ATP Supply and Demand
 

In case anyone interested, new study on ATP Supply and Demand, to include the outlook on military pilots and their flow to the Majors.

Air Transport Pilot Supply and Demand: Current State and Effects of Recent Legislation | RAND

This study finds there will not be a civilian system-wide pilot shortage in the near-term, though the system will become strained. Low-paying airlines will continue to have difficulties finding qualified pilots. All operators will experience fewer applicants for the available positions, potentially resulting in less qualified pilots system-wide. ...

Sounds about right. We know there is no real shortage of ATPs, just money to draw them back from Home Depot. There's actually an ATP excess in the US according to reliable data.

Thanks for the Cliff Note Cub

That's a long read, I'll look at it on my next Atlantic crossing.

Thanks to the RAND corporation. It seems pretty obvious after reading through it too. Over the short term there will be a strained relationship as smaller operators struggle to increase pay in order to attract candidates, but over the long term the forecast demand will greatly exceed the forecast supply.


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From the article: "United briefed its future demand at 530 pilots per year for the next 20 years with no growth... Another interesting point, based on United data, it estimated 80 percent of former military pilots eventually join the major airlines. It [United] expected to “capture” 15 percent of that pool, or 186 in 2013, making up almost half of its proposed hires in 2013." I think it's interesting to see behind the curtains of what they're planning.

Interesting indeed since many US corporations and businesses only care about the next 6 months to 1.5 years of making a profit. I guess the other 18.5 to 19.6 years will go down the crap hole!

At some point, they will pay for our ATP's and a bonus, not until then will I apply.

Seriously? ?? And how much seniority is that?

From anecdotal experience only, I am seeing far less than that. At my reserve support unit, we have 6-7 recent separations with fighter and transport experience, and zero desire to fly for an airline, or even fly - period.


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Toonces, that quote was from the literature review of the study. Our findings were that only approximately 20% of retirees and 70% of those who separated from active duty pursued a career with the majors. Your anecdotal experience is spot on. The % of ANG and AFR pilots not already affiliated with the majors who later affiliated was much lower.