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-   -   Is inflation looming? (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/money-talk/134100-inflation-looming.html)

HwkrPlt 07-17-2021 12:35 PM

My fidelity advisor said there was some inflation coming, but not enough to worry about. According to him, we're still on the upwards slope of the economic bell curve. The down is in 5-7 years. YMMV.

SonicFlyer 07-17-2021 08:36 PM


Originally Posted by HwkrPlt (Post 3264974)
My fidelity advisor said there was some inflation coming, but not enough to worry about.

You should fire him immediately.

HwkrPlt 07-18-2021 01:56 AM


Originally Posted by SonicFlyer (Post 3265192)
You should fire him immediately.

So you're saying you can predict the future better?

SonicFlyer 07-18-2021 05:59 AM


Originally Posted by HwkrPlt (Post 3265219)
So you're saying you can predict the future better?

It's not a prediction, it's a fact. Inflation is already here, and if you're not preparing/prepared for you it will absolutely damage any wealth you have. Anyone who claims otherwise is severely ignorant of reality (or lying).



https://levels.io/content/images/202...0.12.48-PM.png

TransWorld 07-18-2021 09:03 AM

My investment management firm says this is temporary and will smooth back down to modest rates as capacity opens back up.

You can see it in the economic leading indicator charts. Inflation and unemployment are lagging indicators. It is like accounting tells you about the health of an airline after the quarter or year has passed. Advanced ticket sales, passenger loads, and ticket prices are leading or concurrent indicators. When they translate to accounting results later, many people are very surprised.

My investment management firm is more accurate and does better than most investment managers over its 40 year history.

Excargodog 08-12-2021 01:32 PM

https://i.ibb.co/qmpDkZz/6-E173-C85-...3-D35-A8-C.jpg

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/la...ex-11628707133

Excargodog 08-12-2021 01:34 PM


Originally Posted by TransWorld (Post 3265382)
.

My investment management firm is more accurate and does better than most investment managers over its 40 year history.

That just means it’s overdue for a regression to the mean.

TransWorld 08-12-2021 04:09 PM


Originally Posted by Excargodog (Post 3278472)
That just means it’s overdue for a regression to the mean.

This is one of the most common glib beliefs that has been proven wrong. Over decades it is true, but over the next shorter period of time, a person who takes action using this statement can suffer from the “Great Humiliator” of the markets proving them wrong.

It is part of the reason the average investor, managing their portfolio, underperform the markets. They take the wrong actions at the wrong time.

Excargodog 08-13-2021 07:35 AM


Originally Posted by TransWorld (Post 3278547)
This is one of the most common glib beliefs that has been proven wrong. Over decades it is true, but over the next shorter period of time, a person who takes action using this statement can suffer from the “Great Humiliator” of the markets proving them wrong.

It is part of the reason the average investor, managing their portfolio, underperform the markets. They take the wrong actions at the wrong time.

The common glib belief that has been repeatedly proven wrong is that certain funds or financial advisors can reliably beat the market. The issue is one of ascertainment bias. You start with a thousand funds (or financial advisors) and those that do poorly simply lose out in the market to those who do better and fold. The bottom half of the bell-shaped curve simply gets culled. And culled repeatedly. It certainly doesn’t need to have anything to do with superior ability. Substitute 1000 people rolling dice repeatedly for stock picking and you’ll get the same result. Hence the “past performance is no guarantee of future results” disclaimer.

But on a related note…

https://i.ibb.co/y67SR8D/18-F8-FA89-...01-C0-B6-D.jpg

TransWorld 08-13-2021 08:31 AM


Originally Posted by Excargodog (Post 3278807)
The common glib belief that has been repeatedly proven wrong is that certain funds or financial advisors can reliably beat the market. The issue is one of ascertainment bias. You start with a thousand funds (or financial advisors) and those that do poorly simply lose out in the market to those who do better and fold. The bottom half of the bell-shaped curve simply gets culled. And culled repeatedly. It certainly doesn’t need to have anything to do with superior ability. Substitute 1000 people rolling dice repeatedly for stock picking and you’ll get the same result. Hence the “past performance is no guarantee of future results” disclaimer.

But on a related note…

https://i.ibb.co/y67SR8D/18-F8-FA89-...01-C0-B6-D.jpg

That is not the case with my financial management firm. They consistently rank in the top 1 or 2% of rate of returns over most years and averaged over a long period of time. They have a track record decades long.

Most financial investment firms do worse than the market averages. They are one of the few who do better. It is not just selling the losers to make the portfolio look better. It is not flash in the pan with one year good and the next year bad. It is not smoke and mirrors. They actually have a better rate of return, consistently.


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