw in the # of deployments you'll probably have to eat while waiting for the O-5 retirement to kick in.

The only decision you really have to make is do you want to be an airline pilot or not. If the answer is yes, and you're already over 20 then delaying is a poor choice. That said -- you could get hired next year and furloughed the year after. I think that is highly unlikely and I voted with my feet and got out. I didn't have the extra retirement money dangling in front of me, but even if I had I don't think my decision would've been different.

What year is the hiring wave projected to apogee? To me, that's the only number worth giving a damn about in the otherwise random basket case of stats that comprises the "profile" of folks hired to date. If I've learned anything in the decade I've been paying cursory attention to the airline industry is that, getting hired on the back side of a hiring wave is as useful as the runway behind ya.

I don't know what that year number is. The cynic in me thinks it's a lot sooner than people are banking on. Caveat emptor.

American Airlines/US Airways retirements:
2015-285
2016-341
2017-424
2018-562
2019-692
2020-796
2021-830
2022-870
2023-1003
2024-956
2025-938
2026-705
2027-595

There are about 15,200 pilots on the seniority list right now.

Unless your living in base is Qol that much better? Most airline guys are looking at being gone 20 is they commute.